Thread by @AndrewPRLevi

Brexit & NI: reposting a 🧵 from early Feb.

Don’t you just love the bemused response to groups angry at the border in the Irish Sea & the lies told about it?

“But they voted for it” & “suck it up, you wanted hard Brexit, dumbos” miss the point.

There is one. Bear with me./1.

Stoking violence is completely irresponsible. Those doing it must stop.

But it mightn’t be a bad idea if the rest of the UK - not least supporters of the lunatic, hard Brexit of which we’re experiencing the early, predictably awful throes - understood what’s really going on./2.

People in NI, of whatever political, cultural or other persuasion, aren’t stupid.

They’re like everyone else: products of circumstance & their own ability to respond. /3.

So, let’s think about a group (no need to give it a name) which emphatically feels a united Ireland would be terrible for them. For whatever reasons. In fact, any NI separation from the UK would be pretty much as bad. /4.

And, actually, anything which reduces the distinction between being part of the UK & part of Ireland (used here to mean the Republic) is, at best, a slippery slope to something fundamentally unacceptable.

How would that group behave? /5.

Let’s consider the Good Friday Agreement/Belfast Agreement, EU membership/ Brexit, and the Northern Ireland Protocol.

The group would oppose the GFA/BA. Obviously. /6.

Short of the extraordinarily unlikely prospect of Ireland joining a UK-Ireland-only customs union & single market, the GFA/BA (as has often been said, & often (incorrectly) denied) is predicated on EU membership of both the UK & Ireland. /7.

Or, as a minimum, their concurrent membership of the EU’s Customs Union & Single Market, or closely equivalent arrangements.

If you’re deeply opposed to the GFA/BA, you’re automatically (if you understand how many beans make five) highly enthusiastic about Brexit. /8.

But not just any Brexit.

Staying in the EU’s CU+SM, or anything even close, doesn’t cut it. You need a diamond-hard Brexit. /9.

One of which hardly a member of the so-called “European Research Group” (no understanding of Europe, propaganda & emotion not research, though, arguably, a group) ever dared dream.

All trace of the CU+ SM has to be eradicated from NI life. /10.

That way, the operation of the GFA/BA, & the all-Ireland effects it’s designed to facilitate, can be made impossible.

It’s clear, now we’ve got this far, that such a grouping in NI would strongly favour the imposition of a strict land border across the island of Ireland. /11.

The well known difficulties of enforcing it, & the likelihood of a return to violence as a result of it, would be recognised, regretted (not necessarily by all, though probably most), but accepted as the price of achieving the main - & fundamental - goal. /12.

So, how would this NI group react when told they can have their hard Brexit, but to get it they need to allow a border down the Irish Sea, separating NI to a significant extent from the rest of the UK? /13.

Wouldn’t they do all they could - while performatively opposing it - to facilitate a deal which appears radically at odds with their interests, but which in fact makes certain their ultra hard Brexit is secured? /14.

And then work to shred the arrangements (the Northern Ireland Protocol) leaving a land border across the island of Ireland as the only available option?

The answer’s obvious.

And it’s what’s happening. /15.

This entirely foreseeable (& foreseen) situation is immensely dangerous.

It was - shamefully - ignored, misunderstood, mishandled &/or lied about by three successive UK prime ministers & their teams. All of whom, still in any form of public office, should resign. /16.

While efforts to make the NIP work as well as possible & to de-escalate rhetoric & tensions are worthy & right, the original sin is the unavoidable problem. /17.

Leaving the EU’s Customs Union & Single Market creates an unsustainable situation for the United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland, & for the whole island of Ireland. One which carries a high risk of being, literally, fatal. /18

It opens up a space in which a group or groups of the sort described (once again, no names necessary here) can feel it possible to reverse their defeat of 23 years ago - on the GFA/BA. /19.

If we just remind ourselves that such groups consider success in their endeavour to be essential, because defeat poses an existential threat, we can, finally, understand them. /20.

We can, also, repudiate their objectives & actions.

But let’s not display our own dimwittedness by patronisingly thinking them stupid or ignorant. /21. End (but see notes in following tweet).

Notes on above 🧵

Originally posted on 6 Feb 2021. Later removed by me, as part of routine monthly/ two-monthly deletion.

This version is lightly edited compared to the original. Purely to improve drafting clarity (hopefully that’s worked!).

All comments welcome.