Another study showing re-infection rare after natural infection. "Establishing whether reinfection is typically symptomatic or asymptomatic, whether reinfected individuals are infectious, and expected duration" of immunity from infection vs vax paramount thelancet.com/journals/lance…
From awesome SIREN study, which is prospective cohort study in staff working in NHS hospitals across UK (giving us great info about vaccine effectiveness too). Lancet asked for "prior evidence" before this study & re-infection up to Nov 15, 2020 rare - 24 documented infections.
25,661 participants with linked data on antibody and PCR included. If had prior infection (documented by antibodies, T cells not measured), re-infection rare. 1859 new infections: 1704 in the negative cohort & 155 reinfections in the positive cohort. Symptoms among re-infections?
One half (76) of asymptomatic (lots of asymptomatic screening); 1/3 (50) with typical COVID-19 symptoms; the others (28) with atypical symptoms. 17383 participants in negative cohort so that is 0.4% rate of symptomatic COVID-19 (generously including those with atypical symptoms)
if you have had #covid19, very rare to get re-infection. B117 increased prevalence during study but didn't change finding. So, 93% lower risk of COVID infection after natural infection, after 7 months of follow-up (7 months); implications for long-lasting immunity with vax too
Again, I don't think we know if vaccines will increase durability of immunity after #covid19 but I think compromise is to take one dose - see this thread: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1378768…
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Good news. Vaccines defanging virus. Public data showing reductions in hospitalizations among those who got vax first (older) very prominent. U.S. Total, Last 7 Days Hospital Admissions, 4/9/21, 37,519 vs. 45,003 2/24/21, -17% (7.5k reduction) healthdata.gov/Health/COVID-1…
Hospitalizations per case (H/c) ratios:
70+ 4/9/21 9,741 vs. 2/24/21, 17,019: -43% (7.4k reduction)
60-69 4/9/21 7,464 vs. 2/24/21, 9,310: -20% (1.8k reduction)
50-59 4/9/21 7,100 vs. 2/24/21 6,677 or +6% (0.4k increase)
40-49 4/9/21 4,587 vs. 2/24/21 3,975 or +15% (0.6k increase
30-39 4/9/21 3,396 vs. 2/24/21 2,885: +18% (0.5k increase)
18-29 4/9/21 2,363 vs. 2/24/21 2,139:+8% (0.2k increase)
Under 18 4/9/21 843 vs. 2/24/21 1,020: -17% (0.2 reduction)- phew
Unknown, 4/9/21 2,120 vs. 2/24/21 1,919:+10% (0.2 increase)
We proposed metrics when restrictions could be safely lifted in states- which are1) high rates of vaccination & 2) getting down to 5 hospitalizations per 100,000. Wanted to list where each state is in hospitalization metric (surge vaccine to those highest) washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/0…
4/3/21 HHS COVID-19 Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Report and COVID Tracking Project (for pandemic peaks):
Total U.S. Total: 15 hospitalizations per 100k; peak of pandemic was 64 per 100k, as of 4/3/21 we are at 23% of the pandemic peak
MI: 34 per 100k; peak of pandemic was 54 per 100k so at 63% of pandemic peak
DC: 33 per 100k; peak was 84 per 100k so at 39% of pandemic peak
NY: 32 per 100k; peak was 123 per 100k so at 26% of pandemic peak
NJ: 31 per 100K; peak was 116 per 100k so at 27% of peak
MD: 27 per 100k
Let's talk B117 and why I don't think this variant is going to deter our progress. What are 3 things you worry about with a variant? 1) Increased transmissibility; 2) Increased virulence; 3) Can escape immunity from your vaccine (or natural infection). Let's take them 1 at a time
1) Increased transmissibility: There is lab data showing higher viral loads with this variant in nose so could be more infectious. However please look at epidemiology on world stage and in U.S. to make your decisions. UK tamped down virus with vaccines with 90% of their strains
being B117 and never saw their dreaded surge once vaccine roll-out started; 2) Israel started rolling out vaccine with 80% of strains being B117, saw surge as we are seeing in some states here (will get to that in min.) but then tamped down with vaccine pfizer.com/news/press-rel…
Why should we not worry about VARIANTS "escaping" immunity from vaccines or natural infection; why are we not likely to need vaccine BOOSTERS? Remember immunity is both antibody and cell-mediated (CD4 and CD8 cells). Long-term immunity mediated by memory B & T cells (both get
stimulated if they see the virus again). We now feel secure that T-cell immunity will be preserved against variants after these 2 papers reassured us. Sette's great paper showing T-cell immunity after natural infection or mRNA vaccination preserved against biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
B.1.1.7 (UK), B.1.351 (South Africa), P.1 (Brazil), and CAL.20C (California). Means T cells generated by vaccines can readily fight these variants. 2nd paper is by Dr. Redd one showing that CD8 responses preserved despite spike protein mutations academic.oup.com/ofid/advance-a…
Let's look at CDC data on "inflection point". Is there a pattern emerging whereby those who are getting close to 40% 1st dose vax rate are seeing turn-around in cases (read below on inflection point). We've already seen hospitalizations per case decrease threadreaderapp.com/thread/1378411…
due to vaccinations, which is why we know B117 is not creating more virulence (not more hospitalizations per case) although certainly seems more transmissible which is why you want to vax FAST with your restrictions. Data sources: beta.healthdata.gov/browse & covidtracking.com/data/state/tex…
&, Let's look at
*7 day average of cases, comparing to an earlier 7 day average, to get test/positivity rate comparison from different times during the pandemic.
*Number of days in a downward trajectory.
*Positivity rate by week for the last 6 weeks nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Wanted to address question of "should I get vaccinated if I have had #covid19"?. Fair question given that immunity likely long-lived from natural infection per this study from Drs. Weiskopf, Sette, & Shane Crotty from the La Jolla Institute for Immunology nih.gov/news-events/ni…
And other evidence laid out in this thread. However, I would take the vaccine (1 dose) if I had COVID-19 in the past personally. Why? Because I hate COVID and vax can serve as major immune response booster when a virus is still circulating at high rates threadreaderapp.com/thread/1368679…
See difference between now & any other time in history is that we are giving out vaccine AS CASES are still circulating high rates. So unprecedented! In fact those who had chickenpox as child (like me, I am old enough!) were not offered VZV vax because I have natural immunity