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Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
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15 Apr, 4 tweets, 2 min read
an excellent response to partisan and almost entirely unfounded criticism of Ontario vaccination program by prominent commenters @DFisman of U of Toronto, @NathanStall and Toronto Star. They whinge about "freezers" and supposedly chaotic vaccine distribution, fomenting hate.
2/ turns out that the slow-moving inventory, about which Fisman, Stall and TorStar whinge, is AstraZeneca, about which segments of medical community itself, in particular, regulators, have fomented doubt.
3/ turns out we have no Pfizer inventory other than that required to convert one weekly delivery into daily clinics. And that Moderna shipments erratic. We recently ran out.
4/ I'm sure that @DFisman and @NathanStall and Toronto Star don't regard their acrimonious accusations of vaccines sitting in freezers and incompetent delay as hate speech, but that's been the effect unfortunately.

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Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
3 Apr
Toronto has MLB team. In Canada, there are no mail-in ballots or ballot harvesting. Nearly all votes on one day, in person with ID. Votes are counted in front of scrutineers from each(all) parties. Does new MLB policy prevent Toronto from hosting future all-star game?
if Canada is required to allow US-style ballot harvesting and non-ID mail-in ballots in order to host a future all-star game, then count me out.
to be more precise, Canada does permit residents to apply for absentee ballots and submit such ballots by mail under restricted circumstances. Percentage is small. We do not have mass mailings of ballots to voter list or abuse of absentee ballots.
Read 18 tweets
Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
29 Mar
@realexmaple @FOOL_NELSON @shipwreckedcrew @wakeywakey16 @Guccifer2Henry re-reading the EC, I agree that base case should be that this paragraph relies on earlier Australian reporting, not on Pass The Telephone at Legat or Dibble stage.
@realexmaple @FOOL_NELSON @shipwreckedcrew @wakeywakey16 @Guccifer2Henry So it's probably not a 4-stage Pass The Telephone problem. However, Papadopoulos' ravings and whispering are easy enough to misunderstand under the best of circumstances, let alone when he was getting drunk with Erika. ( Base case is May 6 with Erika, not May 10 with Downer)
@realexmaple @FOOL_NELSON @shipwreckedcrew @wakeywakey16 @Guccifer2Henry Consider the problems that arise with FBI 302s under relatively controlled circumstances. Erika wasn't taking notes; there was no transcript or recording. What are the chances that Erika mischaracterized Papadopoulos' nonsense in earliest report? Pretty high.
Read 5 tweets
Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
29 Mar
@FOOL_NELSON @shipwreckedcrew re Downer's evidence. The FBI EC opening Crossfire refers to Downer saying that Papadopoulos mentioned a "Russian offer to assist". In his public interviews, Downer has never mentioned or referred to this supposed "Russian offer". He evaded comment when asked directly on twitter
@FOOL_NELSON @shipwreckedcrew 2/ I think that there's a real and serious possibility that the language "Russian offer to assist" was an embellishment added somewhere in transmission from Erika to Downer to Dibble to Legat Boetig to FBI headquarters. Pass The Telephone.
@FOOL_NELSON @shipwreckedcrew 3/ all we've seen is the 4th or 5th hand EC.

Strzok and Pientka interviewed Downer and Thompson on Aug 2, but their 302/memorandum on interview remains concealed. Strzok spoke publicly on this interview last fall, but unfortunately his most explosive statement about interview
Read 4 tweets
Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
14 Mar
@Wilkmaster @15poundstogo actually, I don't think that it was Jake Sullivan who was hacked anyway. It was someone who was copied on the email between Jake and Huma.
@Wilkmaster @15poundstogo What caught my eye about this was that it doesn't seem to have been released during the campaign. One would have thought that showing an email hack involving Huma Abedin in Sep 2016 would have been a notable scalp for DCLeaks and worth announcing.
@Wilkmaster @15poundstogo my puzzle arises precisely because this wasn't published. It seems to have been in a password-protected section of DCLeaks, (partial) contents of which were vacuumed up by Wayback.
Read 4 tweets
Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
11 Mar
Alarming that Biden administration has apparently authorized a proxy war in Ukraine where Biden as VP previously led US regime change coup in February 2014. After 4 years of somewhat hostile peace, Ukraine, now a US/NATO proxy, declared war on "its own people" (Donbass).
Ukraine has two main languages- Ukrainian in west, Russian in east (Donbass). After US-backed regime change coup in 2014, first act of US-installed govt was to limit, even forbid, use of Russian language by govt and public institutions. If something similar happened in Canada,
2/ Quebec would separate in 2 weeks. (As Crimea did.) There have been two Quebec separation referenda in my adult life, each of which was very narrowly defeated. So the principle that separation is legal under international law seems well established to me.
Read 4 tweets
Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
28 Feb
we've all heard a lot about super-transmissibility of UK variant. Estimates were based on Volz, Neil Ferguson et al 2021. Here is right panel of their Figure 3 showing "additive advantage" of variant of >60% (horizontal line). medrxiv.org/content/10.110….
2/ Volz, Ferguson et al used data from epidemic weeks 46-49. Generating code for this figure and out of sample data (weeks 50-56) is available for at github.com/mrc-ide/sarsco…. Out of sample, super transmissibility vanishes as variant became dominant.
@BogochIsaac @NathanStall
3/ the UK wave associated with the variant was real enough, but out of sample data counter-indicates the super-transmissibility hypothesis.
Read 13 tweets

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