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Smartkarma

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11 Apr, 6 tweets, 1 min read

Thai IPO raising $750m: Ngern Tid Lor (NTL) jointly owned by CVC and Bank of Ayudhya (BAY TB) with 16pc market share.

Impressive track record: 2016-20, gross l25.1% CAGR, total income 22.5% CAGR, while PAT did better with a CAGR of 29.1% over 2016-20.

Gets better: 2010-20, its total income has increased by 12.6x, branch network by 6x and receivables by 18x. That implies a CAGR of 28.9% for total income, 19.6% for branches and 33.5% for receivables.

Covid saw some branch closures, and special mention loans jumped. But to be expected.

Look across to $BFIN.IJ in Indonesia for a similar/cheaper exposure too.

Detailed analysis on Smartkarma (paywalled) skr.ma/N9mBw

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Smartkarma

@smartkarma

13 Apr

💡 IDEAL $KBANK.TB - consensus Thai O/W, seen as a digital aspirant. However, Brian spots two flies in the ointment. Stock has doubled from 2020 lows, so this is worth noting.
(1/n)

1. foreign line highly likely deletion from MSCI at upcoming MAY SAR - Deletion of the foreign line would require passive funds to sell 87m shares...

2. There is also a possibility of a reduction in the Foreign Inclusion Factor (FIF) on the Non Voting Depository Receipt (NVDR) line if the foreign room stays below 15% on the price cutoff date. This would necessitate selling of around 22m shares.

Read 6 tweets

Smartkarma

@smartkarma

12 Apr

BABA: opens +9% and continuing to trade VERY strong in HK today. Market realising pendulum swung too far, and starting to fade the risk premia here. (Chart: BABA vs TENCENT intraday)

Putting things into perspective: since November, Media frenzy and Investor panic wiped $260bn in value.

Meanwhile, 4Q was historic high Q-rev growth +37% Y/Y, historic high core commerce EBITDA, and historic high quarterly op profit. Clodu turned profitable, and Cainiao positive OCF also.

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Smartkarma

@smartkarma

5 Apr

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$TME major breakout in bullish sentiment on @smartkarma - independent research loves an opportunity when it sees one. (1/n)

Share price remained subdued into end of week - last dregs of the Archegoa spillover.

@KerrisdaleCap

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Smartkarma

@smartkarma

31 Mar

We are seeing growing Enquiries from EM investors looking to switch at least part of their EM Asia exposure into an Asia ex-China benchmark.

iShares MSCI Asia ex China AUM has doubled in just a couple of months. In the grand scheme still small at $420m but is this a coincidence this coincides with recent Geopolitical tension?