Fritz Profile picture
18 Apr, 8 tweets, 3 min read
Typical reader question:

“I have money in the bank that I don’t know what to do with. I have never invested in stocks before. Where do I begin?”

I'm not a financial advisor but I can relate. You want to compound your capital but also be prudent and not gamble. Here is my advice
Some general advice:
• Diversify broadly. If you don't know what you're doing, just buy everything.
• Avoid leverage. Ruin kills compounding.
• Make contrarian bets. Buy before others do.
• Focus on long-term value. The long-term is easier to predict than the short-term.
1. First invest in freehold property with leverage

Most people who buy property do well because:
• True underlying inflation is probably 3%+
• You can use 5x leverage if not more

That causes the return on your initial housing deposit to reach double-digits. Hard to beat.
2. Set up an online brokerage account

I like Interactive Brokers and Saxo Bank for developed markets. For Asian EM, I recommend Boom Securities (HK) or Monex (Japan). Decent execution, market access, low commissions.

For EM, don't overtrade. Transaction costs can be very high.
3. Diversify broadly

Across:
• Property (including your own house)
• Equities: Equal-weighted ETFs
• Cash / bonds: Gov bonds or corporate bonds, especially if near retirement but money loser otherwise
• Commodities: True commodity funds or commodity producer equities.
4. If you have an interest in stock speculation, experiment with small money.

Your edge is as a consumer. Possible criteria:
• Product is unique / faces no competition
• Still potential to double in size
• PE below 20x
• Low debt
• Not popular among friends
5. Check your portfolio a maximum 4x per year

If you over-trade, you lose both commission money and panic out of positions. Just read earnings results 4x per year then form a view of whether fundamentals are improving or deteriorating. If the latter, you might want to get out.
Full write-up here. Or just send me a message.

asiancenturystocks.com/p/im-a-new-inv…

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More from @Fritz844

18 Apr
I really enjoyed the new book on @naval. Here are my favourite quotes from it (1/x):
"You're not going to get rich renting out your time. You must own equity - a piece of a business - to gain your financial freedom."

Mostly true, in my experience. Either way, you need to build up assets that belong to you alone, and not your employer.
"You will get rich by giving society what it wants but does not yet know how to get. At scale."

Emphasis on 'at scale'.
Read 15 tweets
13 Apr
"How did you go bankrupt?
Gradually, then suddenly."

- Ernest Hemingway
Warning signs in the early "gradual" phase
• Shipments slow down
• Quality slips a bit
• Inventories build compared to sales
• Payables are extended
• Gross margins erode a bit
• Cash balances are falling
Warning signs in the late "gradual" phase
• Production problems
• Material shortages (mgmt tries to conserve cash)
• AR days go up
• Payables > 60 days
• Cash balances low
• Hard to meet payroll
• Credit facilities in technical default
• Employee morale is failing
Read 7 tweets
13 Apr
How to bootstrap a Bloomberg terminal (1/x)
Charts
Stockcharts.com
• Finviz
• Koyfin
Company financials
• Rocket Financial for US shares
• Koyfin
• TIKR
• Yahoo Finance
Read 14 tweets
11 Apr
"You don't know what anything is worth unless you know what can go wrong."

A 2.5-hour interview is perhaps overkill. But Anthony Deden is a smart man.

Key factors he looks at when analysing companies:
Scarcity
Permanence
Independence
What can go wrong?
Would you re-hire CEO if you were the controlling shareholder?
"I have never met a company that has grown subject to just acquisitions... When you look at something reliant on acquisitions or financial engineering, you are looking at an accident waiting to happen."
Read 4 tweets

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