Starting a thread to collect some insights on $RDFN.
First: Redfin's Brokerage Market Share since 2015. Chugging along up and to the right, broke 1% recently.
Second: $RDFN's brokerage transaction over time, by source.
Three thoughts. 1) Immense seasonality. 2) Use of partnered agents hasn't really moved except during the last two quarters. 3) First party transactions are up and to the right.
Third: $RDFN Redfin Now (iBuying) was shut down during COVID which is the primary reason why this company (and $Z) can't be analyzed on the topline.
As they restart iBuying, topline growth is going to look insane in 2021.
4/ $RDFN Other revenue, which includes Redfin Mortgage, Title Forward, and data/advertising revenue, has begun to take on the beginnings of an S-curve shape.
Dotted line is the exp trendline.
5/ Question: "Is there evidence that $RDFN is increasing the attach rate of mortgage and title services?"
I created a metric of the percentage share among other and Redfin brokerage revenue.
This shows that an increasing % of customer spend with $RDFN is on mortgage & title.
6/ $RDFN Revenue and Gross Profit by Segment
You see iBuying, while impactful on the top-line, has effectively no impact on the profitability of the business.
Even the most efficient iBuyer, $OPEN, only saw 8.5% GPM in 2020 - why I constantly caution on using EV/S for iBuyers.
7/ $RDFN Quarterly Brokerage Revenue Distribution
I take the average quarterly share of a year's brokerage revenue since 2015.
Q1, on average, only composes 16% of a year's revenue. The summer selling season is much more important.
Revenue in Q3 is, on average, double Q1.
8/ There is a non-zero chance that $RDFN doesn't experience the above drop-off in 1Q2021 which would have huge implications for 2021 total revenue.
Management cannot hire agents fast enough to meet demand - and that was with 51% growth in 4Q2020.
9.1/ Average Transactions Per Agent
This may be the best bear argument for Redfin. There is no attempt to juice agent productivity as they want the best customer experience.
In Q1, an agent does ~6 transactions. It maxes out in Q2 and Q3 where an agent does ~10.
9.2/ Average Transactions Per Agent
The bear argument would be that their profitable revenue is primarily a function of their agent headcount, which is not easily scalable as management has said they are struggling to hire enough agents. This argument ignores partner revenue.
10/
Great conversation with a former Redfin agent.
"This is a tech company in a real estate agent's clothing. They started as tech and they will forever be tech. They are successful through tech."
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-Total Rev $574M +79% from $321M
beat est. $491M by 17%
-Platform Revenue +101%
-Total Gross profit +139%
-Platform Gross profit of 67% up from 56%
-EBITDA positive $126M up from a loss -$55M
-Operating expenses were only up 28% on 79% revenue growth.
$FSLY
Revenue up 35% YoY to $85M
NonGaap GM of 60.1%, loss $13M
DBNER 139%
Enterprise customers 336, up from 324 in Q4 2020
Average enterprise customer spend $800,000, up from $782,000 in Q4 2020
$FSLY Signal Sciences
Total customer count of 293, up from 280 at the end of Q4 202
Enterprise customer count of 86, up from 78 at the end of Q4 2020
Approximately 25% overlap with existing Fastly enterprise customers
$FSLY Letter highlights a Compute@Edge customer that worked with Google and Roku to dispute connected TV botnets.
$SKLZ Call -
CEO: We are excited to expand our games to synchronous categories including FPS and RTS games. We are currently working with developer partners to test the technology. We anticipate growing to other categories such as battle royale.
We are focusing on partnering with brands. We imagine a world where all brands have their own games where players can [win prizes, etc].