Koala wonders who could be a benificiary of a carbon price / trading mechanism being implemented in China, some slides 1/n
Anyone else feel like a caipirinha or just the koala? 2/n
Koala wonders why Twiggy & FMG are investing so much in the potential of hydrogen? 3/n
The data kind of says it all don't you think 4/n
These premiums are not well understood by the public buyside 5/n
And that scrap will be our savior hypothesis? Ah, speak for yourself but the koala prefers high quality steel that will accomplish what is required of it in a building or an automobile 6/n
It's amazing how maintaining a library of old presentations over the years is a unique resource to understand where the world is going and what trends are accelerating 7/n
Especially when you realize the data shows EAFs still require metallics to supplement their scrap feeds (which a separate topic entirely, scrap is going to get weird next 10 years) 8/n
So what's the conclusion here?

Take step back from the last qtr, the last yr, or even the last 2 yrs, the longer term trends are there but everyone is just focused on the next print & their next bonus cycle

Oh, and Simandou is 10+ yrs away from hitting 100MM tpa production 9/9

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More from @YellowLabLife

19 Apr
With the trend to sulphide deposits this decade in the copperbelt, the koala proposes the most impactful ESG investment that could be made right now is copper smelting capacity in the DRC which would be hydropowered. Let's discuss...1/n
Kamoa-Kakula is all sulphide, Mutanda oxides almost depleted, will then be sulphide, same with Kinsevere. TFM may have another decade of oxides but either way...sulphide deposits produce copper concentrate not metal. What is copper concentrate Koala? 2/n
Copper concentrate is a powder that is 25-50% Cu depending on the minerology of the ore deposit. If its chalcopyrite dominant, closer to 25%, if its pure chalcocite, 50%+ is possible. Why does this matter? 3/n
Read 12 tweets
18 Mar
This is going to be fun...koala time to discuss Paladin

When the book is written on this cycle, the inability or outright refusal of investors to do basic math will reign supreme 1/n
AISC $31/lb before royalties (3% at $40 would be another $1.20)

~US$80MM of capex required to restart (PF cash for the raise ~US$30MM)

2/n
Looks like 7 years of 6MM lb and 10 years of ~3MM lb...so call it 75MM lb total LOM production

$31/lb AISC...use $40/lb, $1 royalty, that's $8/lb margin. Assume no taxes...$8 * 75MM is <US$600MM undiscounted FCF, $50/lb...3/n
Read 8 tweets
27 Feb
We need to talk about capital allocation in gold producers. First, the koala is referencing this off of multiple sellside comps tables that say senior producers (1mm+ ozpa) trade at 0.7-1.3x spot gold 5% NAV...let’s get into it 1/n
So what explains the variance in valuation? It’s jurisdictions of operations and in some cases market understands and prices in upside optionality in an asset being realized before it’s formally in the estimates. 2/n
But let’s step out to 10k feet. We all get dividends are value neutral, company gives the option to allocate capital to its shareholders. Dividends are a transfer of optionality. Buybacks acquire an asset (company stock) that will generate a return. Growth capex same thing 3/n
Read 22 tweets
7 Aug 20
Thinking about the role of sizing in a portfolio. Some PM's size on conviction (not valuation, but quality of thesis, set up, path to getting paid), others purely on valuation (so double down if it goes against them all else unchanged), others on both. It's got me thinking 1/n
Obviously everyone who is successful over a long time in this business has both an established research process and a portfolio construction process that has worked for them. And used to work for someone who preached scaling in and out of positions as valuation evolved 2/n
And yet, it seems like all that sizing means you constantly are unwinding your successful trades as they become successful and sizing up your bad trades as the hole gets deeper and deeper. 3/n
Read 11 tweets
23 Jun 20
Had a long conversation with @ShortSightedCap last night and the day before about the upcoming SPACkman from @BillAckman

Expect a thread from Shortsighted later (Think he nails what Bill's target is)

Let's talk about the proposed structure of SPACkman

Thoughts welcome 1/n
In trying to "evolve" the SPAC and go big, Ackman has destroyed what actually makes a SPAC a compelling investment & structure. So let's talk about how a SPAC can be "something for everyone" 2/n
Cash alternative with free optionality - won't lose money, just opportunity cost of equity v risk free but warrant free so if a deal, returns can get supercharged.

Rates are zero, so if earning zero on cash, would rather get a free option than own a CD w/ no optionality 3/n
Read 25 tweets

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