Interesting analyst PT updates after $GDDFF / $FOOD.TO / $FOOD earnings
While maintaining their Buy ratings:
Stifel goes from $18 CAD -> $15 CAD ($11.93 USD)
Scotiabank goes from $13 CAD -> $11.50 CAD ($9.10 USD)
Raymond James goes from $14 CAD -> $12 CAD ($9.55 USD)
While maintaining their Buy ratings:
Stifel goes from $18 CAD -> $15 CAD ($11.93 USD)
Scotiabank goes from $13 CAD -> $11.50 CAD ($9.10 USD)
Raymond James goes from $14 CAD -> $12 CAD ($9.55 USD)
Waiting to see their model updates once I get the reports, but to me the PT adjustments are due to it being irregular to have a PT >100% above the current price and not have the stock as one of your top picks. (as Stifel's 18 CAD PT was)
The average of the PTs is still 52% above the current share price so there's still a lot of optimism from the analyst community.
Per TIKR, the Q3 topline estimate rose 2.6%, but so far Q4 estimates have declined 4%.
Per TIKR, the Q3 topline estimate rose 2.6%, but so far Q4 estimates have declined 4%.
Q3 estimate stands at $97.18M
Q4 estimate stands at $97.53M
A reminder the Q2 print was $100.65M (+10% QoQ) and GoodFood's biggest market is now under a 4 week stay-at-home order with capacity constraints on grocery stores
france24.com/en/americas/20…
Q4 estimate stands at $97.53M
A reminder the Q2 print was $100.65M (+10% QoQ) and GoodFood's biggest market is now under a 4 week stay-at-home order with capacity constraints on grocery stores
france24.com/en/americas/20…
Looking into the old models, particularly Stifel's street-high assumptions heading into the Q2 print
Total revenue estimates:
Q2: 98.45M CAD
Q3: 90.24M CAD
Q4: 103.41M CAD
Net Loss/Income estimates
Q2: -4.011M CAD
Q3: -2.24M CAD
Q4: 700K CAD
Total revenue estimates:
Q2: 98.45M CAD
Q3: 90.24M CAD
Q4: 103.41M CAD
Net Loss/Income estimates
Q2: -4.011M CAD
Q3: -2.24M CAD
Q4: 700K CAD
Q2 net loss was in-line at -4.03M CAD including the Jan. grocery promo that had a 3-5M impact on gross margin, so on a non-recurring basis there's a case there was a bottom line beat
Topline was a 2.2% beat, so no reason to lower estimates there either
Topline was a 2.2% beat, so no reason to lower estimates there either
There's not been seasonality historically causing Q3 and Q4 to be worse than Q2, and if anything, the Q2 to Q3 jump has been the largest QoQ jump '18-'20 (COVID obviously helped last year)
Revised Q3 estimates still imply 3.4% QoQ contraction which given the new lockdown in Canada, seems very conservative.
The longer COVID affects Canada, the more market share GoodFood WOW gains.
It's not hard to envision a big Q3 topline beat already.
The longer COVID affects Canada, the more market share GoodFood WOW gains.
It's not hard to envision a big Q3 topline beat already.
The 30.7% gross margin estimate in Q3 also seems low given the grocery promo impact in Q2, but I was wrong on the Q2 number, so I won't go out on a limb yet and say the Q3 number is low (yet) despite it being 1.65% below Q1.
Q4 estimate at 31.8% seems about right to me.
Q4 estimate at 31.8% seems about right to me.
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