Thread by @igorvolsky

1/ This story quotes an anonymous "Democratic strategist" who argues "voting on an assault weapons ban would help fuel Republican arguments that the Biden administration is coming to take their guns" 

This 🧵explains why this kind of thinking isn't supported by data or facts

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1381917101695328256

2/ Pundits have long recycled notion that lawmakers who support gun safety are minutes away from losing their seats. Narrative began after Dem loses in 1994 following Clinton's gun reform push

Do me a favor: ignore the pundits & ask the statisticians who actually study this...

3/ "The vote for gun control mattered, but the vote for the tax increase and healthcare were more important," says Gary Jacobson, who has done a statistical analysis of what votes affected the outcome of the 1994 election. More on that here: usnews.com/news/articles/…

4/ It's also worth noting that after Clinton passed the assault weapon ban in 1994....he still ran on it in 1996 (when he was re-elected to a second term) AND both George W. Bush and John Kerry supported the ban in their 2004 race...

5/ We gotta realize that @NRA's influence has ⬇️  significantly in recent years

@NRA endorsements usually go to incumbent Republicans w/ almost 0 chance of losing & where it does give them an advantage, it's minimal (opinions are pretty baked in on this issue)

@NRA 6/ Generally speaking, @NRA has significantly fewer allies in Congress than it did a decade ago.Look at how many fewer A-rated @NRA candidates were in 2008 vs. 2018: nytimes.com/interactive/20…

@NRA 7/ And look at what happened during the 2018 midterms. At least 32 of @NRA’s top-champions in House were defeated, the majority of whom accepted gun lobby contributions and A-ratings. 

In 2020, a bunch of @NRA priority lawmakers also lost their seats: Gardner, McSally, Perdue...

@NRA 8/ A closer look at 2020 only underscores @NRA's weakness.

Biden/Harris ran on one of the most ambitious and comprehensive gun reform agendas in history (i.e. they didn't hide the ball)....

@NRA 9/ In the states that decided the election – AZ, GA, PA, NV, NC, WI – 50% to 58% of voters supported stricter gun laws.

Only 9% to 13% of voters in the same states want to weaken gun laws...

@NRA 10/ At the same time spending on elections from gun violence prevention organizations is only increasing:

@NRA 11/11 So let's stop regurgitating people's mostly unfounded perceptions of @NRA's strength & actually look at the data behind it.

Advancing gun reform is going to galvanize the other side, but if gun safety lawmakers & advocates put up a robust fight, we can & will WIN.