How Not to Die
Survival sounds trivial, but as the #1 predictor of success, it's underrated. Let's break it down!
In a nutshell, it means:
1. Reducing risk
2. Building strength
3. Navigating crises
Survival sounds trivial, but as the #1 predictor of success, it's underrated. Let's break it down!
In a nutshell, it means:
1. Reducing risk
2. Building strength
3. Navigating crises
But why think survival is important?
It's a question worth considering from first principles.
"Deciding whether or not life is worth living is to answer the fundamental question in philosophy.” —Albert Camus
It's a question worth considering from first principles.
"Deciding whether or not life is worth living is to answer the fundamental question in philosophy.” —Albert Camus
First, our survival is good for the universe.
Some disagree.
They think humanity is bad. We're destroying the earth through pollution, garbage, greenhouse gases, etc.
Some disagree.
They think humanity is bad. We're destroying the earth through pollution, garbage, greenhouse gases, etc.
In reality, the longer lots of people live, the more knowledge possible, and the higher the likelihood of finding solutions that enable all species to flourish.
For more, see this thread:
For more, see this thread:
https://twitter.com/james_d_baird/status/1381675761359273993?s=20
Second, survival is critical for health. After all, the healthiest people are the ones not dead.
Also, survival means more time to study promising research areas like reverse aging.
For more, follow @balajis:
Also, survival means more time to study promising research areas like reverse aging.
For more, follow @balajis:
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1260967171422748674?s=20
Third, survival is critical for business.
@shl's advice on avoiding startup failure:
"Don't die. Always have enough money in the bank to keep going. From my experience, the startups that don't go out of business within the first couple years end up doing quite well."
@shl's advice on avoiding startup failure:
"Don't die. Always have enough money in the bank to keep going. From my experience, the startups that don't go out of business within the first couple years end up doing quite well."
Fourth, survival is necessary for successful investing.
Buy world-class businesses, don't interrupt compounding, and "if you live long enough, you'll get what you deserve," as Munger says.
Buy world-class businesses, don't interrupt compounding, and "if you live long enough, you'll get what you deserve," as Munger says.
Alright, survival is important.
Now let's get practical.
How do you not die?
Now let's get practical.
How do you not die?
First, reduce risk with everything you want to keep (relationships, body, soul, money, etc.).
• Mostly do what worked longest in history (be conservative and trust Lindy).
• Dabble in innovations that could make things dramatically better.
• Mostly do what worked longest in history (be conservative and trust Lindy).
• Dabble in innovations that could make things dramatically better.
https://twitter.com/james_d_baird/status/1381059204711116800?s=20
Second, make yourself antifragile.
Take what you care about and expose it to non-fatal stressors of a broad variety and degree of intensity.
• Have hard conversations with your kids
• Try to disrupt your own business
• Play physically difficult sports
Take what you care about and expose it to non-fatal stressors of a broad variety and degree of intensity.
• Have hard conversations with your kids
• Try to disrupt your own business
• Play physically difficult sports
The past two tactics focused on preparation.
They equip you to avoid near-death experiences and give you strength for when you look death in the face.
But what do you do in the moment, when death snarls and licks its lips?
They equip you to avoid near-death experiences and give you strength for when you look death in the face.
But what do you do in the moment, when death snarls and licks its lips?
Disclaimer: the following principles DO NOT apply in any situation other than a true, imminent, life-or-death crisis.
First, be a Churchill, not a Chamberlain.
Better an alive alarmist than dead soothsayer.
The hardest part of a crisis is recognizing the gravity of the situation.
Better an alive alarmist than dead soothsayer.
The hardest part of a crisis is recognizing the gravity of the situation.
Second, don't listen to:
• Suites
• Journalists
• Academics
• Billionaires
• Best-selling authors
• Politicians
Nor anyone else with no skin in the game and lots of skill at telling stories, shaking hands, making slide decks, giving TED Talks, and writing op-eds.
• Suites
• Journalists
• Academics
• Billionaires
• Best-selling authors
• Politicians
Nor anyone else with no skin in the game and lots of skill at telling stories, shaking hands, making slide decks, giving TED Talks, and writing op-eds.
Third, listen urgently to people who:
1. are old
2. have lots of relevant experience
3. survived tragedies
4. use cool, calm reason
5. could lose everything you could lose
Don't settle for anyone with less three of five.
1. are old
2. have lots of relevant experience
3. survived tragedies
4. use cool, calm reason
5. could lose everything you could lose
Don't settle for anyone with less three of five.
Fourth, grab partners who:
1. do what you say
2. get the job done
3. are smart
Prioritize your partners in that order.
1. do what you say
2. get the job done
3. are smart
Prioritize your partners in that order.
Fifth, do something. Anything.
Action creates clarity.
Be decisive and don't look back.
Action creates clarity.
Be decisive and don't look back.
Sixth, save others, but not everyone.
Don't only lookout for yourself. Save as many people as you can.
But you're not Jesus. He can save the world. You can't.
You'll have to make trade offs. Make the best choices you can.
Don't only lookout for yourself. Save as many people as you can.
But you're not Jesus. He can save the world. You can't.
You'll have to make trade offs. Make the best choices you can.
Seventh, take radical, unswerving responsibility for the consequences.
Did some bad stuff happen as a result? Are people giving you crap?
Well, good. At least some of us are still around to debate what should have been done differently.
Did some bad stuff happen as a result? Are people giving you crap?
Well, good. At least some of us are still around to debate what should have been done differently.
The best way to survive is to never brush shoulders with death.
“All I want to know is where I'm going to die so I'll never go there.” —Munger
But when you do meet the Reaper,
greet him as a new enemy or an old friend.
Never as a colleague.
“All I want to know is where I'm going to die so I'll never go there.” —Munger
But when you do meet the Reaper,
greet him as a new enemy or an old friend.
Never as a colleague.
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