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10 Apr, 9 tweets, 3 min read
THREAD: For everyone who is making an argument akin to, "If Elon says it, then Karpathy must agree, and it must be true", let's take a look at just a tiny bit of the past five years of statements from Elon about FSD.
Remember back in early 2018 when you gained the ability to summon your car from NY to LA?

Okay okay, maybe that didn't happen, but remember when Tesla did it for real in 2019?

Remember how Elon sold people on the concept of self-driving based on a video of zero-interventions hands-free drives... back in 2016?

Okay, but as of 2019, they were going to get half a million robotaxis in 2020, right?

Hey, Smart Autopark coming in 2019 (as of 2018)...

Look, I'm not saying this to be mean. I do think FSD will *eventually* be achieved. But Elon clearly has some blind spots here with respect to FSD, based on his worldview of near-term AI singularities. He seems to feel that self-driving should need no better sensors than humans..
... use to self-drive - ignoring that (despite the fact that our eye "sensors" are actually pretty amazing), the human brain is, and will for the foreseeable future remain, a *vastly* superior processing and reasoning device than any AP computer. AP needs any leg-up it can get.
TL/DR: anyone making an "Elon Knows Best" argument-to-authority really should take a look at his past statements and how they panned out.

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More from @enn_nafnlaus

Nafnlaus Profile picture
12 Apr
@AukeHoekstra @truth_tesla Huh? Corrosion is one of molten salt's *biggest* problems. And thorium does nothing with respect to corrosion (it's also very immature and has a lot of problems).

But that's just the start of problems.

First off is the fact that you're dealing with toxic materials. And not...
@AukeHoekstra @truth_tesla toxic in the normal sense, but *insanely* toxic, where even vanishingly small amounts of many radioisotopes, quantities you wouldn't give a rat's arse about in any other industry, are too unacceptably toxic for release.

Nuclear produces a broad spectrum of all sorts of these...
@AukeHoekstra @truth_tesla insanely toxic compounds, and each has its own physical and chemical properties. It can be a solid, a liquid, a gas, mobile or immobile in salt, mobile or immoble in water, compatible with steel but not alumium, compatible with alumium but not steel, compatible with this alloy...
Read 14 tweets
Nafnlaus Profile picture
2 Apr
A friendly old man lives near me and occasionally comes up to chat. Earlier this year we idly started talking about the stock market and I mentioned how well $TSLA had performed and why I think the company was so promising. Just idle chit chat.

Fast forward to the other day. I..
... am outside working on my greenhouse-trailer and he comes up to chat. He brings up Tesla again, and mentions that the price was down to $600. I smile and mention that one who invested at orders of magnitude lower prices hardly loses sleep over these sort of swings. Then...
...he seemed a little nervous and informs me that, based on what I had told him in our previous chat, he had bought $TSLA at $800, only to see it crash (I had no idea he was thinking about investing).

This is a guy who has never even heard of Model Y or Cybertruck. No clue...
Read 5 tweets
Nafnlaus Profile picture
11 Mar
Thought: while not applicable to their initial purchases, @elonmusk may eventually end up with sea launch platforms that have no "platform" at all - just a tower.

Consider the new "rocket catching" approach. It's intriguing; it lets you cut a lot of mass off the rocket while...
letting you use as massive of a shock absorption system as you can dream up. Furthermore, a landed rocket cannot fall over. So long as it can navigate into roughly the right place, it's a good landing.

Now let's consider sea launch with a platform.

(1) Arm catches SH ...
(2) Arm rotates, sets it down
(3) Some sort of strongback attaches to it to keep it stable and reconnect GSE.
(4) Arm catches Starship
(5) Arm aligns Starship with SH for remating. SH isn't attached to the tower, so this may take adjustment.
(6) Something connects GSE to Starship
Read 10 tweets
Nafnlaus Profile picture
10 Mar
Hey @Transport_EU, @AdinaValean - exactly why is your
Team Leader for Automated/Connected Vehicles and Safety sharing an attack article sourced from a short seller against a company he's in charge of regulating? linkedin.com/feed/update/ur…

The bias was obvious, but this is blatant
Please tell me that the guy in charge of approving features knows the difference between an SAE level (what the vehicle *makes the driver do*, for whatever regulatory or liability reasons) vs. how good it actually is at driving.
Please tell me that the guy in charge of approving features knows that mandating driver attention for "FSD City Streets" (aka "FSD Beta") has *always been the case*, would have been a shock if it wasn't going to be in wide release, and that "FSD Beta" != "FSD".
Read 6 tweets
Nafnlaus Profile picture
15 Feb
Fascinating read from Jason about the Model S/X range loss issue. My initial take (and apparently his initial take as well) was wrong; I had interpreted charging limits then range loss as being due to new data about degradation with the new Si-bearing anodes, with concerns about
... longevity and fires. The media reporting on fires also affected Jason, misleading him into initially thinking it was an overvoltage issue.

Turns out it was due to sporadic misreadings of the voltage of individual cell groups, and the inability to distinguish them from...
A) legitimate voltage spikes, or B) a stuck MOSFET causing cell misbalancing. With no way to tell if the transients were real, they had to assume they were. Voltages were limited to the peak spike voltage, and the user's range indicator was switched to use the value calculated...
Read 8 tweets
Nafnlaus Profile picture
30 Jan
Tesla's new steering yoke appears to be analogous to an airplane steering yoke. But an airplane's yoke does not only control roll, but also pitch. Indeed, there's the potential for *five* extra axes (up-down, left-right, front-back, & two extra roll axes)

Why do I bring this up?
In normal driving, I expect most drivers to prefer a traditional locked steering position. But we must remember that ***Plaid has three independent motors now***. The car is capable of so much more than traditional handling; it should even be able to do stunts like spin in place.
The degrees of freedom get even more extreme when you get to the Roadster with the SpaceX options package. Now you have *every degree of freedom possible* in terms of maneuvering.

How do you control this with just a roll-only steering wheel? Answer: you can't.
Read 5 tweets

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