Thread by @eresc79

1. Updated numbers from #COVID19BC situation report (bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Si…) 🧵

2837 #B117 (vs 3122 predicted), new Rt is still 1.6.
872 #P1 (vs 879 predicted), new Rt is 3.2.

https://twitter.com/eresc79/status/1378419308603174914

2. The estimated Rt values for P1 have been consistent for three weeks now.

3. New numbers from today fit beautifully an exponential growth curve

4. The VOCs are driving the rise in cases

5. With current Rt numbers, predictions for next week:

4,458 #B117 cumulative (232 cases/day).
2,829 #P1 cumulative (280 cases/day).

At the current growth rates, #P1 will overtake #B117 in daily cases this week!

A new strategy is needed.

@vb_jens , @sarperotto , @CarolineColijn , are you getting similar projections?

I'm hoping that the new measures will kick in next week and decrease the Rt. I wonder if any of you has looked into what the expected change in Rt is.

From this calculator from the University of Oxford, the effect of closing some businesses is expected to decrease Rt by about 17.5%, so new Rt would go from 3.2 to 2.6. Closing most businesses would bring it down to 2.3.

Not enough.

epidemicforecasting.org/calc