NEW: This district has been a hot spot for political movements that have tracked the national mood for a decade. Now, @SpanbergerVA07 sees temperatures cooling.

A fleeting calm? Or a roadmap for Dems to buck the midterm curse?

My report from VA07 👇

nbcnews.com/politics/polit…
Virginia-07 has been a unique kind of bellwether: It was Eric Cantor’s home in era of GOP as the party of biz. Flipped to Dave Brat with populist right, foreshadowing Trump. Turned blue in ‘18 with Spanberger.

Will it tell the story of the 2022 midterms? nbcnews.com/politics/polit…
The last two presidents faced an immediate backlash to their presidencies at this point. Obama had the tea party. Trump had the #resistance. But—for now—there's no equivalent grassroots uprising to Biden's agenda. His party-line $1.9 trillion stimulus didn't seem to ignite one.
Biden's stimulus was nearly three times the size of Obama's but it sparked a fraction of the anger. One reason? The voters who may be out on the streets saw a benefit, unlike '09 when it was comparably hidden.

nbcnews.to/325vRWI

Exhibit A: Image
Spanberger on her district's response to Covid $$ bill: "Generally positive," some "wow" moments, "a little bit of disappointment" about party-line vote. "But we're not getting much feedback in terms of 'I hate that, or you guys shouldn't have done this.'" nbcnews.com/politics/polit…

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More from @sahilkapur

12 Apr
New: Some immigration lawyers and progressives warn that Democrats’ voting-rights bill could unintentionally harm immigrants.

There’s a behind-the-scenes push to get the Senate to tweak HR1’s automatic voter registration language to minimize errors. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
At issue is how automatic voter registration should be structured. Dems and progressives agree AVR is good—but HR1 drafters want a “front end” system that requires an opt out; others favor a “back end” system with a new filter like eligibility docs before triggering registration.
One HR1 fear: US law is strict. If a visa or green card holder checks the wrong box or misunderstands a DMV clerk's question, and gets registered to vote, they can be deported or barred from citizenship. A lawyer calls false affirmation a "kiss of death." nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
Read 6 tweets
24 Mar
New: @Sen_JoeManchin calls for an "enormous" infrastructure package funded in part by new taxes.

He wants to roll back some of the Trump tax cuts.

The WV Democrat tells me the GOP position against new taxes is not "reasonable."

Hello, reconciliation?

nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
Biden’s advisers are crafting a $3 trillion package on infrastructure and other provisions, financed with tax increases, a source familiar with the plan tells NBC (confirming NYT/ @jimtankersley). Details still in flux.

Manchin’s vote will—again—be key.

nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
A key thing to know about Manchin: West Virginia has infrastructure needs and he's not throwing away his shot.

nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
Read 4 tweets
23 Mar
NEW: In the wake of two mass shootings in two weeks, Senate renews efforts to overhaul U.S. gun laws

This will be a slog.

Even the most modest and popular ideas, like universal background checks, face a murky path.

The more ambitious proposals are DOA.

nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
Chuck Schumer promises gun control votes, including on House-passed bills. But the House universal background checks bill lacks the votes: Even Joe Manchin is against it, says it goes too far. What can pass? Some version of Manchin-Toomey. Maybe. If that. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
There is clearly a path to 50 Senate votes on a substantial gun background checks bill. But 60? Not so clear.

Here's @ChrisMurphyCT on what it would mean for the filibuster debate if even that is blocked: nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
Read 4 tweets
22 Mar
Senate Judiciary Chair @DickDurbin says his committee will hold a hearing tomorrow on proposals to reduce gun violence, with subcommittee chair @SenBlumenthal taking the helm.

The House recently passed a couple of bills to bolster background checks and close gaps in the system.
Durbin — again — takes aim at the filibuster, warning that it stands in the way of passing gun control. He says Democrats are "hoping that maybe there's a bipartisan sentiment that can reach 60 votes" on "thoughtful" measures to cut violence. But he doesn't sound optimistic.
Durbin responds to McConnell's defense of the 60-vote rule: "If the Senate can work with a filibuster, show us," he says. "Work with us to pass important legislation."
Read 4 tweets
17 Mar
NEW: @JoeBiden champions a "talking filibuster" that makes it harder for a minority to block legislation.

Support among Democrats is growing: @DickDurbin and @Sen_JoeManchin endorsed the concept in recent days.

This would be a huge change to the Senate.

nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
Joe Biden on why he wants to change the filibuster rule: "It's getting to the point where democracy is having a hard time functioning." nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
I asked @DickDurbin today what turned him against the filibuster. He mentioned Mitch McConnell, losing the Dream Act to the 60-vote rule and protecting civil rights.

"There comes a point where you ask: What is the value of this body?" he said.

nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
Read 4 tweets
15 Mar
Dick Durbin is on the floor torching the modern filibuster, saying it has "become the death grip of democracy."

"Senators can literally phone in a filibuster... Today's filibuster has turned the world's greatest deliberative body into one of the world's most ineffectual bodies."
From there, @SenatorDurbin mentions the DREAM Act, which was filibustered to death in 2010.

A new version of that bill is up for a vote this week in the House, where it's expected to pass. But it faces long odds again in the Senate under the 60-vote rule.
Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin says the filibuster has to go. He says there should at least be a "standing filibuster" that requires senators to talk in order to hold up a bill.

"It's time to change the Senate rules," he says. "Stop holding the Senate hostage."
Read 5 tweets

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