Tommy Lasorda once said managers are juggling eight or ten considerations when they debate a pitching change. Smart fans will be aware of about three, and they'll actually usually get the cost-benefit analysis of those three right. Where they fail is missing the others.
https://twitter.com/BrendanNyhan/status/1382331726609969153
Which is not to say experts are always right, or that MLB managers never make bonehead calls based on weird whims. But I found the quote really useful and try to remember it.
An interesting side note: If you're an armchair critic, you're screwing up if you're not properly assessing all eight factors. But if you're an activist trying to influence policy, that's not actually your job—your job is to become the ninth factor.
Knowing what the other eight are and how they're operating can be useful in figuring out how to be effective, but they're means, not ends. You're not a pundit or an adviser. You're pushing for your own interests. That's your job.
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