1/ Who is this person?

"For many years up until the pandemic I had dinner with Charlie Munger every Tuesday night."
2/ He has said:

"We normally don’t talk about specific companies. Once you achieve a certain notoriety in a certain field, people tend to really copy that. This is not the behavior we want to encourage. Instead of giving people fish, it is much better to teach them how to fish."
3/ "To have a business that generates above average returns over a long period in a compounded fashion is against the natural order of things. Only a small slice of all businesses and companies belong in that category. They are rare."
roiss.substack.com/p/transcript-o…. Li Lu: "Financial markets seem to be there to catch human weaknesses. If you don’t understand something, and just pretend to, you will be busted at some point. Only when you truly understand you will be able to add when the security is down 50% or more."
"You want to be a specialist in the company you choose to invest, but a generalist of business. That way your circle of competence can constantly evolve and enlarge over time."

"Your focus on value evolves over time and different individuals tend to focus on different areas."

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More from @trengriffin

19 Apr
1/ Elon Musk is like a farmer driving a tractor on a straight one lane road at full speed toward his objective. He sees other farmers coming from the other direction on the same one lane road, but knows he needs to get to the end of the road by a certain time to achieve his goal.
2/ Elon can’t pull over and let the other farmer’s go past him. Too slow. So he has taken his steering wheel from his tractor and thrown it into a field so the other farmers can see what he did. He wants everyone to see he is irrevocably committed so they get out of his way.
3/ This sets up an epic competition with other satellite systems including Amazon's LEO constellation. This competition has all the elements of a great movie. A small team of people that included me set all this in motion at the WRC in 1995. This is fun! cnbc.com/2021/04/19/ama…
Read 12 tweets
16 Apr
This below was about circle of competence. What about margin of safety?

Munger: It is "acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock.”

Li Lu: "If you buy stock with a sufficient margin of safety, the probability is with you.”
Li Lu:

"Investing is inherently about predicting the future. But predictions can never reach 100% accuracy; they can only fall between zero and something approaching 100%. So when we make a judgement, we need a large buffer. This is called margin of safety."
Michael Mauboussin: "Margin of safety can be restated as a discount to expected value. For every stock there is an intrinsic value, and the deeper the discount the stock price is to intrinsic value, the lower the risk." retailinvestor.org/pdf/MarginOfSa…
Read 4 tweets
12 Apr
1/ What you write for 50,000 fans isn't what you write for millions of readers.

A writer doesn't have a least common denominator limitation and can go deeper on a topic like MoviePass.

A writer can also write about a niche topic like MoviePass "churn." nytimes.com/2021/04/11/bus…
2/ That writers have the ability to work for themselves creates a wholesale transfer printing problem for the publication. The better BATNA of writers even benefits writers who stay at the New York Times at salary time. Writers will be paid more. That's a very good thing.
3/ "Substack" is bring used as shorthand by intermediaries who feel threatened by writers selling their work directly to customers. Many types of creators in different types of creative arts are eliminating intermediaries from their value chain. The shift to D2C is unstoppable.
Read 4 tweets
11 Apr
Telesat aims to launch its first batch of 298 satellites built by Thales in early 2023, with partial service in high latitudes later that same year, and full global service in 2023. It is estimated to cost half as much as the $10B SpaceX and Amazon Kuiper."reuters.com/article/busine…
"OneWeb plans to have 648 satellites at 1,200 km in orbit to provide a global service. The most recent launch on March 25 took it up to 146 satellites. The fifth launch will be in June, when OneWeb aims to provide broadband to the whole of the UK." businessinsider.in/tech/news/onew…
Craig Moffett: Using Starship for Starlink satellite launches may be important for SpaceX to meet the FCC's 2027 build requirements. The company could increase its rocket launch cadence to 200 Starlink satellites per month, up from the 120 per month." nasaspaceflight.com/2021/04/starsh…
Read 6 tweets
11 Apr
1/ "The value of a financial asset is the present value of future cash flows. If you don’t believe that, please put this aside and resume your normal daily activities." morganstanley.com/im/publication…

The two previous sentences written by Michael Mauboussin apply to this Twitter thread.
2/ "Intrinsic value is the number that if you were all knowing about the future and you could predict all the cash a business would give you between now and judgement day, discounted at the proper discount rate." Buffett

The predicting the future part is what makes this hard.
3/ "It is important to understand that intrinsic value is not an exact figure, but a range that is based on your assumptions."

Jean-Marie Eveillard

"Anytime anyone gives you some simplified formula for figuring it out, forget it."

Warren Buffett
Read 6 tweets
10 Apr
When a financial disaster strikes Value-at-Risk (VaR) is inevitably there like a deadly virus.

VaR “cuts off the part of the probability distribution (the extremes) that you most need to worry about.”

VaR is like "asking children to mark their own homework.” James Montier
When I've pointed out the insanity of VaR before some people say: "No one models Gaussian any more." Experience proves that some still do if they want to justify picking up dimes in front of steam rollers. As Munger says: "Show me the incentives and I'll show you the outcome."
"Fat Tony, a Brooklyn street-smart character, builds his success on the paradox that the only prediction one can safely make is that those who base their business on prediction will eventually blow up. So Fat Tony takes the other side." fooledbyrandomness.com/ECONOMIST2013.…
Read 4 tweets

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