$PINS Something I shared with CML Pro yesterday.

A thread

/1
$PINS

First, if there is a short report showing poor "channel checks," so be it.

Now onward to years rather than quarters...

/2
$PINS

Bearish Thesis: Pinterest will miss out on the younger generation which is the money honey pot:

Information:
The number of Gen Z users grew by 40% in 2020. In terms of generational demographics, Pinterest saw the most growth last year with Gen Z.

via @pinterestbiz

/3
$PINS

Bearish Thesis: You can’t monetize an app that has little engagement and cannot track customer buying behavior.

The 2020 Q4 letter to shareholders gives us an update.

....

/4
$PINS

New Information: “Shopping ad revenue once again grew faster than our overall business and we saw a 6x increase in the number of businesses that used the shopping ads format in Q4.”

....

/5
$PINS

....

Between January and August 2020, there was a 300% increase in add-to-cart and checkout attributed conversions. 

/6
$PINS

Prior Bearish Thesis: Pinterest has no videos and video is the future of all things content.

New Information: People watch close to one billion videos a day on Pinterest. In fact the company’s exact words are:

....

/7
$PINS

...

“One thing you may not realize: Pinterest is already a video platform. Video is absolutely exploding on Pinterest.”

/8
$PINS

Prior Bearish Thesis: Pinterest is only for women.

From another Pinterest Business post we get:

....

/9
$PINS

...

New Information: At 60% women, the gender divide on Pinterest may be narrowing. The company’s global Head of Business Marketing identifies men as one of the platform’s fastest-growing demographics.

/10
$PINS

Prior Bearish Thesis: There is no room for Pinterest. Facebook, Instagram, and Google control the ad world.

New Information: 92% of Pinterest advertisers rank the platform first for reputation via @pinterestbiz

/11
$PINS

And finally, since we're taking about stock...

Last quarter:

Pinterest delivered 76% revenue growth with adjusted EBITDA of 42%.

That is, 76 + 42 = 118.

(The rule of 40 is a high water mark for software. This is the rule of 100.)

.../12
$PINS

Q4 Revenue: $706 million versus analyst expectations of $642.95 million.

Q4 Adjusted EPS: $0.43 versus analyst expectations of $0.32.

But, it's the future that matters, not the past, so...

/13
$PINS

On 2-4-2021 the company also reported guidance for the same quarter.

Revenue Guidance: The company guided to low 70 per cent growth, which would mean at least $460 million versus analyst expectations of $430.75 million.

....

/14
$PINS

So, eh, channel checks 🤷‍♂️

I see the fastest growing company with over $1.5B in sales w EBITDA margin >40%, and guidance to 70%.

Maybe the company falls flat for Q1.

I'm in it for the money, and the money isn't in shorting this name for the long term.

/15 fin
$PINS Oh yeah. This was from CML Pro which you can learn about here:

bit.ly/CMLPro

And see 5 year auditor verified results here:

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More from @OphirGottlieb

17 Mar
$PD

* Revenue: $59MM vs $57.48M estimates

Full Year Guidance
* Revenue: $ 267M vs $262.61M
2/n

$PD

* Revenue: $59MM vs $57.48M estimates
* EPS: -$0.07 vs -$0.11

Full Year Guidance
* Revenue: $ 267M vs $262.61M
* EPS: -$0.395 vs -$0.22
3/n

$PD

Fourth quarter total Dollar-Based Net Retention accelerated sequentially to 121%
Read 6 tweets
9 Mar
CML members, we are soon to get community out to everyone, for now I'll share my thoughts from there, here.
Two narratives exist:

1. Getting over COVID, job growth, consumer spending, GDP growth will cause permanent inflation due to the collision with accomodative fiscal and monetary policy.

Higher inflation means higher rates which impact long term valuations due to discount rates.
2. Resulting inflation is temporary, just as COVID's recession was temporary; getting out is the start to another economic boom and a bull market.

Today, narrative 2 is winning.

In the long term, narrative 2 always wins. 

It just doesn't happen as fast as we want it to.
Read 4 tweets
5 Mar
1/n

$LFMD LifeMD Q1 2021 Revenues on Track to Exceed $17 Million, up 295%, with Subscriptions Representing More than 80% of Total Revenue cmlviz.com/article.php?ar…
2/n

$LFMD

Subscriptions are expected to generate more than 80% of revenue in the quarter, compared to about 63% in the same year-ago period.
3/n

$LFMD

Given that 80% of revenue is recurring/subscription, this feels more like a technology company than anything else.

295% growth now on a $68M run rate, this company should do $100M in revenue in 2021.

I am long calls, call spreads, and short puts.
Read 5 tweets
25 Feb
1/n

$FTCH

* Revenue: $540M (+64%) vs $515.77M estimates
* EPS: -0.06 vs -0.13
2/n

$FTCH

Next Year Guidance

* Digital Platform GMV of $3.6 billion to $3.7 billion, representing growth of 30% to 35% year-over-year

* Adjusted EBITDA margin of 1% to 2%

🚨🚨🚨This would mean positive EPS vs -$0.62 estimates
3/n

$FTCH

Full Year Analysts had +35% forecasts

Company guides GMV to be $3.6 billion to $3.7 billion, representing growth of 30% to 35% year-over-year
Read 10 tweets
25 Feb
$NVTA Queued up as a GTC limit.

Looking for ~$10, current price $17.

Let's see a puke sell off in the next few weeks. Maybe even a short seller piece that can help. Image
2/n

$GOGO Queued up for a puke.

Unlikely but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Limit GTC for < $3.00
Current price $4.50 Image
3/n

$FSLY

Queued up for a puke.

Limit GTC to buy for ~$5.00
Current price $12 Image
Read 17 tweets
24 Feb
1/n

$JMIA Some interesting facts.

* JumiaPay +58% in 2020 while GMV excl electronics +15%

Implication: JumiaPay adoption is running high
2/n

$JMIA

CFDR (cancellations, failed deliveries, or returns) dropped from 30% of GMV to 25%.

The bearish thesis was that this would rise, not shrink.

There is tangible and material improvement.

(As a tentpole, $AMZM is 15%+ just for 'R.')
3/n

$JMIA

On the call the CEO was very clear.

They will turn a profit first, likely within 3 quarters, then push to grow.

That's it.

They will prove the prejudicial voices wrong with a profit, and then grow with that as ammunition for any doubters about profitability.
Read 17 tweets

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