Thread by @TheCareFreeBear

1/ #finanstwitter #pratapengar Great update on @RaoulGMI thinking! He is indeed right that we, to some extent, have to rethink valuation in the light of the dynamics of the monetary system. I am not betting that much on the next hot/new things..

2/..since these things require too much energy to try to capture. Rather I try to be on top of the political impact on markets, which requires much less precision imo.

We might get a big drop in markets which is indeed the consensus view atm, but there is also the chance that..

3/.." powers that be" powers through. They are after all smart people, regardless of what big parts of #fintwit say. Neither China nor the US has anything to gain on a "collapse" and they control the levers to some extent..

4/..The trick is to understand how they will tread the needle and how this will impact asset markets. A very complicated task with a lot of moving parts, hence one has to have a solid framework to navigate is..

5/Here is the intro to my notes where I collected the biggest pieces of the puzzle

nonlinearexpectations.blogspot.com/p/introduction…

Look into it and hit me with your best shot!That's how I like to learn, the hard way some might say, losing money is harder imo /end

Thanks @RaoulGMI and @AshBennington