$JYNT Posted an incredible earnings beat this afternoon helping to justify the move in shares YTD. Details below:
Revenues beat by 2.2% (up 23% YoY)
EPS beats by 414%! ($0.72 vs. $0.14E but this was aided by a $7.9M tax benefit)
Without the tax benefit, EPS still beat by 34%
Operating Income up 115% YoY to $2.8M
Guides revenues to $75M at the midpoint up 28% YoY (3.8% above consensus)
Guides Adj. EBITDA to $11.25M at the midpoint up 24% YoY (3.2% above consensus)
Plans to open 80-100 franchised clinics vs. 70 in 2020 (515 total currently)
Plans to add 20-30 company-owned clinics through a combination of greenfields and buybacks (mostly greenfields) vs. 4 in '20
Repaid the entire $2.7M PPP loan
$20.6M in cash vs. $8.5M last year primarily due to $11.2M OCF
Reiterates goal of opening 1,000 clinics by EOY 2023
--
Important Call Notes:
"85% of the system-wide gross sales came from monthly memberships, up from 80% in 2019"
"27% of our new patients had never been to a chiropractor before, up from 26% in 2019."
Rolling out proprietary IT system Axis by early summer
"In October 2020, The Joint achieved a franchise satisfaction index, or FSI, of 75%. This is up from 65% in November of 2018 and 58% in April '17"
"In 2021, we've launched 2 new additional partnerships with media and creative agencies to elevate our brand advertising"
Mgmt. estimates $JYNT has captured 1% of the chiropractic market
Plans to have unit growth accelerate to hit 1,000 goal by EOY 2023. Mgmt. needs to average 140/year and just guided for 115 at the midpoint.
"Units are breaking even somewhere in that 6 to 9-month time frame"
Not planning to increase franchisee IT fees due to Axis but do expect a bump in average revenue per location starting in '22
"Our attrition rate actually has flattened or improved as the overall system"
No plans to allocate cash to anything but growth in the near future
------
Bottom line:
Trading at 57x NTM EV/Adj. EBITDA and 60x Annualized P/E, $JYNT is expensive, but there is serious operating leverage in this business and no competition
Adj. EBITDA was up 74% YoY vs. the 23% revenue growth, suggesting that the 24% YoY Adj. EBITDA guide is low
Like the other growth businesses I own, the multiple may compress, but mgmt. is executing fantastically and the growth runway is very long.
I'll be looking to add the shares I trimmed if I get the chance at a better valuation, but for now I am happy to hold my 3.3% position
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Leverage ratio down to 1.2x Adj. EBITDA from 1.3x in Q3 and 2.8x YoY
All time high renewal-rate of 88%
Guides # of members to be flat or better in 2021
Guides MFI growth to be 4-5%
Plan to open 6 clubs in 2021 and 10+ in 2022
Mgmt. expects 2021 membership, sales, and profitability to be well ahead of historical averages
Digitally enabled sales up 168% YoY
Long-term growth will be well above guidance given at 2018 IPO
"We expect dramatically higher unit growth rates as we push towards 10-plus units per year allowing us to tap into considerably expanded addressable markets and grow share"
129% full year dollar-based net retention (includes a bad Q3)
Cloud gross margin of 61.7% vs. 54% Q4 '20
Significant improvement in OCF
Important tidbits from the call:
"You will definitely see cash flow revert to positive this year"
"51% of software bookings coming from cloud in Q4" (onto the back half of the model transition)
"Triple digit growth in observability"
"1/3 of cloud customers are new customers"
"In Q4, we saw procurement patterns that were closer to what we experienced in Q1 and Q2, and we were able to close transactions with several accounts whose deals slipped in Q3."
"We've seen that when our customers move to cloud, the investment they make in Splunk expands"
$JYNT is going to need a massive beat and raise to justify the 73% YTD performance
This is a solid reopening play with a crystal clear path to consistent 20+% growth, but it's now trading at 53x NTM EV/Adj. EBITDA with 15% Adj. EBITDA margins growing revenues at 24% in 2021
I'm considering trimming ~20% of my position before earnings on Thursday
$JYNT did beat revenue consensus by 12.5% in Q3 and posted EPS of $0.11 vs. $0.03E, so there's precedent for a massive beat and raise
It might take a $20M Adj. EBITDA guide (vs. current $11M) to support shares at $46.
I don't like to trim companies I believe in, but even great beat and raise quarters where shares have not run into the print have been getting punished, so I can't imagine this one goes well.
One interesting angle on $EVO is the dividend-growth story that is quickly emerging.
Mgmt. has a policy that ~50% of consolidated net profit be returned as an annual dividend.
$EVO is now yielding .67%, which doesn't sound to appealing as a dividend play.
However, most dividend paying companies aren't near-monopolies growing 53% YoY with significant operating leverage and a variable dividend policy tied directly to net profit growth
Net profit grew 90% in 2020 (the dividend grew "only" 62% because of dilution mainly from the NetEnt acquisition)
There likely isn't another NetEnt-sized acquisition this year, and as $EVO grows, the dilutive effects of small M&A will decrease substantially