Thread by @john_lichfield

Weekly French vaccination thread.
Headline: “France overtakes UK in daily rate of first vax doses shock….”
Yes, it's true, at least over the last few days.
Context is needed, however. Just as the Daily Mail or Daily Express always provide don’t they? 1/12

If you include 1st and 2nd doses, the UK is still well ahead of France, averaging over 500,000 jabs a day, according to official UKG figures.
However, France in the last 4 days has excelled itself with over 1.4m total doses (350,000 a day.) and 1.1m 1st jabs (275,000 a day). 2/12

In terms of 1st doses alone, France HAS overtaken Britain, which has been averaging 235,000 a day, falling to 153,823 on 1 April.
This fall in the UKG was anticipated as hundreds of thousands of 2nd jabs came due. Britain is now “2nd-jabbing” at around 270,000 a day.
3/12

All the same, the figures illustrate the huge progress made by the French vaccine rollout (since doses have become more plentiful in the EU supply scheme). France is now using 86% of its doses (by my calculation) compared to 50% in Jan/early Feb. 4/12

UK media and French opposition pols have yet to spot this acceleration. They still speak of a glacial French roll-out. It was. It is no longer.
More acceleration is coming – and needed if Macron is to open up Fr. from 15 May and end the “lockdown light” imposed from today. 5/12

Here are some stats.
In the last week, France has given just short of 2m jabs, including 1.5m first jabs. The total of 1st doses is now just over 9m and 2nd doses 3m. Even with a lull for the Easter weekend, Fr. should hit its 15 April target of 10m 1st doses a week early
6/12

Another myth is being busted. France is now using 82% of AstraZeneca doses (2.4m out of 2.9m). Despite the ban on AZ for under-55’s, the “Oxford vaccine” is NOT being rejected widely in France. The main limit on AZ use is AZ’s own sad performance in making doses for the EU.
7/12

Interesting to see, by the by, that the much-mocked European concerns about possible links between the AZ vaccine and and very, very rare kinds of blood clots are no longer being entirely dismissed in Britain. 8/12

bbc.com/news/health-56…

Looking ahead.
In the month of April, France expects 12.2 m doses from the EU scheme – Pfizer 7.7m, AZ 3m, Moderna 900,000 and J&J 600,000. With vast amounts of 2nd doses now also due in France (maybe 4,000,000 in April), this should allow circa 8m 1st doses to be given. 9/12

So France should speed up ,moren in the coming weeks, with big vaccinodromes and mobilisation of vets, soldiers, med students etc. The aim is 10m 1st doses by April 15 (almost reached); 20m by May 15 (doable); and 30m by 15 June (also doable).
What do those targets mean?
10/12

France has roughly 50m adults. If 80% accept a vax (despite what they tell pollsters), that’s 40m people. Half will be 1st-vaxxed by the middle of next month.
If herd immunity is reached at 70%, that’s 35m people – just over what France hopes to Ist vaccinate by mid-June. 11/12

In theory, as the vax rate and “first vaxxed” totals climb, Covid cases (now averaging nearly 50,000 a day) should fall rapidly.
It was on this basis that Macron promised that France would start to open up by mid-May.
It’s a hazardous promise. It’s not an impossible one.
12/12