Thread by @ClimateAudit

as relentlessly partisan Ontario spew hate at Ontario government, let's re-examine actual results vs Science Table projections of Dec 20, 2020 at start of winter. They projected 7500-30000 cases by late January and increasing exponentially.

https://twitter.com/TorontoStar/status/1383449793821769728

Looking back at dire projections of Dec 20, 2020, if Science Table would surely have said that our ultimate actuals were a hugely optimistic projection. And that reaching such an optimistic projection would be an accomplishment.

between December and now, Science Table has re-jigged the scale of their graphics so that the recent case increase looks much bigger than it appears against their original Dec 2020 projections which launched the present lockdown.

Science Table in their December 2020 briefing which led to original lockdown order described France as example of hard lockdown success in reducing COVID cases. (Also Australia, which is both isolated and not in window. Ontario did well last summer.)

so how did Science Table's exemplar, France, do subsequently? Since SciTable's Dec 20 briefing, French cases have increased steadily, almost tripling.

So how has Ontario done relative to France - SciTable's supposed example to Ford govt?

in mid-December, Ontario and French new cases (standardized to 1 million) were similar. Subsequently, French cases have incrased and are now approximately double Ontario cases. Ontario did MUCH better than SciTable's France.

on Jan 12, 2021, when federal vaccine supply projections were already published, Science Table projected deaths of ~100 daily in March and April, with 95% confidence interval of 40-195. Actuals far below even most optimistic projection.

how can any objective analyst spew venom at Ontario govt for out-performing even the most optimistic Science Table January projection? Fisman, Stall et al should be giving some credit where credit is due, instead of perpetual hate.

comparison of Ontario cases to US states, standardized for population (approximate red-blue). Ontario is very urbanized and would be 5th largest population US state. It did better than every US state except Hawaii and MUCH better than large-pop US states.

Yet WaPo dumps on Ford

similar comparison of Ontario cases to EU+UK cases, standardized for population. Ontario did better and generally MUCH better than every Euro nation except Finland.

Yet Washington Post believes that Ford (governor equivalent) should resign. C'mon.

better version of Ontario vs US states.