I'm super stoked about this episode. Give Chris and I an hour or so to get it on the channels
Confessions Part XIV (March 2004) - Doom Loop
The narrative continues as we jump from uranium into the oil market, and we get filthy, maybe even dirty...
Why did the scorpion kill the frog? Hey hedges gotta make money... We also look at China, could it be about to turn Japanese? Too early to say conclusively but the Princes of the Yuan are stirring
This week we discuss my journey into 2004, why I stupidly told my clients to "bury their money in the backyard" and what I make of the $1.8 billion purchase of London skyscraper 100 Bishopsgate...not a lot...
Sadly, there's no orgasms this time but maybe, just maybe, i'm contemplating a return. I refuse to let the episode end as the trade ideas keep flowing. Even Iggy Pop gets a mention. Use the chapter headings and the closed caption service to skip to the nitty gritty
Deep dive into the uranium sector and the Archegos scandal and how I was almost tossed out of a plane by Robert Mugabe’s money men during a trip to Africa.
Hedge Fund pirate Hugh Hendry and writer and co-host, Chris Sweeney, chronicle the inner workings of a macro hedge fund
They use Hugh's monthly client letters as a hedge fund boot camp to reveal what he was thinking and why he made the decisions he did, in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals his latest macro insights.
This week they discuss why genius is buying anything!! at the bottom of a bear market. Having shorted chip stocks in 2004, Hugh explains why the electricity of everything means chips with everything. What killed the previous uranium bull market and why the charts are so orgasmic
Every Friday I publish my podcast series Confessions - a boot camp for wannabe hedge fund types - and I play time travel by bouncing from my old investment letters to the present day in search of inspiration. This week I reflect upon time investing. buzzsprout.com/1017043/8215964
This edition is labelled "Loud!!" because I finally resolved the problem with my mike - I'm now positively loud...furthermore I have had an epiphany -I now accept that I can only recognise absurd investment opportunities with the advantage of large swathes of time.
I compare and contrast time cycles, using the 20 year bear market in gold with that for the tech giant SAP back in 2003 - I'm grateful that I could read the entrails in gold but I admonish myself for failing to buy SAP at €10 in 2003 and why I might buy it now for €120...
The creative who’s taken the path of time and space to the end knows that where it all ends, it all begins... Not the beginning, not the end
Me? I’m just movin on with a curious and playful mind. Remember, I’ve seen things you people wouldn’t believe and I’m determined that all those moments won’t be lost in time. These aren’t tears in the rain and this isn’t a time to die...we got bull and bear markets to discover
Bear-to-Infinity? Few people remember my transformation to the bullish camp at the end of 2013 with SPX bubbling under 2k. Here’s an extract from the letter that caused a billion $s to walk. No one could handle a bullish moi...
Bob Ryan, from the US cable TV show Entourage. The show chronicles the workings of Hollywood
and Ryan is a legendary movie producer credited with a string of box office winners. His problem
is that his success was rather a long time ago.
So no one is certain of his skills anymore. He makes seemingly absurd promises – think along the lines of "...what if I were to tell
you that this movie will cost peanuts to make, will earn you four Oscars and will gross $100m...is that something you might be interested in?"
The 2 sides of a speculator. The first is the moment when I knew that my end was nigh. I found myself at a macro conference in Barcelona in 2017. My guys literally begged for the organising bank to let us in...
I spent 2 days in this cubicle pitching to low quality macro investors. Track record? Uncorrelated and positive carry returns over 15 years...convex too, which is too say i made a lot more than I ever lost. Yeah sure but how do you spell the name of the fund? You got a pen?
There was a time when i thought that to speculate you had to be a nihilist set on destruction - tu consens ou plutôt aspires à ta ruine?? That you had to yearn for your own demise..? Hold on..? Perhaps I succeeded?
I got to thinking like this owing to some scrapes with death when i climbed Big Mountains. I can recall the perilous position of climbing steep ice gradients many thousands of metres high in the French Alps.
You would leave the mountain hut at 2 am high on adrenalin with your flickering head torch and ice picks. Boy, did nature reveal its majesty and glory at those moments when the sun began to tentatively rise and spread a glimpse of the new day across the inky black horizon.