BABA: opens +9% and continuing to trade VERY strong in HK today. Market realising pendulum swung too far, and starting to fade the risk premia here. (Chart: BABA vs TENCENT intraday)
Putting things into perspective: since November, Media frenzy and Investor panic wiped $260bn in value.
Meanwhile, 4Q was historic high Q-rev growth +37% Y/Y, historic high core commerce EBITDA, and historic high quarterly op profit. Clodu turned profitable, and Cainiao positive OCF also.
SO, you now get BABA on 4 year valuation lows, at extreme lows vs Tencent, and with net cash of $52bn!
Wium Malan brings this together: Current Alibaba share price implies a fair value, for their 33% equity stake in the Ant Group, of roughly negative $113bn! skr.ma/W526n (paywalled)
@threadreaderapp unroll $BABA thread pls

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More from @smartkarma

13 Apr
💡 IDEAL $KBANK.TB - consensus Thai O/W, seen as a digital aspirant. However, Brian spots two flies in the ointment. Stock has doubled from 2020 lows, so this is worth noting.
(1/n) Image
1. foreign line highly likely deletion from MSCI at upcoming MAY SAR - Deletion of the foreign line would require passive funds to sell 87m shares...
2. There is also a possibility of a reduction in the Foreign Inclusion Factor (FIF) on the Non Voting Depository Receipt (NVDR) line if the foreign room stays below 15% on the price cutoff date. This would necessitate selling of around 22m shares.
Read 6 tweets
11 Apr
Thai IPO raising $750m: Ngern Tid Lor (NTL) jointly owned by CVC and Bank of Ayudhya (BAY TB) with 16pc market share.
Impressive track record: 2016-20, gross l25.1% CAGR, total income 22.5% CAGR, while PAT did better with a CAGR of 29.1% over 2016-20.
Gets better: 2010-20, its total income has increased by 12.6x, branch network by 6x and receivables by 18x. That implies a CAGR of 28.9% for total income, 19.6% for branches and 33.5% for receivables.
Read 6 tweets
5 Apr
$TME major breakout in bullish sentiment on @smartkarma - independent research loves an opportunity when it sees one. (1/n)
Share price remained subdued into end of week - last dregs of the Archegoa spillover.
Conviction investors like @KerrisdaleCap have started to pickup stock.
Read 8 tweets
31 Mar
We are seeing growing Enquiries from EM investors looking to switch at least part of their EM Asia exposure into an Asia ex-China benchmark.
iShares MSCI Asia ex China AUM has doubled in just a couple of months. In the grand scheme still small at $420m but is this a coincidence this coincides with recent Geopolitical tension?
The impact on EM Asia ex China country weights is absolutely enormous. TWN and KOR could go beyond 30pc while India post 20pc.
Read 6 tweets

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