The dangerous spike in weekly TPR over last 2 weeks: Test Positivity Rate (TPR) has jumped to alarming levels across multiple states/UTs this week.
Take a look at the attached analysis that compares TPR between 4th - 10th April and 11th to 17th April 👇
1/5
Notable observations:
✅ CG has recorded a TPR of 29% this week, implying every 3rd person being tested is turning positive.
✅ MH has a high TPR of 24.7% this week, but is the only major state to have shown a decline in weekly TPR compared to last week.
2/5
✅ GA with 23.7% and MP with 19.9%, tails CG and MH wrt TPR this week.
✅ UP has shown a high % increase in weekly TPR, from a low 3.85% from 4 - 10 April to 9.8% from 11 - 17 April. In the same period DL moved from 6.7% to 16.27%.
3/5
✅ Weekly TPR has remained higher than the 5% WHO benchmark across southern states as well (except TS). AP with 13.73% and KL with 13.29% leads the pack. KA - 9.77 and TN - 8.35.
📢 The 7DMA of daily testing has been one of the highest this week, yet we see a climbing TPR.
4/5
At this stage, the rate of spread of infection across multiple states is faster than the rate of growth of testing or even the rate at which we can add physical infrastructure.
This calls for a multi-pronged approach beyond test-trace-treat.
5/5
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Why are we advised to maintain 6 feet distance for safety? Is there a chance to catch Covid19 even if one is more than 6ft away from an infected person? Why is wearing masks critical?
We explore these questions in this short thread.
1/n
There are 4 main modes of transmission of respiratory viruses:
✅ Contact: Spread through direct contact with an infected person.
✅ Formite: Spread through touching surfaces/objects that carry the virus.
✅ Droplet: Spread through larger droplets exhaled by the person.
2/n
✅ Airborne: Spread through smaller droplets that remain suspended in the air over longer distances.
📌 Why 6ft distance?
Respiratory 'droplets' are larger particles that contain the virus. Droplet transmission happens in close proximity, generally within about 6ft.
3/n
Our data team has been hustling on the vaccination data side. Some challenges we've been grappling with:
✅ Multiple data sources - (a) MoHFW/PIB and (b) CoWIN APIs. Primary source?
✅ Data differences between the 2 sources.
So, we have some updates. Read on 👇
1/4
✅ We are tracking CoWIN and MoHFW/PIB updates separately now.
✅ CoWIN data, though behind MoHFW numbers, gives us a richer set of data points to track.
📣 In a significant development, we are now tracking DISTRICT VACCINATION data.
Source - CoWIN APIs.
2/4
MH reported 25.8k new persons with Covid19 today. Highest daily count for the state yet, surpassing 24.8k recorded on 11/09/2020.
How are the 2 spikes different? Few quick points:
➡️ More rapid rise in cases: In Sept. last year, it took a month to double the 7DMA from....
1/5
....10.5k cases/day to a 7DMA of 21k cases/day on 11th September.
Now, it has taken just 12 days for the 7DMA to double from 8k cases/day to 16k cases/day on 17th March.
The 7 day moving avg. graph of MH shows the steep slope for current spike. 👇
2/5
➡️ Larger spike in certain districts: There are a number of districts that are seeing a stronger wave this time than in September last year.
Aurangabad, Akola, Amravati, Buldhana, Nagpur, Nanded, Nashik, Parbhani, Wardha, Washim, Yavatmal: Current case load > Sept. 2020.
As we see an upward trend in cases, it's important to realise that we are seeing the natural course of the pandemic playing out.
➡️ Latest sero survey showed that a large % of us were still uninfected.
➡️ We've seen large social gatherings with most restrictions lifted.
1/6
➡️ Increased mobility across states, including crowded public transport.
➡️ New variants and possibility of waning antibodies.
➡️ Unfortunate non compliance to safety norms.
📣 It was only a matter of time that all these factors came together to result in another spike.
2/6
This time around, we have no national lockdown, rather we have activities back to 100% normalcy in most sectors and regions. This means that arresting the spread will be more challenging.
What can be done?
✅ One key study on the dynamics of transmission
3/6
Encouraging news from #covaxin Phase 3, 1st interim analysis:
✅ Estimated efficacy of 80.6%.
Efficacy based on first 43 cases amongst the 25.8k trial participants. 36/43 in placebo group and 7 in vaccine group = 80.6% estimated efficacy.
1/3
Note that as per initial P3 trial design, 130 +ve cases is the target to analyze final P3 efficacy. Interim efficacy was to be analysed at 43 and 87 cases. So, be aware that this is the first milestone (43 cases) and efficacy can change over the course of trial.
2/3
We will have to see the detailed paper on these results to flag any exclusions etc.
Nevertheless, this should bolster public confidence, especially at a time when larger groups are being vaccinated.
3/3
A wonderful compilation of vaccination experience shared by our readers across different cities.
It's a diverse set - some fully through Co-WIN, some walk-in, some Co-WIN + walk in etc.
Different locations have different ways of making it work.
Catch the thread below 👇
1/n
Bengaluru:
My mother was the 1st person to be vaccinated in KA. We registered sharp at 9AM got the appointment and went and got vaccinated at 12 noon after inauguration. It's important to repeatedly try as server is loaded some of my relatives got appt after multiple tries.
2/n
Faridabad, Haryana:
Yes parents did it today at a private hospital. It was walk-in and took less than 30mins, was seamless process very well managed.
3/n