Last year’s lockdowns, and the restrictions we've lived with since, had two primary purposes:
• To stop hospitals from getting overwhelmed by “flattening the curve”
• To buy the time to put in place a test-trace-and-isolate system that would stop community transmission.
We’ve (mostly) accomplished the first goal in the past 12 months. The health system did not break down.
Now, ICU occupancy stands at 70% nationwide. Flu season is over. Nearly half of Americans have one shot of the vaccine.
Hospitals won’t be overstretched anytime soon.
We never came close to accomplishing the second goal.
There was never a serious attempt to eradicate the virus. We still don’t have a serious system to test-trace-and-isolate.
Community transmission will continue until we reach herd immunity.
What intrusions into the lives of Americans are still legitimate even though their original justifications have weakened or disappeared?
Four broad principles can help answer that question.
1. Restricting Fundamental Rights Requires Extraordinary Reasons
Last year's threat was extreme enough to justify brief restrictions of basic liberties.
Now, it no longer is. Restrictions on fundamental freedoms like the right to worship or assemble are no longer justifiable.
2. Resist the Status-Quo Bias
Once a policy is in place, governments are more willing to tolerate its downsides.
Last year, the status-quo bias made governments too reluctant to impose restrictions. Now, it’s tempting them to sustain restrictions that are no longer justified.
We should be especially skeptical when governments come up with new reasons for old restrictions.
Some now argue the state can restrict basic rights whenever some lives are at stake. But that would provide an excuse for curtailing fundamental freedoms at just about any juncture.
3. Focus on What You Can Achieve Without Restricting Fundamental Rights
Governments can do a lot of good without interfering with basic rights—like mask mandates and enhanced safety protocols for gyms. States can keep such rules in place until case numbers decline significantly.
4. Trust Your Citizens
The debate about which restrictions to lift has almost entirely focused on what the state should command its citizens to do or not to do.
But state authorities can also encourage their citizens to do the right thing.
It's time to encourage, not command.
This helps to resolve the debate over “vaccine passports.”
The government should give different guidance to those who are vaccinated than to those who are not.
But that doesn’t mean it has to be able to enforce that guidance by means of punishments or an official document.
So what’s the upshot?
Keep sensible mask mandates in place. Make stricter rules about ventilation. Focus on less intrusive policies that make a big difference.
And finally lift nearly all of the restrictions that do represent a fundamental imposition on the rights of citizens.
Let’s stop pretending the rules that made sense in April 2020 still make sense in April 2021—and lift those restrictions that no longer have a compelling justification.
In the long-run, America can have one (and likely only one) of two things:
* An intellectual and institutional establishment that remains inhospitable to conservatives
* A Republican Party that trusts experts, dismisses conspiracy theories, and resists populism
Choose wisely.
My position:
Anyone who wants America to be a decent, functional country needs a theory for how to get the Republican Party to be sane again AND conservatives to feel welcome in the mainstream.
(And no, simply waiting for conservatives to die out is not a realistic plan.)
My points do not rest on the premise that the extent to which establishment institutions are inhospitable to conservatives has CAUSED the radicalization of the Republican Party, by the way.
(Though it is, I think, plausible to believe this played some, likely minor, role.)
The filibuster is a relatively recent and arbitrary norm. I don't feel strongly about it.
But I find it strange that the same people who are convinced the Senate is structurally biased against them are also convinced abolishing the filibuster will help them realize their goals.
I get how abolishing the filibuster helps Democrats over the next two years.But will they really derive a partisan advantage from it over a twenty or forty year period?
That question seems to me to be incredibly hard to answer - and everyone is pretending that it's obvious.
Most answers assume the main battlegrounds will be economic and about adding legislation.
It is not at all obvious that either of these assumptions will hold true in the coming decades. Republicans could repeal existing entitlements and pass new laws on e.g. affirmative action.
If you read one thing about the terrible situation in Myanmar, make it this.
Also, let me take this opportunity to explain some of the stubborn factors that make it so hard to raise attention for important issues like this coup. persuasion.community/p/dont-ignore-…
1)
Readers are more interested in issue close to home or that they already have some familiarity with.
Thankfully, Persuasion is funded by subscribers with an ideological investment in these issues, so this doesn't matter much to us.
But even then there's other obstacles.
2)
Myanmar has long been cut off from the world, so editors don't know that much about it.
I have met activists and intellectuals from a large number of countries. I have a sense of who is credible and who isn't. I know who to go to.
It should also make us ask very hard questions about why it took a giant pandemic hitting the developed world for us to give a new technology that could potentially save humanity from one of its worst endemic diseases a try...
Also, there are obviously still a lot of obstacles here. I do not in any way mean to suggest that this vaccine is a done deal.
But, oh man, would it be wonderful news for humanity.