Thread by @BigManBakar

The Review: GW 30 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest thread where I discuss the happenings in the FPL stratosphere with particular focus on wildcards:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

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Q: In this section, I analyze Liverpool’s attack.

No team accumulated more big chances than Liverpool this GW so I think it is only fair if I start by rolling the scanner over some of their assets:

(read below)

Salah v Mané v Jota (Over the season)

Mins per shot in the box: 36.32 v 34.76 v 38.42
Mins per big chance: 101.1 v 113 v 104.2
Mins per chance: 26.5 v 29.7 v 29.2

As seen in the numbers, Salah is the best option of the three but Jota runs him close. I would feel...

... more comfortable captaining someone like a Salah, but I believe Jota is an elite option for his price – no one has a higher goal involvement % for Liverpool (50%) in the league than Jota this season. If I was wildcarding right now, I would pick both instead...

... of one or the other. Six of Liverpool’s remaining fixtures are against teams who are in the bottom seven in terms of xG conceded this season, so there is serious potential to be taken advantage of by picking both. Jota and Mané have been at different ends of the spectrum...

... this season. To sum up their finishing, Jota has scored eight goals despite just seven big chances while Mané has scored just seven times despite accumulating 20 big chances this season! Mané is a differential, but I believe he is a differential for a reason – simply...

... because Salah is the more explosive option and Jota offers far superior value. Losing to Madrid this GW was good news for managers with Liverpool assets at their disposal. That significantly lessens the risk of rotation for the run-in. While there is a certain amount...

... of risk of rotation for Liverpool’s fixture v Villa, it was reassuring to see Klopp mention this regarding the Premier League: “My team will fight till the end and we will.”

Salah is top for xG among midfielders over the past six matches and has the Golden Boot...

... to play for, so he is a very strong choice for captaincy this week. Over the last six home matches, only Palace have created fewer big chances than Liverpool so their numbers at Anfield have been woeful – but I believe that Liverpool turned a corner against Arsenal...

... which is why I’d overlook the historical home data at my disposal. That’s just my opinion though!

Q: In this section, I discuss Liverpool’s defence.

Liverpool since GW26 are in the top three defences for xG conceded, xG non-penalty conceded and big chances conceded. The return of Fabinho in midfield has helped massively, which is why I think it is time to seriously...

... re-consider Liverpool’s defensive assets again. It’s been a while since we’ve done so!

Trent v Robertson (GW26-30)

Mins per touch inside final third: 2.51 v 3.23
Mins per chance created: 26.71 v 84.2
Mins per big chance created: 93.5 v 421
Mins per xGi: 217.4 v 478.4

In the first half of the season, Robertson was beating Trent stats wise but over the recent weeks, Robertson has been no match for Trent in terms of numbers. It is no surprise to see Liverpool create almost double the number of chances down their right flank (21)...

... as compared to the chances they have created on their left flank (11) since GW26.

Trent GW 26-30 v Trent GW 1-25

Mins per chance created: 26.71 v 52.4
Mins per big chance created: 93.5 v 323
Mins per xGi: 217.4 v 357.7

Trent’s numbers even when compared to his earlier season averages have gotten far better. Perhaps it’s the Euros to play for which has led to extra motivation in recent times. Nat Phillips at £4.0 million looks to have secured a regular berth in the team and is another great...

...enabler to own, but since slots per team are limited, I would prioritize Trent, Salah and Jota for the upside over him.

Q: In this section, I cover West Ham.

Declan Rice’s injury is a huge blow for West Ham, particularly defensively. Only Spurs conceded more shots in the box than West Ham this GW, which was surprising to see because Wolves are usually very shot shy. Mark Noble has now...

... started five times this season, and over his spell of starts West Ham are averaging two goals conceded per game. This spells trouble for Cresswell owners, who will also be further worried by the change in West Ham’s formation – Masuaku’s involvement as a wing-back means...

... that Cresswell plays more time playing closer to his own goal rather than bombing up the left flank. Lingard continues to defy stats. He has the most goal involvements in the league since he has started playing for West Ham and is in the form of his life. I still don’t...

... think it is a priority transfer bringing him in this GW given the fitness doubts over Antonio. West Ham missed Antonio’s presence to hold the ball up front – his run made Lingard’s goal vs Wolves and it was worth noting that Lingard had no shots ever since Antonio went...

... off. Leicester away from home are among the top three teams for xG conceded, so they will make it tough.

Q: In this section, I cover Leicester.

I look at Vardy and Iheanacho’s numbers since the latter started playing regularly in GW26:

Vardy vs Iheanacho (GW26-30)
Mins per shots inside the box: 90 v 40.8
Mins per big chance: 150 v 58.28
Mins per xGi: 197.4 v 104.1

Only Kane has accumulated more big chances than Iheanacho since GW26. Iheanacho is at the peak of his game right now in terms of his confidence hence it is no surprise to see him score nine goals in his previous ten matches. I was scouring through the Leicester forums and...

... most fans believe that Ayoze Pérez is most at threat from Maddison’s return so Iheanacho should be safe for now. Vardy has just the one goal this calendar year, but the double up on Iheanacho and Vardy is an explosive option for wildcarders as Leicester head...

... into a brilliant run of fixtures from GW32. (WBA CRY sou NEW)

What’s interesting to note is that Vardy has taken over more of a creative role since Iheanacho’s integration to the side. Vardy has accumulated four big chances created over this run which is why his...

... Nigerian team-mate has double the number of big chances than him. 19 other forwards have had more shots inside the box than Vardy since GW26 – these numbers have been alien territory for Vardy given that over the rest of the season, he has been among the top three forwards...

... for shots inside the box. I would wait and see before investing in Maddison – what I have noticed with Leicester is that the bulk of their chances fall to their forwards, particularly whenever they play two up front. I’m aware that Maddison has...

...a Euros berth to play for, but eight goals from an xG of just +3 this season is showing unsustainable levels, even for someone of Maddison’s quality.

Q: In this section, I discuss all things Chelsea related.

I look at Chelsea’s performance against West Brom as more of an aberration than a trend-setter. It was heartening to see Rüdiger restored to the starting lineup in the Champions League despite...

... the training ground bust-up. Chelsea’s clean sheet against Porto and Zouma’s performance against West Brom means that Rüdiger is likely to be Tuchel’s first choice for the foreseeable future. Alonso was top among all players for penalty area touches and top among all...

... Chelsea players for xGi in Chelsea’s game against West Brom. I expect him to start v Palace and then against Brighton again given that Chilwell played against Porto so he’s a top option to own for the next two GWs. Palace in particular is a good fixture – no team has...

... fewer chances created, big chances, shots in the box or a worse xG than Palace over the past six matches. For wildcarders, I would suggest picking Mendy over Martínez despite the Aston Villa double – Villa’s numbers have fallen off defensively and the fixture swing...

... presents wildcarders with an opportunity to gain ground on the significant majority of FPL managers who own Martínez.

Q: Who are the cheap enablers to pick on a wildcard?

Given that the likes of Salah, Kane and Trent would be automatic picks for me on wildcard, some shrewd bargains would also have to be made. With the plethora of midfield options at our disposal, going 3-5-2 or 4-4-2...

... would require a cheap striker. Burnley’s Matěj Vydra at £4.8m fits the bill perfectly – he has started the last six fixtures and has returned in three of his previous four starts. While I don’t rate both defences too highly these days, the likes of Holding and Masuaku...

... are good fillers as bench options for those on wildcard. David Luiz’s injury and West Ham’s change in formation means that both are likely to see game time going forward. Fraser Forster would be my goalkeeper as he is the cheapest one with a realistic chance of featuring.

Q: In this section, I speak about Manchester City.

I think the only person who can write this section with any kind of certainty and accuracy is Pep Guardiola himself. On paper, this is an ideal fixture for captaincy. Leeds are bottom for xG conceded and big chances conceded...

... away while Man City at home are best for xG and big chances this season. Leeds in their other five away fixtures against the traditional "big six" have conceded 20 goals. It’s just a shame that Pep’s roulette is going to take the decision out...

... of our hands! “Against Leeds, we need fresh legs – more than ever” has set the alarm bells ringing.

I would still keep my City assets though, as I believe that they possess high upside if they start. One thing I have noticed with Pep this season though has been that he...

... hasn’t often been making use of his three substitutes in the league games – which is something that could be to the benefit of FPL managers who choose to flirt with the roulette. Laporte I believe is an out of the box option to pick for those on wildcard – given City’s...

... schedule, I believe he is likely to start most league games particularly if they progress in the Champions League.

Q: What to do with Bamford, Raphinha and Dallas?

Bamford (GW1-23 v GW24-30)
Mins per shots inside the box: 27.23 v 48.23
Mins per big chance: 89.47 v 156.75
Mins per xGi: 136.3 v 244.9

It is fair to say that Bamford’s numbers over the past few GWs haven’t been...

... at the same levels as they were earlier in the season. The exact opposite is true of Raphinha – who has had nine big chance involvements over the previous 11 matches. The problem for Leeds assets is the tough fixtures they have coming up (mci LIV MUN bha TOT) which makes...

... a Leeds attacking double up hard to justify. Raphinha has the better numbers but who to sell of the two depends on team structure – there are more appealing midfielders than forwards so that might influence one’s decision to sell Raphinha instead. Dallas has been a...

... great servant to those who have owned him for the previous weeks but in my opinion, his FPL potential from now on remains limited until perhaps the last match of the season when Leeds play West Brom. Ideally, I’d be looking to sell.

Q: In this section, I cover Wolves.

Willy Boly’s positive COVID test and another long-term injury for Jonny means that I look at the Wolves defence with far more skepticism now than I did at this point last week. Boly’s absence means that Wolves are more likely to play...

... with four at the back – a formation where they have been very leaky with. On average, they have conceded two big chances per game whenever they have played with four at the back this season. Since GW20, Wolves have been playing with three at the back where they had...

... conceded just ten times in ten games. Jonny’s injury is also likely to have a detrimental impact on their defence – Wolves have conceded 2.5 chances per game on the left flank with Jonny in the side but in his absence, that number rises to 3.7 chances conceded per game...

... on the left flank. Pedro Neto was impressive against West Ham – accumulating the highest number of chances created and shots in the box of all players in the game. I find his numbers to often be wildly inconsistent over longer sample sizes though so maintaining...

... that consistency will be the key. Whenever Wolves are to score, I think he is the most likely of their assets to be involved but the problem is that Wolves don’t score that many, which is why I believe that Neto is an asset with limited upside but is someone who will...

... continue to tick over. He has the fixtures to be a good differential for those willing to punt (ful SHU BUR wba BHA).

Q: When is the best time to Bench Boost for those who have the chips?

When to bench boost depends primarily on your team. I’d suggest you target a week where your cheap assets have good fixtures and bench boost then. Be wary of bench boosting in weeks which are likely...

... to be hit heavily by rotation though, with Champions League and Europa League around. Then again this is entirely team dependent and depends on how many Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal players you own.

Here is my Fantasy5 team for the GW! I have already spoken about the decline in West Ham’s defensive numbers which is why I fancy a Leicester forward. Redmond has been playing out of position as a striker so I fancy him to beat his predicted points target of 7.5.

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