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Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
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16 Apr, 5 tweets, 2 min read
1/x Just as Gary’s 🦍positioning reflexively effects the outcome of his bets, I’ve become convinced that my calls are reflexively beginning to effect the outcomes of my predictions... so, I’m gonna keep it🤫tonight. There are simply too many Care Bears crowding my magical 🌈.
2/x Given the trajectory, NDX leadership, strong seasonality, all the late quant flows tied to declining Vol which still have a ways to go, Gary’s dramatic oversupply & the zookeepers still steady supply of🍌’s despite the overwhelming size of the rally relative to IVols,there’s
3/x every reason to believe that all these factors paired w/the fact that now savvy 🥐’s are joining simple minded 🌷’s as 🐻’s, that whatever likely correction we get here, will probably end up only amounting to another choppy short-lived correction in time, Supported over the
4/x course of the next 2 weeks by the 20 day. Regardless, the time has come for⚠️& the tail w/a break below the 20 day is not only real, but after a 1 year rally of over 90%, has the potential to be devastating... we will know the truth soon enough. We will not be dogmatic. Price
5/5 is truth. Long OTM calls/short stock post 5/7 scalping short @ our levels & letting our shorts run, is the game until 4/28. Our usual cheap convexity in IWM & ARKK doomsday machine names, & vix calls are locked & loaded. LFG... GL!🍀

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More from @jam_croissant

Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
14 Apr
1/x per usual, Wed’s update’ll be brief...Vanna’s👸gone. But Gary’s🦍@ the top of his game. & although our🦥is no👸, he’s charming enough when Gary’s well FED, & so, as predicted, here we are @ our projected 4140@ our long projected🪟, & WofFortune is crushing the ratings... But
2/x remember it’s never an easy ride. we’re likely to get some more mowing of the🌷’s & signs of accelerated forced call squeezes across the space before it’s all said & done... If this call squeeze isn’t able to drop kick the🍌🍌 out of Gary’s grasp in the next 1.5 weeks, it’ll
3/x be hard to loosen the grip & turn the tide. Regardless, @ this juncture, gamma is simply too cheap in this🪟& as stated, now that we have hit our objective, it’s time to START accumulating on the upside, gradually replacing stock w/calls or building a delta neutral, short
Read 7 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
12 Apr
1/x Here we are @ 4/12. The rally to ATH has transpired as predicted & the VIX has tumbled to 13 month lows. The🪟of weakness has opened & this is where things start to get weird...it’s NEVER straightforward, & imagining how this market will manage to tumble through the🪟begins
2/x to become fairly hard to pinpoint. The truth is, that despite Vanna’s👸part time sched this week & charm’s🦥fading strength as the week goes on, Gary’s still very much in control until the🍌’s get taken away. Any rally to our 4140 *** objective should begin the process
3/x of loosening his grip...& any rally above 4140 toward a 420 spy before 4/20 should only serve to create greater potential energy for a correction in the month to come. Skew in the indices has been shockingly soft given how low IVol has become, NTM particularly in the front of
Read 13 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
9 Apr
1/x As we approach our long awaited🪟. It’s important to remember it’s NEVER an Easy Ride...Everything from the last 2 posts this week👇still applies, BUT...The strength of the NDX, the hugging & stretching of the 2 stdev of the 20 day, in the face of 46k lbs of JuneQ 4115 🍌’s
2/x from last week, the overextended retail sentiment & RSI’s, tells us the rally is hungry for more. We still expect the market to squeeze to ~3140 by Mon 4/12. @ 3140 is where things get interesting. w/the🪟open, this is where the market will begin to play🐔to shake the fragile
3/x paper hands & squeeze the last remaining 🌷‘s... So many are looking for this 3140 area to be a potential🔝, that my SPY-dey sense tells me we’ll potentially get a unimaginable stretch to a well deserved 420 SPY sometime before 4/20. My current est sees a potential 🎯
Read 9 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
7 Apr
1/x Everything from Monday’s 🥐 Crumbs👇still applies, So I’ll keep this short & jammy...The speed of the rally has been telling. Despite bullish sentiment, a rally beyond the 2stdev up of the 20 day, continued bear steepening, NDX beta adjusted weakness, 🚨RSI’s, this market has
2/x barely flinched... that tells me this market has more work to do on the upside still. This correction in time tells me that the rally was just a little ahead of schedule, but it seems unlikely that the market is going to let all of those late to the party enough time to catch
3/x up to the tour bus. ***4140 sits overhead & Vanna👸& charm 🦥 are slated to host an epic late Friday/Early Monday special edition of the Wheel of Fortune. Gary has gorged himself on🍌& is unlikely to be hungry until at least next week. Sky high ratings could distract
Read 6 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
5 Apr
1/x As is usually the case with most long weekends, but especially so w/The Easter Bunny, IVol got the living daylights beat out of it... it didn’t help that Gary was already well FED coming into EOQ & got a dump trunk full of 🍌’s from the Zookeepers @ JPMorgan in the form of
2/x the 46k SPX JuneQ 4115 Calls mentioned last week... Dealers are stuck & Gary’s as fat as I’ve seen him in over a year. So it is, despite a 72 hr 80 PT SPX rally, no surprise that we are stuck here at 2 stdev up on the 20 day, playing 🐔w/ our long 🎯4024*** w/ a 1 week SPX
3/x straddle trading only $48. 4042.25 *** sits closely overhead as well. & despite every flow reason to hope for more upside & every macro reason to hope for mean reversion, w/👸Vanna & 🦥Charm well rested, this market sits between a 🪨 & an immovable force until 4/12.But don’t
Read 12 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
1 Apr
1/x it’s synthetic Friday... I’ll keep it short and sweet. Everything from Tuesday still applies👇. Vanna’s 👸back, & Gary 🦍is as well FED as ever. There was a massive quarterly rolled trade, JuneQ 3175-3760 ps vs 4115 C 45,600x that traded in SPX today that only reinforced this
2/x despite all the drama & headlines, stay the course, & expect more digestion w/an upward bias. To be clear, normally, given +seasonality, the reopening & the technical strength of the last week, we’d normally expect much higher prices, but 1)momentum has been waning 2) the 🐻
3/x steepening of the yield curve continues to scream, now having reached the > the 2/10 spread has seen since 6/2015 3) the DXY is 🆙 1.2% in a week 4) There has been little to no retail call buying response to the new stimmy tendies due to the reopening (as predicted)...but now
Read 6 tweets

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