Interesting analyst PT updates after $GDDFF / $FOOD.TO / $FOOD earnings

While maintaining their Buy ratings:

Stifel goes from $18 CAD -> $15 CAD ($11.93 USD)

Scotiabank goes from $13 CAD -> $11.50 CAD ($9.10 USD)

Raymond James goes from $14 CAD -> $12 CAD ($9.55 USD)
Waiting to see their model updates once I get the reports, but to me the PT adjustments are due to it being irregular to have a PT >100% above the current price and not have the stock as one of your top picks. (as Stifel's 18 CAD PT was)
The average of the PTs is still 52% above the current share price so there's still a lot of optimism from the analyst community.

Per TIKR, the Q3 topline estimate rose 2.6%, but so far Q4 estimates have declined 4%.
Q3 estimate stands at $97.18M
Q4 estimate stands at $97.53M

A reminder the Q2 print was $100.65M (+10% QoQ) and GoodFood's biggest market is now under a 4 week stay-at-home order with capacity constraints on grocery stores…
Looking into the old models, particularly Stifel's street-high assumptions heading into the Q2 print

Total revenue estimates:
Q2: 98.45M CAD
Q3: 90.24M CAD
Q4: 103.41M CAD

Net Loss/Income estimates
Q2: -4.011M CAD
Q3: -2.24M CAD
Q4: 700K CAD
Q2 net loss was in-line at -4.03M CAD including the Jan. grocery promo that had a 3-5M impact on gross margin, so on a non-recurring basis there's a case there was a bottom line beat

Topline was a 2.2% beat, so no reason to lower estimates there either
There's not been seasonality historically causing Q3 and Q4 to be worse than Q2, and if anything, the Q2 to Q3 jump has been the largest QoQ jump '18-'20 (COVID obviously helped last year)
Revised Q3 estimates still imply 3.4% QoQ contraction which given the new lockdown in Canada, seems very conservative.

The longer COVID affects Canada, the more market share GoodFood WOW gains.

It's not hard to envision a big Q3 topline beat already.
The 30.7% gross margin estimate in Q3 also seems low given the grocery promo impact in Q2, but I was wrong on the Q2 number, so I won't go out on a limb yet and say the Q3 number is low (yet) despite it being 1.65% below Q1.

Q4 estimate at 31.8% seems about right to me.

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More from @Patrick_Invests

8 Apr
The people surprised by the selloff post-positive FDA news in $TMDX and $NNOX must not have been shareholders in $MYOV over the past 4 months

Joking aside, there's a lesson to be learned here for some.
With the big positive catalyst now absorbed by the market (whether you think it was properly priced in or not), it seems marginal shareholders now want to focus on cash flows.
All have enormous potential, but the first positive quarter
of FCF for each is currently projected to come in the following periods:

$NNOX: early 2023
$MYOV: late 2023
$TMDX: late 2022
Read 14 tweets
8 Apr
$BC acquires 6 New York are Freedom Boat Club locations. These clubs have >600 combined members and membership has grown at a near 30% YoY rate for the past 3 years…
When Brunswick acquired FBC in May 2019, it had 20,000 members.

At the end of 2020 it had 38,000 members, implying the membership base is growing at over a 50% CAGR (90% growth over ~1.5 years)
FBC added almost 10,000 members in the past year in spite of COVID hampering operations in the spring and early summer:

2H 2019 Growth: ~40% (20K --> 28K members)

2020 Growth: ~ 35.7% (28K --> 38K)

2021 Projected Boat Segment (includes FBC) Growth: >30%
Read 7 tweets
7 Apr
$LPSN With two senior hires to fill the Chief People Officer (Monica Pool Knox) and Chief Marketing Officer (Amber Armstrong) roles…
Knox comes from her previous role as Global Head of HR for the Mixed Reality / AI Platform & Cloud Security / Identity division at Microsoft (8,000 person division) and previous held executive HR roles at Twitter, Sony, CBS Interactive, PepsiCo, Disney, and Verizon.
Knox will focus on continuing to align compassionate and ethical AI as a foundation of LivePerson's culture.

Ethics in AI is an increasingly important area as use cases become more sophisticated, so I like that the head of talent development is directly focusing on this space.
Read 6 tweets
7 Apr
$GDDFF $FOOD $FOOD.T with a big topline beat (all metrics in CAD)

Revenues up 71% YoY to 100.7M (9.75% beat off of the 91.75M estimate which was adjusted down from 93.75M last week)

Gross margin up 14 bps to 30.44% (more on this below but in-line with consensus)
Delivered positive Adj. EBITDA of 0.5M (backing out SBC this becomes 0.9M EBITDA vs. -3.4M in Q2 2020)

FCF of 0.3M without adding SBC vs. -7.3M in Q2 2020

$163M in cash on the balance sheet (33% of market cap)
The most important note from the call:

Gross profit impact from 50% off grocery promo in January was 3-5M. This implies gross margin would have likely been > the Q1 32.3% number had the promo not happened (lower revenues + the above impact)
Read 12 tweets
6 Apr
$BC with two positive developments in the past week.

First, they tripled the size of their i-Jet Innovation Lab at the University of Illinois to support an acceleration of the Company’s ACES (Autonomy, Connectivity and Electrification) strategy
This isn’t going to have an immediate impact but shows Brunswick has an eye on the future of boating in the areas of electrification and autonomous driving
The bigger development was Freedom Boat Club (FBC) establishing its first company-owned location in Europe (this one is opening in Portsmouth, UK in Summer 2021)

FBC seems to be the primary way Brunswick is hoping to combat cyclicality.…
Read 4 tweets
5 Mar
$JYNT Posted an incredible earnings beat this afternoon helping to justify the move in shares YTD. Details below:

Revenues beat by 2.2% (up 23% YoY)

EPS beats by 414%! ($0.72 vs. $0.14E but this was aided by a $7.9M tax benefit)

Without the tax benefit, EPS still beat by 34%
Operating Income up 115% YoY to $2.8M

Guides revenues to $75M at the midpoint up 28% YoY (3.8% above consensus)

Guides Adj. EBITDA to $11.25M at the midpoint up 24% YoY (3.2% above consensus)

Plans to open 80-100 franchised clinics vs. 70 in 2020 (515 total currently)
Plans to add 20-30 company-owned clinics through a combination of greenfields and buybacks (mostly greenfields) vs. 4 in '20

Repaid the entire $2.7M PPP loan

$20.6M in cash vs. $8.5M last year primarily due to $11.2M OCF

Reiterates goal of opening 1,000 clinics by EOY 2023
Read 9 tweets

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