Sorry to tell David Einhorn this, but absurd valuations for silly penny stock companies have been around for years.

To wit, the $100 million Grilled Cheese Food Truck circa 2015. @mattmiller1973 @tomkeene @lisaabramowicz1

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
If you took that as your sell signal, you left some money on the table: Markets have more than doubled since then.

ritholtz.com/2015/02/would-…
The key point here: There are always examples of silly valuations, especially among penny stocks, a hotbed of fraud, self-dealing, manipulation and nonsense.

My 2015 grilled cheese truck lesson? Be wary of drawing broad market conclusions from illiquid microcap scamcos
The company above - $GRLD -- seemed to have stoped trading in 2019
Another lesson: Markets are not perfectly + instantly efficient, but they are kinda sorta eventually efficient.

ritholtz.com/2004/11/the-ki…
These stocks went public through shell companies + reverse mergers. They were the province of boiler room sales pitches, heavily promoted stocks or pump & dump schemes.

When US stock exchanges tightened listing rules, most of these junkcos were banished to the pink sheets.
Incentives (Arbitrage, paired trades) help keep stock prices in line relatively to indices + comparable stocks. But who wants to police microcap stocks whose prices are out of whack?

No one.

They are too small + easily manipulated for institutions to get involved with
When the short squeeze began on Gamestop $GME it had a $3 billion market cap.

Does anyone really want to short a tiny $100m company?

How many Reddit/WallStreetBets posts would it take to make that rally 10X?
I bet there are dozens of tiny companies trading on the pink sheets right now that are at absurd valuations.

No one has the incentives to go find them to short/arbitrage them back to reality.

Hence, lots of examples of really dumb stocks trading at really absurd valuations

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More from @ritholtz

7 Apr
Friend with Covid became a long hauler, suffered with shortness of breath, uneven heartbeat, lost sense of smell since last March.

Just got vaccinated + it helped substantially: long-haul symptoms improved: Energy returned, aches vanished, even sense of smell returned.
It was the Pfizer vaccine:

"PFE shot. I'm still feeling great a week into this recovery. Truly miraculous."
This is the latest I found on it . . .

cnn.com/2021/04/03/hea…
Read 5 tweets
29 Mar
Last week saw the one year anniversary of the 2020 Covid Crash lows, accompanied by a lot of bad and misleading commentary.

A quick thread with observations & criticisms as to how so many missed the mark.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

1/
12 months after March 23, 2020 lows the S&P 500 Index gained 75%.

Why is the time it takes the earth to complete one orbit around the sun relevant to stocks?

Add a month to 12 month time period, and the gains crash to ~15%.

75% vs 15%!! What a difference one month makes!

2/
Also worth noting: When the price of an asset falls 34%, it requires about a ~52% move higher to get back to breakeven.

Said differently, 2/3rds of that rally was simply getting back to where the markets where before the crash.

3/
Read 14 tweets
13 Mar
101 Million+ vaccinations!

Americans have received 101 million doses of vaccines, an average of 2.30 million doses per day were administered.

101 Million vaccinations! ting us that much closer to herd immunity! 1

bloomberg.com/graphics/covid…
The lockdown that started March 2020 with anyone who wants a vaccine targeted by May 2021 gives us a target date in June.

That means we are at the 75% point today.

ritholtz.com/2021/03/light-…
In November we were at the halfway point. June was a hopeful optimistic date. But it is looking more realistic than ever.

You can just imagine what full, safe, healthy re-opening is going to look like

ritholtz.com/2020/11/halfwa…
Read 10 tweets
12 Mar
If you had a spare $69 million laying around to spend on Art, would it be in this direction? Or would it be in a more physical, less digital format?

onlineonly.christies.com/s/beeple-first…
That $100k Banksy that was burnt/converted into a NFT sold for 4X its purchase price

news.bitcoin.com/burned-banksy-…
Here's a good explanation of why (and what) this sale was about:

slate.com/technology/202…
Read 4 tweets
10 Mar
Inflationary Risk Factors:

Mild inflation 2-3%
Transitory inflation (3-4%) lasting 2-6 quarters
Robust inflation 4-6%
Deflation (real) -1%
Dis-inflation 0-1%
Stagflation +6-8% + rapidly rising unemployment
Hyperinflation +10-20%

Those are my definitions of various 'Flations

1/
Inflation is in the news again, but not for the reasons you might believe.

It has little to do with nominal real inflation, less to do with actual real inflation, and nothing to with rates.

I suspect it I partly a political stunt. More on this below.
2/
I have been criticizing how BLS, Fed + Wall Street measure inflation for a long time.

The predictions about it have been consistently bad, often terrible.

ritholtz.com/inflation/

3/
Read 17 tweets
3 Mar
"If you were prescient enough to buy a 1954 300SL new for $7k MSRP + locked it away, it would fetch ~$1.4 million today. Annualized return of 8% before inflation, storage + maintenance.

Most funds performed better + required zero oil filters."

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
To say nothing of the inherent Survivorship Bias in looking at the cars that did appreciate: Selecting investments after the fact is easy; ask yourself this question: What car do you want to buy as an investment for the next 60 years to be sold in 2081?

ritholtz.com/2018/08/surviv…
This is why I have always been a big believer in buying what you like, and driving it (like you stole it).

ritholtz.com/2020/11/my-gar…
Read 7 tweets

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