Thread by @MonicaGandhi9

Let's look at CDC data on "inflection point". Is there a pattern emerging whereby those who are getting close to 40% 1st dose vax rate are seeing turn-around in cases (read below on inflection point). We've already seen hospitalizations per case decrease
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1378411…

due to vaccinations, which is why we know B117 is not creating more virulence (not more hospitalizations per case) although certainly seems more transmissible which is why you want to vax FAST with your restrictions. Data sources: beta.healthdata.gov/browse & covidtracking.com/data/state/tex…

&, Let's look at
*7 day average of cases, comparing to an earlier 7 day average, to get test/positivity rate comparison from different times during the pandemic.
*Number of days in a downward trajectory.
*Positivity rate by week for the last 6 weeks
nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Clear trends:
** If state is having orange "substantial" or below transmission, has reached the tipping point. "Substantial" transmission rate on cases is not same now as in the fall, due to the level of testing. NYT tool shows us cases are low & staying low in those states

**COVID is 5% of all hospitalization in the U.S. total, so about 12 per 100,000 population (lower than 20-40 per 100K seen in influenza although these are effective vaccines so will get lower still and should). This statistic alone should give lots of confidence in vaccines

Because cases, positivity rate, and hospitalization thresholds don't align and case data messy (recent datadump in NJ), if we look at inpatient hospitalizations as metric, 4 states are rated yellow "Moderate" Transmission & 46 are rated Light/dark Green or "Low Transmission"

These states seem at infection point: TX, KY, GA, AZ, NC, ID, TN, MT, UT, WY, NV, MO, OK, NM, LA, MS, AL, KS, CA, AR, MA, OH, MN, VA, CO, WA, IN, SC, WI, IA, RI, NH, NE, ME, SD, VT, ND, DC, HI, FL, IL, DE, AK where cases will fall if haven't in 3 weeks. MI, NJ, NY, PA, MD had

more complicated vax start-up & could MI have less natural immunity due to muted surges? Let's compare TX vs Mississippi vs CA now.
TEXAS
7 day avg of cases thru 4/2/21 -- 3,825 (Orange -- Substantial)
7 day avg of cases close historically -- 3,699 on 9/13/20 (Orange)

4/2/21 7 day avg positivity rate- 5.2% (Yellow - Moderate); 9/13/20 7 day avg positivity rate - 11.8% (Light Red -- High); # days in downward trajectory 68 (Almost same # of cases on more tests, so threat not the same as in Sept, but CDC metrics defer to highest threat level)

MISSIPPIPPI
7 day avg of cases thru 4/2/2 213 (Orange -- Substantial)
7 day avg of cases close historically - 219 on 4/22/20 (Orange)
4/2/21 7 day avg positivity rate -- 4.1% (Light Green)
10/3/20 7 day avg positivity rate -- 9.8% (Yellow)
Number of days in downward trajectory 76

CALIFORNIA
7 day avg of cases thru 4/2/21 2,479 (Yellow - Moderate) v 7 day avg of cases close historically -2,469 on 5/30/20 (Yellow)
4/2/21 7 day avg positivity rate- 1.7% (Dark Green)
5/30/20 7 day avg positivity rate- 4.6% (Light Green)
Number of days downward trajectory, 73

Trends true of multiple states, getting to inflection point. So, let's be nuanced, chiseled about our messaging about 4th surge, concentrate on states that need our help in surging vaccines there + give 1st dose first. Pandemic quite remarkably changing with vax; hope #s clear