Good explanations—the key to infinite knowledge.
@DavidDeutschOxf formalized the idea. @naval is a fan. Let’s break it down!
In a nutshell, good explanations are:
1. testable
2. hard to vary
3. extendable
4. creative
@DavidDeutschOxf formalized the idea. @naval is a fan. Let’s break it down!
In a nutshell, good explanations are:
1. testable
2. hard to vary
3. extendable
4. creative
Deutsch's model explains why knowledge has compounded since the Enlightenment.
Think about this:
• Knowledge use to double every 500 years
• In 1900, it doubled every 100 years
• Now IBM predicts it doubles every 11-12 hrs 🤯
Why? What changed? Will it keep compounding?
Think about this:
• Knowledge use to double every 500 years
• In 1900, it doubled every 100 years
• Now IBM predicts it doubles every 11-12 hrs 🤯
Why? What changed? Will it keep compounding?
In school, your teachers probably picked testability as the key to the scientific revolution, but that's incomplete.
Consider the Greek explanation for winter.
Once a year, Demeter morns for her daughter Persephone, who must travel to live with her abusive husband, Hades.
Consider the Greek explanation for winter.
Once a year, Demeter morns for her daughter Persephone, who must travel to live with her abusive husband, Hades.
We can design an experiment for this explanation.
If it's true, then winter should happen at the same time everywhere. We can travel across the world, observe the seasons, and see it's false.
So, testability is important, but it's not enough for a good explanation.
If it's true, then winter should happen at the same time everywhere. We can travel across the world, observe the seasons, and see it's false.
So, testability is important, but it's not enough for a good explanation.
Good explanations must be hard to vary b/c they detail specific mechanisms.
Myths are too easy to change. A few story shifts and you have reasons why it's warm in Australia while cold in Greece.
For progress, we need worthy explanations so we don't run and rerun useless tests.
Myths are too easy to change. A few story shifts and you have reasons why it's warm in Australia while cold in Greece.
For progress, we need worthy explanations so we don't run and rerun useless tests.
Take our modern explanation for seasons.
It involves specifics about gravity, our orbit around the sun, the tilt of the earth, and more.
If a detail is shown false, it can't be easily replaced. We'd need to start over.
There's skin in the game.
It involves specifics about gravity, our orbit around the sun, the tilt of the earth, and more.
If a detail is shown false, it can't be easily replaced. We'd need to start over.
There's skin in the game.
Good explanations are also extendable. They have reach.
For example, the Demeter myth tells you nothing about Mars, but our modern theory does.
In fact, we can talk about seasonality on *any* planet relative to its tilt, relationship to stars, etc.
For example, the Demeter myth tells you nothing about Mars, but our modern theory does.
In fact, we can talk about seasonality on *any* planet relative to its tilt, relationship to stars, etc.
Reach is the most useful feature of good explanations.
In essence, it means our knowledge gives us power over the universe.
We can use our explanations to turn the hostile universe into an environment designed for us to thrive.
In essence, it means our knowledge gives us power over the universe.
We can use our explanations to turn the hostile universe into an environment designed for us to thrive.
Perhaps this idea makes you uncomfortable—even angry.
You might think, "The earth sustained us fine until modern knowledge gave us the ability to drain its resources!"
But consider whether this is really true.
You might think, "The earth sustained us fine until modern knowledge gave us the ability to drain its resources!"
But consider whether this is really true.
Think about where you live. Assume for a moment you have no tools and no ability to make tools. After all, tools require knowledge.
Instead, you only have the instincts encoded in your DNA.
Would your environment sustain you?
Almost certainly not.
Instead, you only have the instincts encoded in your DNA.
Would your environment sustain you?
Almost certainly not.
If you live somewhere with a winter season, then you need tech to farm resilient crops and safely store them.
Even hunter-gatherer societies in more friendly environments need weapons and other tools.
We need to create in order to survive—and knowledge gives us that ability.
Even hunter-gatherer societies in more friendly environments need weapons and other tools.
We need to create in order to survive—and knowledge gives us that ability.
The creative feature of good explanations has cosmic implications.
It means we're a force of nature. You cannot understand reality without factoring in people.
We're just as important as gravity and quantum mechanics.
It means we're a force of nature. You cannot understand reality without factoring in people.
We're just as important as gravity and quantum mechanics.
Consider the Three Gorges Dam in China.
It's so massive that it moved 39 trillion kilograms of water above sea level.
The result? The rotation of the earth slowed down by 0.06 microsecond, according to NASA.
It's so massive that it moved 39 trillion kilograms of water above sea level.
The result? The rotation of the earth slowed down by 0.06 microsecond, according to NASA.
Now, pretend we're aliens studying earth.
Could we explain the slower rotation with quantum mechanics? What about gravity? Not alone.
We'd also need to tell a rich cultural history about Sir Issac Newton, modern engineering, and the industrialization of China.
Could we explain the slower rotation with quantum mechanics? What about gravity? Not alone.
We'd also need to tell a rich cultural history about Sir Issac Newton, modern engineering, and the industrialization of China.
Steven Hawkining once said we're "just a chemical scum on the surface of a typical planet that’s in orbit round a typical star on the outskirts of a typical galaxy."
This is absolutely wrong.
In fact, we're one of the most rare and powerful forces in the universe.
This is absolutely wrong.
In fact, we're one of the most rare and powerful forces in the universe.
Consider transmutation—the ability to turn one atom into any other atom.
It only happen two ways:
1. stars
2. people
We can't build a transmutation machine yet, but we know it's theoretically possible—and we know b/c we can create good explanations.
It only happen two ways:
1. stars
2. people
We can't build a transmutation machine yet, but we know it's theoretically possible—and we know b/c we can create good explanations.
Moreover, a transmutation machine would empower us to create any physical system possible within the laws of physics.
It would unlock an infinity of knowledge and resources, which we could utilize to design suitable environments for us throughout the universe.
It would unlock an infinity of knowledge and resources, which we could utilize to design suitable environments for us throughout the universe.
Of course, all this is theoretical—and sounds crazy—but it serves to make a broader point.
Our skill of creating good explanations sets us on an infinite trajectory.
The longer we avoid nukes and large space rocks, the closer we step toward a limitless future.
Our skill of creating good explanations sets us on an infinite trajectory.
The longer we avoid nukes and large space rocks, the closer we step toward a limitless future.
Now, decide for yourself. Is this right?
Don't trust @DavidDeutschOxf. Don't blindly follow @naval.
Nullius in verba
Don't trust @DavidDeutschOxf. Don't blindly follow @naval.
Nullius in verba
If you liked this thread, you might enjoy this one too:
https://twitter.com/james_d_baird/status/1381059204711116800?s=20
Or listen to @DavidDeutschOxf himself:
Or get his book: amazon.com/dp/0143121359/…
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