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Sam Trabucco Profile picture
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14 Apr, 4 tweets, 2 min read
So far, auction indications have been a bit lower than I think the market was expecting (e.g. where it was trading on FTX earlier).

On FTX, it's fallen to close to that indic price:
The crypto market is reacting broadly basically how I thought -- the world is all watching this, the world all expects BTC to be correlated to COIN right now (since Coinbase's success is seen as something of a proxy for success of BTC in the US), so crypto is crashing.
And the worst performers of all? The likes of BNB and other exchange tokens, who are seen as *especially* correlated with COIN and Coinbase more generally. When the indics first started crashing, BNB *really* underperformed -- it's recovered some but not totally vs. BTC.
We'll see what happens when this thing finally lists! I'm expecting more of the same -- if the market thinks COIN is doing well, crypto / EXCH will follow, and vice-versa.

I'd forgotten how painfully slow traditional market listings are, crypto has me spoiled.

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More from @AlamedaTrabucco

Sam Trabucco Profile picture
14 Apr
Heading into Coinbase's hotly anticipated listing, markets have been volatile, and there's been a lot of great trading to do if you know where to look.

Honestly, the trading has seemed almost ... *too* great? And pretty easy to predict.

A thread about efficiency.
Let me first discuss this notion more generally -- efficiency. A market is called *efficient* if prices in the market consistently reflect some true fair value, based on all possible data at the time -- trade history, blockchain data, news, etc.

How efficient are crypto markets?
This shouldn't be a *giant* surprise, but the answer is: not really :P

A priori this might not be totally clear, but we've seen time and again the markets just not move in the obvious direction for what seems like an eternity:
Read 25 tweets
Sam Trabucco Profile picture
12 Mar
March 12, 2020 was the hardest* day** of my life. A year later, it sticks out more clearly as the most interesting situation I've ever been faced with -- and one from which I've learned a ton. Here are a few lessons I learned directly from March 12:
*tied with the time in 9th grade when I was forced to play on a baseball team and managed to strike out vs. a pitcher who walked everyone else and would have walked me 4-0 if I had not swung once

**really the 3ish days around then, but it felt like a month so IDK
ADAPT

Pre-COVID, crypto was its own thing. Mostly divorced from the traditional markets, BTC (for instance) really did not have a beta to SPY, for instance -- it was totally its own thing.
Read 32 tweets
Sam Trabucco Profile picture
20 Jan
The most popular narrative surrounding the crypto rally for the past few months has been clear and consistent: U.S. institutional buying is fueling everything. And I agree that this narrative has basically been right!

But ... I also think there's nuance here which can be lost.
It's easy to make the leap from "U.S. institutions fueling the rally" to "U.S. is buying crypto and fueling the rally." And THEN it's easy to make the leap to "when crypto sells off, Asia is selling." I see people make these leaps all the time!
And sometimes I think claims like this are at least defensible. Like, sure, part of the narrative is that Grayscale has a lot of creations, probably that means U.S. "is buying" to some extent. And when BTC does (sometimes) go up during U.S. hours and down later, sure.
Read 14 tweets
Sam Trabucco Profile picture
14 Jan
Ah, election trading. I think trading the election in November was some of the most fun I've ever had in my life ... for the first day. Maaaybe the second.

Kinda wasn't expecting it to last 3 months.

But, always a silver lining: people were bidding TRUMPFEB high. WAY higher than we ever thought was reasonable -- we couldn't find a single informed source who honestly believed the probability of Trump remaining in office was higher than 1% or so. And LOOK at this chart!
We quickly decided we believed our fair way more than the market and that there were no real selection effects here -- it all became a question of maximizing the amount of $ we could make from selling into the bids.
Read 11 tweets
Sam Trabucco Profile picture
14 Jan
As I've been saying a lot lately on Twitter, Alameda is quite comfortable with the Tether team, and we do a lot of large creations! I talked about that in more length in this thread:
What does "large" mean, though? Well, it depends! And it doesn't just depends on any absolute metrics, or on market conditions, or whatever -- it also depends on our own ability to think through the question of "how much should we create" and "how much is like, too much, c'mon."
Soon after we got set up to do creations, we did some initial studies to determine how much we could sell above $1 + X + Y + Z, where X was creation cost, Y was "execution cost," and Z was "cost of tying up capital." We also charge for our time and add some edge somewhere.
Read 13 tweets
Sam Trabucco Profile picture
14 Jan
BTC took forever to break through $20k -- I talked about the day when it finally happened here:
Right after it broke through, I noted in the thread that our big intuition was that it would RIP up even more. And then rip, and rip, and rip -- which it did! We were confident because of what we knew about liquidation behavior near recent optima ...
... and this was a GLOBAL optimum, so we knew there'd likely be tons of liquidations once it broke through $20k. So, once that happened? We literally got as long as we could, given the liquidity, and without fucking up our execution too badly.
Read 9 tweets

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