Authoritarian party stay resilient because they're cohesive. These are signs the PAP juggernaut is fraying, slowly but surely.…
Less than a year ago, the party stood behind it's leader.…
And Milan Svolik's book, chapter 6.…
And now party elite appear to be caught off guard and unable torally behind a leader (yet).…
Exciting times for Singapore political science. 🙂
A post from party colleague and speaker of parliament. Reads like a political obituary even though HSK remains in the cabinet as Finance Minister.
I stand corrected, HSK steps down as Finance Minister in 2 weeks.
Authoritarian political parties are resilient becoz it has institutionalized channels for cadres to advance careers within a stable system of patronage; creates a quasi-constitutional form of power transfer, institutionalizing & regulating succession (Jennifer Gandhi 2008)
Even if intra-party rules are informal, they offer guidelines for party elite, curbing conflict & minimizing potentially destabilizing power struggles.
Failure to these intra-party rules and SOPs, to steer a transition from one leader to another, could cause regimes to fragment and eventually fall apart (Natasha Ezrow and Erica Frantz 2011).

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More from @tcllee1972

8 Apr
Scholars have noted roles of law and courts in authoritarian regimes, largely as institutions of repression (see Jothie Rajah 2021). However, role of recent crowdfunding to overcome lawsuits/repression in SG presents new & subtle tools of resistance
Another case in SG where the public offered subtle resistance.…
Read 4 tweets
2 Feb
(1) Some rudimentary thoughts (or questions) on the coup, from a non-Burma watcher, but a Southeast Asianist and a student of civil-military relations.
(2) Apparent that the Tatmadaw is concerned about its political position vis-a-vis the NLD. However, I think it is important to disaggregate personal vs corporate interests.
NLD won 396/476 seats in Nov 2020. This was 83% of total; than 70% in 2015. Embarrassing for Tatmadaw, who thought NLD would lose ground after 2015. Corporate reason for coup.
Read 13 tweets

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