Thread by @KofmanMichael

Updated thoughts on the situation around Ukraine. Russian troop deployments continue. The situation looks set to endure through April into May. Russian rationales (plural) offered remain unconvincing. I would look closely at mil posture and statements over next two weeks. 1/

Russian forces are deploying in staging areas, not moving to forward assembly points, or dispersing. This may change. The distance between Voronezh and Ukraine for example offers some time for indications and warnings, and modest opportunity to detect change in posture. 2/

There are indeed field hospitals, signals units, electronic warfare, air defense, MTO combat service support units involved. Mostly seeing elements of 4 armies, 3-4 VDV units, and supporting assets that belong to higher echelon commands in MDs. 3/

Shoigu implied this deployment may end in two weeks, involving two armies and VDV units. Elements of the two armies moved are from 58th and 41st CAA, but they have also activated the 8th and 20th along with high-power artillery brigades, air defense, landing craft, etc. 4/

My view of the situation has not changed. It appears a coercive demonstration, but the chance that it is not remains significant. It is too early, and overly optimistic, to assume the situation will de-escalate.