This is a good thread about the MEV War of 2021™️

One thing I will say is that most of the fair methodologies have a downsides themselves:
1. Added latency
2. Lack of guarantees about economic price ordering
3. Extremely unproven in production (similar to ZKPs in 2012)
Why added latency?

Theoretical (@vegaprotocol’s Wendy) and practical protocols (@valardragon) add a >= 1 block commit-reveal from validators OR added rounds of BFT-style message passing. Griefing vectors (DDoS-esque) are abundant + provable models have weak synchrony guarantees
Recent papers from @algo_class and Joachim Neu show lower bounds on these latencies and it is very unclear if the practical implementations even come close to saturating these bounds (Kelkar, et. al get to weaker bounds in their paper)
2. MEV Auctions have 1 nice property: they separate the Veblen good-like bidders (liquidators/arbs) from “daily” txns and guarantee price ordering as a function of transaction _value_ is preferred if auction is appropriately ε-close to DSIC (@suryabakshi has more precise conds.)
All of the fair ordering solutions are oblivious to transaction value / content and only care about consistency of a distributed priority queue vs users expressed preferences/DSIC-style guarantees

Is this better? I’m not sure — user intent now relies on latency more than before
3. Many of the fair order protocols are quite complex with good reason: they’re solving a much more difficult combinatorial problem of optimal ordering of interlacing permutations (one for block ordering and one for txn ordering)

order matters ➡️ can’t do greedy maximal matching
Aside: I once spent an afternoon trying to map the permutation matching in fair ordering protocols to maximal matchings on bipartite Ramanujan graphs (which admit decompositions by interlacing symmetric polynomials), but got stuck and got why Kadison-Singer was *really* hard
Back to the main narrative: this complexity means that we don’t know how well these fair ordering protocols compose with main consensus except in synchronous BFT settings. This is bad for practical Blockchains — not impossible, but will need a helluva lot of engineering
MEV auctions are a lot easier to reason about, especially with regards to how they compose with consensus and even then, one has to be diligent and careful with practical implementations
Summary: fair ordering protocols are a real solution, but they’re far from perfect (both theoretically and in production code). MEV auctions are much less technically difficult and don’t worsen UX as much (which is why I took offense to @AriJuels usage of "theft")
Current fair ordering code reminds me of SNARK code right after the 2012 Gentry paper came out — raw, full of potential, but should be miles away from billions of dollars of assets until compositional guarantees are proven in theory and production
And I will say that I’m excited to see @arbitrum’s code for this – their research + that of @vegaprotocol is definitely the closest to making a convincing argument for fair sequencing chains

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More from @tarunchitra

18 Jan
⚠️ Paper Alert ⚠️

Remember the Twitter argument between @danrobinson and @SBF_Alameda?

Recall how it hinged on logarithmic vs. linear utility functions?

Using optimal control, we show utilities are a red herring

joint w/ @alexhevans @GuilleAngeris

stanford.edu/~guillean/pape…
Flip the problem upside down: LP returns are a function of how close the weights w (@BalancerLabs portfolio weights) are to the 'optimum' weight w*

Arbitrageurs can be viewed as a stochastic control mechanism that moves w around w*

Can you control |w-w*| as a function of fees?
Trad. Optimal Control: Robot/program has 100% deterministic control over the intervention (e.g. moving robot arm)

LP vs. Arbs: Stochastic control plus fees add a wrinkle — the fee interval. Arbs can never exactly get to w* because of fees, yet Martin/Dave show LPs are still 🤑🤑
Read 11 tweets
30 Nov 20
⚠️ Γ Alert ⚠️

What does part of Paul Milgrom's 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize have to do with 🦍-ing into pool 2?

2nd part of our series on CFMM shape looks at:

💹 How do you compare LP return from different pools?
🤼 Quantifying adverse selection in CFMMs

medium.com/gauntlet-netwo…
Post 1 tl;dr: Curvature controls pool price stability

Post 2: Curvature *directly* controls:
- LP profits when asset pairs are mean reverting
- ∃ a magic formula relating LP profit to adverse selection (probability α of LP realizing IL), curvature, and fees for *any* CFMM!
These results generalize Glosten & Milgrom (1984), Kyle (1985) to arbitrary CFMMs

This seminal work shows the shape of the order book represents the amount of adverse selection a market maker feels, leading to strategies where they remove liquidity to avoid adverse selection
Read 12 tweets
24 Nov 20
What does Gauss's Theorema Egregium (1827) have to do with getting rug pulled in Uniswap?

This post (1 out of 3) introduces (only w/ pictures!) new work on understanding constant function MMs (CFMMs) as the primary market for an asset

Part I: Curvature

link.medium.com/RVPG7R85Fbb
Why curvature?

@CurveFinance made it clear that some assets perform better on 'flatter' CFMMs and others on 'sharper' CFMMs

But what does it mean to be 'better'?

Our paper studies what happens when traders arbitrage btw. two CFMMs and look at the max their prices differ by
When we dug into this a little more, it became clear that Gaussian curvature controls a lot of facets of CFMMs:

1. Price synchronization between two CFMMs
2. Adverse Selection for LP returns
3. Price stability
4. Optimal incentives for yield farming
Read 7 tweets
2 Nov 20
As much as I love the Penrose tiling and long-range order (I used to do glass research!), this seems like a terrible idea

1. Diverge correlation times/lengths means time to verify of a single transaction’s validity could take way longer than block propagation

😬😬😬
2. If you want to anonymize a transaction graph by using a lattice with dense spectra (like the Penrose tiling) to define a DAG, note that you aren’t guaranteed that there isn’t *any* local structure that an adversary can find — only that no tx ordering will be unique
2. (cont.) It is possible that prefixes of tx ordering overlap an arbitrary amount, so there isn’t as much transaction ordering entropy as there is from cryptographic graph traversals (e.g. expander graph walks in supersingular isogeny signatures, lattice based crypto)
Read 5 tweets
2 Nov 20
Alpha leak: Adverse selection in Uniswap

This beautifully simple paper proves what @theyisun and I called the “noise trader conjecture”:

Strategic LP strategies only profitable if fees are high enough, ∃ many noise traders, and low signal information

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
This effectively looks at a mean-field, agent-based model of:
1. Noise traders
2. Informed traders
3. Strategic LPs

It shows that as the # of LPs goes to ♾, ∃ a sharp phase transition in LP profits as a function of the number of informed traders (defined via simple signals)
There’s also a kind of curious stability result that is vaguely reminiscent of “rugpull” dynamics: there’s only a stable equilibrium when there are < 4 LPs, if there’s more you have sharp edge equilibria that you can oscillate between (akin to the “last LP holds the bag”)
Read 4 tweets
11 Sep 20
The VC vs. trader “war” of crypto is reminiscent of the previous talent “war” between HFT and online ads: All of these boil down to latency vs. bandwidth trade-offs where "event-driven" investing depends on the condition number of a participants' value function
Trader: need max and min eigenval. of value fn. to be "close" (low condition number) because of regret minimization between your worst and best case outcomes

If your value function is smooth, this gives uniform bounds on the max/min eigenval. of hessian of your val. function
VC: need max eigenval. of value function to optimized

Things like the Tracy-Widom law force you to chase fat tails, terrible Sharpe, and anomalous portfolio construction
Read 8 tweets

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