Thread by @KamranBokhari

When I was learning intelligence analysis many moons ago I was taught that before you get excited thinking that you have obtained a new piece of information stop for a moment and ask yourself: Why are you being told what you are?

https://twitter.com/business/status/1382994183510708224

Why is the source telling you something? What is its interest in relaying this piece of intelligence? IOW, the reason for releasing a piece of information is far more critical than the actual intel itself.

Applying this principle to the announcement from Iran that has succeeded in enriching uranium to 60 percent purity we must consider why is Tehran telegraphing it to the world like this? Normally, developments like these are the most highly guarded state secrets.

Such behavior is all the more bizarre if you factor in how Iran’s nuclear sector is the target of sophisticated intelligence ops. Not to mention that no country that acquired nuclear weapons capability did so by telegraphing it to the world.

This is not to say that Iran is not seeking nuclear weapons. It is but there is something that it wants far more badly than nukes. And that is respite from sanctions and much more immediately.

The most important imperative for the Iranian regime is to get back to the nuclear deal in some shape or form. Tehran cannot continue an ambitious foreign policy and maintain political economic stability at home without it.

This announcement is part of the Iranian strategy to shape US and western perceptions that they need to hurry up and negotiate version 2.0 of the 2015 nuclear deal or they are headed to a point of no return.

If they were really getting close to the nuclear finish line they would do everything in their power to make sure that no one found out. But that is their longer-term objective. Not something they need at this moment.

For now the clerical regime is weaponizing its pursuit of nuclear technology to obtain the badly needed reprieve from a dire financial situation - all the while maintaining the ability to pursue nukes at a future date.

In addition to the strategic objective of trying to get back to the JCPOA there are other tactical benefits to saying....oh look, we are only 30 percentage points away from weapons-grade U-235.

First, it serves as a response to the increasingly frequent attacks on its nuclear sector. Tehran gets to say that they are not having any effect on its program.

Second, such telegraphing helps maintain credibility at home and among allies that the regime is able to absorb shocks to its system.

Third, it serves what is perhaps the most important tactical goal is that it is a way to try and steer the conversation away from the real threat that the regime poses; its efforts to alter the regional security architecture.

The Iranians know that Biden is under pressure to needs go beyond the Obama nuclear deal and force Tehran’s hand on its regional power projection agenda. By appearing to be upping the ante on the nuclear issue Tehran hopes to keep the negotiations limited to nukes.

Perception-shaping is of course fraught with risks especially when it involves flirting with escalatory actions. There is always the possibility that you invite air strikes, especially when leverage becomes more zero-sum in nature.

Was recently discussing this issue with my friend @faysalitani who made a brilliant point that the Biden admin's move towards JCPOA 2.0 is based on the fact that the U.S. does not want a conflict with Iran. The Iranians know this and are trying to exploit it to their advantage.