Over the past 7+ years, we've published >1,000 notes, many of them novella length. At one point I counted up the words and it came out to writing War and Peace ... twice.

epsilontheory.com
It's the question I get more than any other from new readers: how do I get into Epsilon Theory?

Or relatedly from more seasoned readers: how do I show other people what Epsilon Theory is all about?
So we're taking the core Epsilon Theory articles out from behind the paywall, organizing them, and making them available for everyone to access in the form they prefer to access them.

We've started with a four-part series from 2018 - Things Fall Apart.

epsilontheory.com/things-fall-ap…
Part 1 - In politics we have what Yeats called a widening gyre, where a steady stream of extremist candidates, each very attractive to their party base, pulls all voters into a greater state of polarization, leaving a center that does not and cannot hold.

epsilontheory.com/things-fall-ap…
Part 2 - In markets we have a black hole, where the massive performance gravity of passively managed U.S. large cap stocks pulls all investors into its clutches over time, subverting both the reality and the faith in portfolio diversification.

epsilontheory.com/things-fall-ap…
Part 3 - How to make our way as investors in a polarized politics and a monolithic market. The deflationary shocks of the modern world are major market risks, but you’ll survive. The Fourth Horseman, however, changes everything about investing.

epsilontheory.com/things-fall-ap…
Part 4 - How to make our way as citizens in a fallen world, with clear eyes and full hearts to make it better. Take back your vote. Take back your distance. Take back your data.

As below, so above.

epsilontheory.com/things-fall-ap…
For each note, we've made PDFs for people who like to read from a printed page.

We've also made audio recordings for people who like to listen, available directly on the website, or as "Epsilon Theory on Tape" through iTunes.

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/eps…

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More from @EpsilonTheory

11 Apr
My god.
Covid deaths in India growing exponentially, too, following case growth w/ ~2 wk lag as it always does.

IFR looks to be higher in this new wave, as is the case with most variants.
Airline passengers from India to the US must show a negative Covid test within 72 hours of travel. Given the explosive spread and unknown pathology of the Indian variant I think this is insufficient. I think all flights originating in India should be barred from entering the US.
Read 4 tweets
1 Apr
They’re not even pretending anymore.

ft.com/content/dc1d1d…
What’s our political reaction to these Hunger Games?

“The wackos on the left propose insane transaction taxes. The wackos on the right tell us how much liBeRtY we are enjoying by giving Ken Griffin all of our money.”

Burn. It. The. Fuck. Down.

epsilontheory.com/hunger-games/
Read 4 tweets
7 Mar
I figure they'll just retitle the deck from last year. A thread of greatest hits ...
Read 8 tweets
11 Feb
More Americans dead than in World War II, and I get more emails and tweets like this than ever.

More than ever.
Also more than ever ...

Wear a mask.
Social distance.
Buy local.
Help your neighbor.
For the love of God, please be an empathetic human being.

epsilontheory.com/once-in-a-life…
This guy, with 19k followers, is a good example of what I'm talking about. This is just from today with @amlivemon. He blocked me a long time ago, so just sends these to his crew so they can go off on me. This has been going on for about 10 months. Now more than ever. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
7 Feb
Depending on your assumptions re: Covid infection cycle (how many days from exposure until you infect someone new) my back of envelope calcs show an effective R-number in Florida between 1.9 and 2.2 for the B117 variant.

That is ... umm ... problematic.
We've written a lot on ET about the challenge posed by the Covid virus variants. Like our original Covid writings a year ago, we've been early and we've been right about the variants, too.

Here's our first note, from January 12.

epsilontheory.com/the-ireland-ev…
Here's the podcast on the Covid variants. Available on iTunes and Spotify, too.

epsilontheory.com/et-podcast-3-t…
Read 5 tweets
30 Jan
We’ve started tracking the narrative structure of r/wallstreetbets.

Over an 8 hour period y’day, we tracked ~30,000 posts. Of those posts, 97% were removed by mods/filters. It’s all bots, all the time.

Once again, you’re being played.
BTW, you're also being played on Twitter. Me, too.

I used to think it was the quality of my tweets that drove my follower count going up or down. LOL. I can track almost to the hour when Twitter turns on or off their promotion algos for my stuff.
This isn't about bots or any individual mode of spoof.

It's about how ALL of social media has been successfully gamed by investment pros, is being successfully gamed by investment pros, and will be successfully gamed by investment pros.

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
Read 5 tweets

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