Weekly French vaccination thread.
Your booster dose of good news…or reasonably good news, with some annoying worries and problems.
The French vaccine roll-out has accelerated again. Almost 2.5m 1st and 2nd doses were given in 7 days, compared to just under 2m last week. 1/ 12
On Thursday night France exceeded its 10m first doses target for 15 April by almost 2m.
A comparison with the UK is interesting.
Current 7 day averages of 1st and 2nd jabs given in 24 hours:
UK: 437,317.
France: 357,120.
2/12
It’s not a contest but it was made so by much of the UK media
Mail/Express etc please note France/EU are now vaxxing at a high rate. Why? Initial problems have been resolved/Pfizer doses are plentiful
Why is UK slower than it was? AZ is failing UK just as it failed the EU. 3/12
Latest French stats.
As of last night (using the stats over 24 hrs up to 5pm each day provided by the health ministry) France had given 16,698,414 jabs since 27 Dec. Of these 12,287,795 were first doses and 4,410, 619 were 2nd doses. 4/12
There was push-back last week when I spoke of French resistance to the AZ vaccine. Much anecdotal/ official comment suggests there IS a chunk of the population which refuses AZ
DK is abandoning use of AZ
The EU will almost certainly NOT place a new AZ order for next year. 5/12
But French figures for use of doses suggest there is NO huge AZ problem here. Overall (by my calculations, which I admit are broad-brush ) France has now used 81% of doses received.
Pfizer: 88.2%. AZ: 70.5%. Moderna: 64%.
Why the problem with Moderna? No idea. 6/12
For age-groups covered by the Fr. rollout, look at this excellent graphic by @Nicolasberrod of Le Parisien. (For truly detailed vax coverage follow Nicolas.)
More than two thirds of the French pop. over 75 and 22.7% of adults have now had a first jab 7/12
The govt said this week that 100% of care home residents had been first vaxxed. Covid deaths in care homes have fallen spectacularly - from 1,300 a week in Nov. to 50 a week now. Who says vaccines are useless? The same effect, I hope, will soon be felt in France as a whole 8/12
France’s next target is 20m first jabs – 40% of the adult population - by 15 May. To hit that target, 265, 938 shots a day will be needed. The current 1st dose average is 233, 688. It’s reachable – especially if the gradual improvement in the weekend vax rollout continues. 9/12
Now the worries
Rollout of the J&J “1 dose” vaccine is still suspended in US and EU because of blood clot issues. France may soon allow J&J for the over 55’s only – like AZ. Pfizer-BioNtech are producing 50m extra doses for EU this quarter so there should be no big problem 10/12
The third wave of the pandemic in France – 82% UK variant – is still at a high level with over 30,000 cases and 300 deaths a day. The grim frontier of 100,000 Covid deaths in France was passed during the week.
11/12
However, there are signs a plateau has been reached. Numbers in acute care have been stable at circa 5,900 for 5 days
The govt has started planning for a gradual easing of restrictions – including opening restaurant terraces and some museums – from mid-May.
Fingers crossed
12/12

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More from @john_lichfield

14 Apr
Weekly French Covid thread
There is good news on the key stats which suggest that the third wave has reached a plateau and may have peaked. On the other had France is about to pass – today or tomorrow – the grim milestone of 100,000 official C19 deaths since March last year 1/10
Other bad news. There are growing fears about the possible impact of the Brazilian variant which appears to be more aggressive and more damaging to younger people. As things stand the Braz. AND SA variants are 4.2% of French cases. Flights from Brazil have been suspended. 2/10
The French vax programme continues to flourish (largely unremarked by UK media). There were 453,689 injections yesterday – a new Tues record – including 309,704 1st shots. The target was 10m 1st jabs by April 15. France was at 11.3m last night and could hit 12m tomorrow.
3/10
Read 10 tweets
10 Apr
Weekly French vaccination thread.
The French roll-out, still described as “stuttering” or “glacial” in UK media (and even some Fr media) continues to boom. Over 500,000 doses (1st/ 2nd) were given yesterday, a record. Fr should exceed its 10m 1st jabs 15 April target by 2m.
1/12
There are still problems, however.
I was premature last week to say there was NO widespread anti-AstraZeneca feeling in France. Resistance to AZ because of the clot issue meant use fell to 61% this week, with 1.7m doses now in stock. 2/12
Weekend stats also continue to be poor – despite Macron’s promise to vax morning, noon and night. Around 300,000 jabs in 3 days over Easter. To hit its 15 May target of 20m 1st shots, France has to jump from 214,000 to 266,000 a day – doable but more weekend jabs would help
3/12
Read 12 tweets
7 Apr
Weekly French Covid Thread
Pr. Macron’s gamble last week on a 4-week nationwide lockdown light – a gamble on top of a gamble – calls for signs of a weakening of the 3rd wave of the pandemic by mid-April. The stats so far are vaguely encouraging but hard to read conclusively.
1/8
There has been a definite slowing but not yet a peaking, of the average number of daily cases (see @Nicolasberrod graph below) Deaths have fallen back again, after rising last week. The hospital and acute care populations continue to rise rapidly. 2/8
On the other strand of Macron’s gamble – the acceleration of the vaccine roll-out – the figures look v. good (despite a falling off over the 3-day Easter weekend). France should hit its April 15 target of 10m first vaccination by tomorrow or Friday, one week early. 3/8
Read 8 tweets
3 Apr
Weekly French vaccination thread.
Headline: “France overtakes UK in daily rate of first vax doses shock….”
Yes, it's true, at least over the last few days.
Context is needed, however. Just as the Daily Mail or Daily Express always provide don’t they? 1/12
If you include 1st and 2nd doses, the UK is still well ahead of France, averaging over 500,000 jabs a day, according to official UKG figures.
However, France in the last 4 days has excelled itself with over 1.4m total doses (350,000 a day.) and 1.1m 1st jabs (275,000 a day). 2/12
In terms of 1st doses alone, France HAS overtaken Britain, which has been averaging 235,000 a day, falling to 153,823 on 1 April.
This fall in the UKG was anticipated as hundreds of thousands of 2nd jabs came due. Britain is now “2nd-jabbing” at around 270,000 a day.
3/12
Read 12 tweets
31 Mar
April will be the cruellest month. That, in effect, is Macron's warning but also promise to France tonight. One more big effort in the next month and the vax campaign will then start to kick in and save us.
Present restrictions are not enough. We will lose control unless we act. But no panic. For next month a big new effort is necessary.
Reinforcements for intensive care. Icu already lifted from 5,000 beds 70 7,000 will be extended to 10,000. Existing lockdown light in 19 départements will be extended from Saturday to all metropolitan France.
Read 11 tweets
31 Mar
Presdt Macron is addressing the nation in 40 minutes or so. What I understand is – and this may not be gospel – he will announce an extension of the existing “lockdown light” covering 19 départements to whole of France. In other words, Easter travel is cancelled for everyone. 1/3
Schools may close for almost a month, by extending the school holidays. From 26 April, they will apparently resume for primary and nursery schools but will go on line for colleges and lycées until 3 May. Unemployment pay will be given to parents who have to stay at home 2/3
Intensive care capacity to be boosted by mobilising medical and nursing students and retired health workers. Vaccination programme to be accelerated so that the 60-plus are eligible for jabs in mid-April and 50-plus in mid-May. 3/3
Read 4 tweets

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