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17 Apr, 8 tweets, 4 min read
Still quite a bit of uncertainty about this new Indian variant, but this much at least seems clear: as transmission continues unabated, allowing the virus limitless opportunities to mutate, the variants emerging dominant are invariably worse, not better, than what came before.
As B.1.1.7 spread and became dominant in country after country, it eventually became clear that it was not only more contagious but also ~60-70% more deadly than older variants.
When B.1.351 (the S. African variant) was studied, it was found to evade neutralizing antibodies from the serum of both vaccinated & previously infected individuals & seemed to infect previously infected people as easily as those never previously infected. fda.gov/media/144245/d…
And though much about P.1 is uncertain, early indications are that is likely both more infectious (200-260% as infectious as older variants) & more deadly (~2x as lethal) even than B.1.1.7. It also seems to cause many reinfections and evade antibodies.
Hard to say what new horrors this "double mutant" variant, B.1.617 could bring. If rich countries would grant patent-free access to vaccines and share knowledge & technical know-how, countless lives would be saved. Instead, profits have come first. nytimes.com/2021/03/21/wor…
The Gates Foundation has done grave damage to public health & helped condemn millions to death or suffering by opposing all attempts to dismantle IP barriers standing in the way of vaccinating the world. Bill Gates is a menace to society. newrepublic.com/article/162000…
I wonder if Gates's opposition to any relaxation of IP barriers to save lives has anything to do with the fact that his fortune is entirely dependent on governmental enforcement of copyright laws? Hmm.

Good article by @DeanBaker13 on this subject.
cepr.net/the-secret-to-…
Even apart from Covid, there are compelling reasons to abolish our current patent system, which has become nothing more than the preferred legal method for corporate rent-seeking. Patents impede scientific progress & warp incentives in dangerous ways. cepr.net/patents-and-th…

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Ryan Profile picture
7 Apr
Facebook censorship is out of control. In the past 10 days I've had 4 comments removed for "violating community standards." All were Covid related, & I have no idea why they were suppressed. Perhaps someone here can figure it out. Here's a censored comment from yesterday. Image
The comment above was (I think) on the superb Hoosier Covid Update page, run by the estimable & amiable @gbosslet. The two below were on a friend's page, which was not public but only viewable to his friends. They were supposedly flagged as spam, though I cannot fathom why. ImageImage
This last one I tried posting three times, only to find it disappear almost immediately each time. This was on the excellent Public Health Is Your Health Too page (follow!), run by @EpiRNActivist. In addition to the text, one of @MicahPollak's superb graphs was attached. Image
Read 7 tweets
Ryan Profile picture
29 Dec 20
1/ So I found out this garbage meta-analysis is apparently being shared all over the place. I decided to take a look at the studies they cited as evidence that asymptomatic and presymptomatic spread are marginal. What I found was shocking to say the least.
2/ They only included four studies that analyzed asymptomatic or presymptomatic transmission. One of the four studies was based on 8 cases and their 23 contacts. Four cases were presymptomatic and four asymptomatic. One of their 23 contacts was infected.
3/ The one case of transmission was from one of the four presymptomatic cases. They did not analyze any cases of symptomatic transmission. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Read 22 tweets
Ryan Profile picture
13 Nov 20
1/ Thanks to help from @Poppendieck & @CorsIAQ, I've used my @AranetIoT CO2 meter to estimate the # of air changes per hour (ACH) in my classroom. CO2 builds up when students are in a room & falls when they leave. Description & graphs below. #covidco2 @jljcolorado @ShellyMBoulder
2/ If you record the CO2 level each minute after the room empties, plug those measurements into the formula pictured below, and graph the resulting values as a function of time (designated in hours), the slope of a linear best-fit line reveals the ACH. @MarcelHarmon1 @CathNoakes
3/ So the rate of change of the CO2 level functions as a proxy measurement for ventilation. I trust if you’ve made it this far, you are aware of the vital importance of ventilation in preventing aerosol-spread pathogens like SARS-CoV-2. @akm5376 @jksmith34 @stephensbrent
Read 16 tweets
Ryan Profile picture
7 Nov 20
1/ I went to the eye doctor for a glaucoma checkup earlier this week & took my CO2 monitor with me to see how good the ventilation was there. It's a medical office & a new building (~3 years old), so I expected excellent ventilation. The ventilation was not excellent. #covidco2
2/ Instead, I was appalled to see the CO2 jump from ~500 ppm in my car to 1600+ immediately upon entering the building, which was actually quite empty apart from workers. I only saw one other patient the entire time I was there.
When I went back to an exam room for testing, the CO2 levels got even worse, nearing 2000 ppm. Here's the full day's CO2 levels, including the levels from my HS/MS classroom throughout the school day for comparison. @jljcolorado @CorsIAQ @ShellyMBoulder @jksmith34 @Poppendieck
Read 7 tweets
Ryan Profile picture
11 Oct 20
Pictured throughout thread are CO2 readings from my classroom Aranet4 CO2 meter. I have two 90-min classes (8:00-9:30, 9:40-11:10) & one 25-min homework/reading period (11:20-11:45) before lunch/prep from 11:50-1:15 & one 95-min class after (1:25-3:00). #covidco2 1/7
Maximum readings:

10-1: ~1200
10-2: ~1200
10-5: ~1200
10-6: 1447
10-7: 1345
10-8: 1446
10-9: 1448

Like ~80% of the rooms in my school, mine has no windows, but I'm lucky to have two doors, one opening to the hallway and one to our science lab. #covidco2 2/7
When I can keep both doors open, CO2 usually stays btwn 1000-1200, depending on the size of my class, which varies from 11 to 26.

I have 11 HS students in my AP Physics class & 16-26 6th-graders in my other 5 classes. My room volume is 215 m^3, & area 78.3 m^2. #covidco2 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Ryan Profile picture
6 Aug 20
@j_g_allen Did you actually get to ask this question to Fauci? I would love to hear his answer to this.

I would guess the true answer is that such research, while essential to public health, can't be transformed into corporate profits in any obvious way. It's the same reason... /1
@j_g_allen ...that research on patentable drugs gets funded lavishly while research on behavioral & environmental ways (as well as non-patentable medical remedies) to improve health get virtually no funding. Research comparing the efficacy of expensive new drugs to older, cheap drugs... /2
@j_g_allen ...is vastly underfunded as well because it undermines the profitability of pharma corporations. The underfunding of desperately needed research like your own is a serious problem, but it requires political reform to destroy the overwhelmingly dominant power of... /3
Read 4 tweets

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