Militarily, the Turks are playing an interesting game. Their goal is to show that the Russian level of engagement works against rebels but not them. In this way, Ankara is forcing Moscow to either get more deeply involved in Syria or come to the negotiating table.
For the Kremlin, Syria has been a relatively low cost intervention. Not too many troops. Limited deployment of fixed wing aircraft. Focus on air support to Assad regime forces and Iranian-mobilized irregulars. The Russians do not want to increase their footprint in country.
Moscow has been able to sustain this level of commitment because the Turkish intervention was limited and encumbered by a number of factors: 1) US alignment with Kurds; 2) Turkish inertia; 3) Rebel rout; 4) Astana process.
The Syrian regime’s offensive to retake Idlib has upset this arrangement that has been beneficial to the Russians. The Turks could not sit by and watch the fal of Idlib to Damascus. More importantly, the resulting refugee crisis forced the Turkish hand.
As a result, the Turks were forced to escalate in Idlib bring them into direct confrontation with not just Syrian regime forces but also the Russians. This has upset the modi’s vivendi b/w Ankara and Moscow.
This is what is called the overtaking of subjective preferences of the actors involved by objective geopolitical realities that emerge as a result of a sharpening divergence in interests.
So, the Russians are now in a dilemma. They have unintentionally forced the Turks into a position where Ankara had to escalate. This is now brought them to a point where either they have to escalate to push the Turks back or accept them as a bigger player in Syria than before.
There serious limits to how deep the Russians want to get involved in Syria. The Levant is a bridge too far and there are serious problems that the Russians face more closer to him in what they call their near abroad.
The Russians care FAR more about Ukraine than they can ever give a shit about Syria. In fact, getting involved into Syria was a way for the Kremlin to try & gain leverage with DC vis-a-vis its near abroad and the sanctions regime.
Conversely, the Turks were not ready - at least not just yet - to invest so much into Syria just yet. The killing of some 3 dozen of their soldiers forced their hand as well.
The Turkish calculus is that the Russians are reaching a point of decreasing marginal utility with their involvement in Syria. Getting more involved is not going to lead to more gains for the Kremlin.
Unless the Russians counter-escalate the Turks will be emboldened. The deaths of 33 troops could prove strategically beneficial for Ankara.
Iran is watching this evolving Russian-Turkish development with great trepidation. Tehran has been relying on Moscow to keep Ankara at bay. But all of that is now rapidly changing
The last thing that the Iranians want to see is Russian commitment to supporting the Syrian regime decrease or even peak. What the means Tehran will have to up its game and under the sanctions regime this is going to be hard.
The division of labor between Russia & Iran has been a functio of air power and ground forces, respectively. If Turkey is going to counter Russian air superiority in NW Syria then there is no way that Iran can rely on its irregulars to sustain the Syrian regime offensives.
The ultimate game changer would be if the US and Turkey reached an understanding on the Syrian Kurds as was the case with the Kurds in Iraq. Because this is the only lever that the Russians have against the Turks.
The reality, however, is that Turkey is not ready to confront Russia in a major way in Syria at this time. Ankara seeks to emerge as a net beneficiary in Idlib. The Turks are therefore pushing ahead in the battlespace while messaging the Russians through the backchannels.
