Thread by @M_Sumption

NEW: important new report out from @ONS today with first glimpse of the new era of migration stats and it’s pretty interesting.
THREAD
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

The main report gives revised figures for 9 years to March 2020 using admin data instead of surveys. Total net migration averages 15% higher (43,000/year) in the new data – so not a massive difference given that confidence intervals were around +/- 30-40k anyway

But EU migration makes up larger share of the total in the new figures. With new method, ONS estimates net EU migration averaged 216,000 from during 9-year period ending March 2020. That's 93,000 or 76% higher than previous figures (which had themselves already been revised up.

New method produces *lower* figures for non-EU net migration. Non-EU net migration during the same period 54,000 or 31% lower in the new figures compared the old, survey-based estimates

Over the 9-year period, EU countries made up 64% of non-UK net migration in new data, up from 42% in the old ones. Pre-referendum, EU was 70-80% of non-UK net migration. Remember the political narrative at the time, that “actually, most net migration is from non-EU”? It wasn't.

In YE March 2012, when many of the coalition-era restrictions on non-EU migration were underway, the old survey based estimates suggested that only 29% of net migration of foreign citizens was from the EU. That was later revised up to 37%. New stats now suggest it was 68%

This is just part of process of rewriting the story of migration in the UK over the past decade, and it’s not over yet. ONS is still working on the figures and will make further adjustments. When Census data are ready, this will give more clarity too.

But it’s great to have this first cut of the new @ONS migration stats that will allow us to bid a not-very-tearful farewell to an era of immigration/emigration stats dominated by the international passenger survey. More info on the overall ONS plan here: ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…