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Eric Escobar Profile picture
@eresc79
Apr 8, 2021 • 8 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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1. Updated numbers from #COVID19BC situation report (bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Si…) 🧵

2837 #B117 (vs 3122 predicted), new Rt is still 1.6.
872 #P1 (vs 879 predicted), new Rt is 3.2.

2. The estimated Rt values for P1 have been consistent for three weeks now.
3. New numbers from today fit beautifully an exponential growth curve
4. The VOCs are driving the rise in cases
5. With current Rt numbers, predictions for next week:

4,458 #B117 cumulative (232 cases/day).
2,829 #P1 cumulative (280 cases/day).

At the current growth rates, #P1 will overtake #B117 in daily cases this week!

A new strategy is needed.
@vb_jens , @sarperotto , @CarolineColijn , are you getting similar projections?
I'm hoping that the new measures will kick in next week and decrease the Rt. I wonder if any of you has looked into what the expected change in Rt is.
From this calculator from the University of Oxford, the effect of closing some businesses is expected to decrease Rt by about 17.5%, so new Rt would go from 3.2 to 2.6. Closing most businesses would bring it down to 2.3.

Not enough.

epidemicforecasting.org/calc

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More from @eresc79

Eric Escobar Profile picture
Dec 18, 2021
1. Models by Dean Karlen from the @bcCOVID19group. Models from December 16.🧵

BC Total
pypm.github.io/home/docs/stud…
2. Various regions.
3. Northern and parameters used.
Read 14 tweets
Eric Escobar Profile picture
Dec 18, 2021
1. The uptick in cases continues, as #omicron takes hold in BC. #covid19bc

Graphs from @vb_jens 's site.
2. The lot plot shows clearly that Vancouver Coastal is leading the way this time.
3. And it is Vancouver and North Shore where the increase are most pronounced.
Read 11 tweets
Eric Escobar Profile picture
Dec 17, 2021
1. Some back of the envelope estimates on what is to come if we follow current course. 🧵 Image
2. We know that BC had its first cases at the end of November.

3. And we know that BC had 10 cases of omicron by November 27.

Read 10 tweets
Eric Escobar Profile picture
Dec 16, 2021
1. #covid19bc in BC are starting to rise now. 🧵
Charts from @vb_jens 's site Image
2. Log plot per HA. Vancouver Coastal is where cases are rising the fastest. Image
3. Although Vancouver Island also has significant increases (UofVic outbreak?) Image
Read 10 tweets
Eric Escobar Profile picture
Dec 3, 2021
1. A new sobering update on the #OmicronVarient (variant) from the HA in South Africa moments ago. Two main things stand out. The case numbers are growing much faster than before, and the demographics of hospital admissions is changing.



#covid19bc
The first thing that @Dr_Groome presented was the rapid growth in case numbers.
Slides: sacoronavirus.co.za/2021/12/03/cov…
3. A better representation would've been to use a log scale in the y-axis, as you can see that by doing that you can clearly see the difference in growth rates between previous waves and this one. I added US as comparison, adjusting by population. You can see the problem here.
Read 18 tweets
Eric Escobar Profile picture
Apr 7, 2021
1. #COVID19BC cases continue to rise to unprecedented levels 🧵
2. The rise is on most age levels, except the older demographics, a sign that the vaccines are working! (And that we are not vaccinating fast enough)
3. Particularly concerning is the rise in the school-aged demographic in Vancouver Coastal (note that the y-axes are different)
Read 12 tweets

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