One of the fascinating things is how rarely people challenge those who say that the Trump steel and aluminum tariffs created/saved jobs in that industry... The American steel industry was shedding jobs even before this pandemic... data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES…
In January 2020 the US primary metals industry employed 5,000 fewer people than it did in January 2016, When Trump took office...
The primary metals industry in March of this year employed 30k fewer people than in March of last year.

One reason for that is a slashing of capacity that has happened in the steel industry.
That lack of capacity and supply has driven up domestic steel prices. Which means even with the tariffs it’s cheaper to import steel than buy domestically-produced metal, as @JoeDeaux wrote here:

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
It’s also worth pointing out that it’s very unlikely that jobs are going to come back in a hurry at big legacy steel mills in places like Indiana and Michigan that US Steel has shut down in recent years.
Oops. Got that wrong... Trump took office in January 2017, of course...
Obviously got that wrong re comparison to Jan 2016. But the relevant period is really what happened after tariffs went into place in 2018.

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More from @sdonnan

7 Apr
We need to talk about the middle class.

For decades the idea guiding business decisions around the world has been that of an ever-growing new middle in emerging economies.

Well you can add that to the list of economic truths upended by this pandemic.

bloomberg.com/features/2021-…
The global middle class - there's 2.5bn people out there earning $10-50/day - shrank last year for the first time since the 1990s.

And as @GitaGopinath warned this week that's not the end of the story. Developing economies are recovering far slower than places like the US.
As @carmenmreinhart told us the global economy is "bifurcating".

It sure looks like the world is pivoting from an era of economic convergence between the rich and poor worlds to one of divergence.

But that's not just a story about data. It's about people.

Meet Ravi Sharma.
Read 12 tweets
6 Apr
The challenge for the US here is that the US doesn’t set tax policy in other countries. And that policy makers in other countries don’t have to look back very far to see a very different message coming out of the White House...
And how do you enforce it? Here’s a reminder of how the EU’s efforts to force Apple to pay higher taxes in Ireland have gone: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 5 tweets
11 Mar
Biden’s about to test just how much bipartisan backing there is for a new American industrial policy. But the forces he’s taking on in his bid to boost manufacturing aren’t just political...

My latest for ⁦@BW⁩:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
One big hurdle: How do you make producing in US cost-competitive?

GE Lighting last week shut down a line at its plant in Bucyrus, Ohio, that made LED bulbs. They spent a year and millions trying to make it cost-competitive. And the company says they just couldn’t...
Another: In all likelihood the dollar is going to appreciate significantly in the coming year or two as the economy accelerated faster than others. That’s going to hit the bottom line of folks producing in America for export markets.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 12 tweets
25 Feb
And we're off with Katherine Tai's confirmation hearing... Chairman Ron Wyden kicks it off with a call for "smarter, stronger" US trade policy... "Four more years of mean tweets and chaos from the White House won't cut it..."

finance.senate.gov
Here's five questions I'd like to see senators ask @USTradeRep nominee Katherine Tai:

bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
Interesting shot fired by Mike Crapo in his opening statement re the Biden plan to hit the pause button on new trade deals. He's pushing for Biden to go forward with a deal with the UK. Now pointing to China and RCEP... He's calling for "energetic and effective" trade policy.
Read 42 tweets
25 Feb
Today in why context matters...

The initial jobless claims data out this morning points to what some are calling a "sharp fall" in weekly claims.

Claims last week were 3.5x what they were a year ago. The 4-week moving average was almost 4x.
And that doesn't include special programs set up in response to the pandemic that the latest data show covering >12m of the >19m in the US claiming or receiving unemployment benefits.

Another bit of context: 19m is the population of New York state.
Another bit of context:

The decline was largely due to the extreme weather that hit a large swathe of the US last week, as @joebrusuelas points out here: realeconomy.rsmus.com/initial-jobles…
Read 5 tweets
24 Feb
Been thinking about this lovely piece by my former colleague @JoshuaChaffin... My initial take on the 5 I’d invite to dinner was: Philip Roth, Don Delillo, Jan Morris. Nina Simone and Tim Flannery (Aussie polyglot). But I’m having doubts.

Your 5?

ft.com/content/75f76d…
My main qualm is I’m worried that I have too many ornery people on my list... I’m pretty sure I’d just end up in a corner talking to Jan, Nina and Tim while Philip and Don grunted at each other in a corner.
Then again I bet Don mixes a mean Old Fashioned... And Philip would bring a nice bottle of wine...
Read 6 tweets

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