1. I'm going to open a convo w @RadioFreeTom about this.
Yes, 40% didn't graduate & no owe tons of $ but likely still have bad job prospects & although some didn't grad bc tough circumstance/med issues, as a once prof I can tell you, that's NOT the majority. Most didn't bc
2. they didn't like doing, or prioritize enough, the college part of college & end up failing out.
Now here's the thing- just some context- your college record is permanent so if you fail out somewhere at 19 or 20 you can't "transfer" out that shitty GPA & its very hard to get
3. access to loans/aid again to go back when you're in your late 20s when you have a worth ethic & better understand living in poverty (as I did- though lucky, I didn't START until I was that age). So they're stuck w loans they can't pay AND they can't continue on to finish. BUT
4. the moral hazard point I want to raise w Tom involves responsibility. The college system is literally "dying" to fill seats. I bet almost no one knows this but right now, in every state annually the day the "total # of available freshmen" comes out every college/uni's admin is
5. biting their nails- will there be enough to go around& to fill their freshmen quotas?! Each year less schools do (esp small liberal arts privates) & have to close down. We expect that over the next 20ys hundreds of these schools will close. Publics too. SO, the pressure to
6. recruit is MASSIVE & frankly, that means a lot of kids who are not academically talented OR inclined enough to go to college (at least not at 17/18- I was a TERRIBLE HS student bc I barely bothered to go to class!) get heavily recruited- that's flattering- & so they find
7. in college, often on loans, and maybe they fail out after 1 semester but the system is set up to allow students at least 2 semesters to get their shit together or finish failing out. And the loan companies are aggressive telling students- hey that school that you really like
8. but is WAY more expensive, we can help you go there bc like w mortgage lenders in 2006-2007 they see a cash cow when they see one. Esp the private lenders who get mommy & daddy to sign. Nothing the gov't would do would touch that private lender debt, I'm guessing. Which, BTW,
9. starts accruing interest, fat interest, the day those loans go out while some fed loans wait till graduation But even the fed gov't gets in on the interest accruing pie bc its tasty- 1/2 of fed loans.
Moral hazard: who's to blame, the predatory recruitment (again they NEED
10. those students to keep their college fiscally solvent!), the predatory private loan lenders that sent my own son dozens of applications which I promptly threw away, or the ill-prepared or unsuited kids/people to take these magic loans where the benefits are clear & immediate
11. but the PAIN is hidden & differed? Now, believe it or not I'm not arguing loans should or should not be forgiven. I just want people to understand the full complexity that drives the debt. I do think that if people could wipe their old GPA's (keep any earned credit) & be able
12. to go back to school when they're more matured or more focused- that would be huge. This would involve new policy, not only in the schools but also within FAFSA. I think all the people that got suckered into the "fake" programs like Phoenix abs deserved relief. And then there
13. people who owe as much for undergrad as I owe for UG + a doctorate (or more) & that's bc they went to privates & paid judicious sums for what was in actuality, not a great education. Unless its Harvard, Yale Princeton, etc expensive schools are just expensive. Many are not
14. truly academically tough to get into, even if they have illustrious reputations. And students are sold going there. Yes, they SHOULD make better choices, but if the core value of liberals is to believe people are generally good, the core value of conservatives is to believe
15. in formal theory, rational choice. In other words, to believe that people can make good decisions. Esp flawed in decision systems with too much choice & "nudges" that are designed to push them into poor ones. So yes, millions took APR-adjustable rates for mortgages they were
16. surprised to be offered, but since lenders were confident (pretending to be anyway) they did it. Same w a lot of these shitty loan decisions for college. So its clear to me, a reform w some component of "forgiveness" is proper. Lots of gray away between clean sweeps & good
17. reform, but the politics don't lend themselves to pragmatism, & for this you have the effects of hyperpolarization & exploitation on the Right, which has created an atmosphere where candidates have to campaign on absolutist platforms. Worse on the Right BY FAR, but the left.
18. BTW I should disclose I owe massive student loans- which I needed to pay for my entire education at publics. I also worked full time it was as a fairly decent low paying position. But I was a single mom, no child support for all but 2 of those 11yrs. My balance reflects the
19. the gap between my income & my bills. That's why they call the $15 min wage campaign "a living wage."
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1. I β₯οΈ the findings of this study & I think their approach is cool (nat experiments > anything else) but I worry the entire analysis in built on selection bias bc it doesn't seem like they consider non-prosecution DISCRETION which may distort the entire pool they sample from.
2. By this I mean maybe prosecutors are just good at identifying likely "1 & doners? Better test would be to analyze all the data from someplace that has already stopped all prosecution of "low-level" misdemeanors the compare before & after data to see if 1. reoffenses decrease
3. overall from before & after AND be able to control for really imp factors like race, place/geographic location/income, gender, etc AND eliminate that potential front-end selection bias. In other words we can't be sure from this analysis bc of the "discretion" bias.
I posted this once before & many of you took issue w the topic of the analysis, some w/o reading the article I'd add.
The economists who launched the OG study did so bc data suggested there was a relationship between child gender & divorce. They wanted to test that hypo &
2.found that indeed, divorce rates were higher for families w girls than boys.
The economists that REASSESSED this OG work, to verify it & better understand it, did verify relationship BUT added IMP nuance: effect is refined to 1st kid & soon- the effect disappears as kid ages.
3. And here's where it gets interesting: there's enough men out there who divorce their wives when she fails to produce a male "heir" on the 1st try STILL for there to be a statistically significant "divorce" effect if you have a girl instead of a boy on child 1.
Again, the theory & model I invented & debuted in 2018 was unique bc it argued the two party vote share could be modeled off of PVI, college edu, & diversity.
This is what this model builds off of. And very nicely I might add.
Predicting vote share, not party.
You can recap that modeling and the theory that drove it here, when I first use the same method to forecast Ds winning the WH in 2020... more than a year out of the election. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfβ¦
1. At a time period when democracy everywhere was already pressured, in part by active measures deployed both by conservatives & by Putin-making use of tech, a global pandemic was pretty much a worst-case scenario to heighten tensions which after party/ideo play out on edu lines
2. That's why its not an accident that the recent CIA report, which confirmed RUSSIA, not China (Trump Admin officials directly lied about this in Oct & Nov of 2020) interfered in the 2020 election- working hard to reelect Trump who was dismantling democracy in the U.S. also is
3. also hard at work in the U.S. and elsewhere trying to spread misinfo about the vaccines and the virus. If they can keep the pandemic going, they can thwart economic recovery. They are using us to destroy ourselves & we seem incapable of dealing w it, bc the party that benefits
1. In a 3-tweet thread VA Speaker of the House @EFillerCorn endorses @MarkHerringVA in his reelection bid for VA Atty Gen.
That was an easy 1, but the VA Gov race is going to get CROWDED, likely on both sides. That said, as a former Gov @TerryMcAuliffe is the clear D frontrunner
2. The GOP nomination is already a shit show for VA Reps, who are trying to avoid nominating VA's version of MTG, @AmandaChaseVA. Chase was packing heat on the VA house floor long before MTG ran for Congress, until the Ds took control & imposed sanity. Her nomination would harken
3. back to the 2018 cycle, when GOP voters insisted on nominating a diff known white supremacist- Corey Stewart. Unlike many other Reps, some VA Rs, or at least right-leaning Indies, refused to support Stewart. Was clear in the ballot returns that Kaine received more crossover/
1. Partisanship is a hellava drug. I am continually shocked to hear some members of Congress, the press, just the gen public, who, even after the past 5 yrs, have not really come to terms w how tragically affected we've been by hyperpartisanship. Trump hid to take his vaccine.
2. He'll never do a PSA to tell his own voters who are only rejecting science & who are only dying this way bc Trump & his fellow GOP Govs like Desantis, Abbott, Kemp, & others LED them into endangering their health- & in many cases, dying. This is the cold hard truth that Abbott
3. Trump, et al. will one day hopfully be forced to face- in this world or the next. They intentionally led people to their deaths. And those people that they led? Those people exposed other people and led THEM to their deaths. Doctors. Nurses. Grocery store employees. People who