as relentlessly partisan Ontario spew hate at Ontario government, let's re-examine actual results vs Science Table projections of Dec 20, 2020 at start of winter. They projected 7500-30000 cases by late January and increasing exponentially.
Looking back at dire projections of Dec 20, 2020, if Science Table would surely have said that our ultimate actuals were a hugely optimistic projection. And that reaching such an optimistic projection would be an accomplishment.
between December and now, Science Table has re-jigged the scale of their graphics so that the recent case increase looks much bigger than it appears against their original Dec 2020 projections which launched the present lockdown.
Science Table in their December 2020 briefing which led to original lockdown order described France as example of hard lockdown success in reducing COVID cases. (Also Australia, which is both isolated and not in window. Ontario did well last summer.)
so how did Science Table's exemplar, France, do subsequently? Since SciTable's Dec 20 briefing, French cases have increased steadily, almost tripling.

So how has Ontario done relative to France - SciTable's supposed example to Ford govt?
in mid-December, Ontario and French new cases (standardized to 1 million) were similar. Subsequently, French cases have incrased and are now approximately double Ontario cases. Ontario did MUCH better than SciTable's France.
on Jan 12, 2021, when federal vaccine supply projections were already published, Science Table projected deaths of ~100 daily in March and April, with 95% confidence interval of 40-195. Actuals far below even most optimistic projection.
how can any objective analyst spew venom at Ontario govt for out-performing even the most optimistic Science Table January projection? Fisman, Stall et al should be giving some credit where credit is due, instead of perpetual hate.
comparison of Ontario cases to US states, standardized for population (approximate red-blue). Ontario is very urbanized and would be 5th largest population US state. It did better than every US state except Hawaii and MUCH better than large-pop US states.

Yet WaPo dumps on Ford
similar comparison of Ontario cases to EU+UK cases, standardized for population. Ontario did better and generally MUCH better than every Euro nation except Finland.

Yet Washington Post believes that Ford (governor equivalent) should resign. C'mon.
better version of Ontario vs US states.

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More from @ClimateAudit

19 Apr
Ontario did much better on COVID cases and deaths than ANY lower 48 US state and, AFAIK, any European nation, despite Canada getting vaccines late due to federal govt, not Ontario. Ford has handled crisis with dignity and deserves credit, not blame.
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
2/ to show just how well Ontario has actually done, here are charts comparing daily New Cases and Deaths for Ontario relative to neighboring Michigan, Florida and, in Europe, France. Ontario has done much better. Similar with every other jurisdiction in lower 48 US and Europe.
3/ Ontario science advisory panel projected 100 deaths per day in March-April. Actual results are far lower than even the most optimistic projections, much better even than 97.5% percentile optimistic. Yet partisan Ontario media fails to credit Ford for this accomplishment.
Read 5 tweets
15 Apr
an excellent response to partisan and almost entirely unfounded criticism of Ontario vaccination program by prominent commenters @DFisman of U of Toronto, @NathanStall and Toronto Star. They whinge about "freezers" and supposedly chaotic vaccine distribution, fomenting hate.
2/ turns out that the slow-moving inventory, about which Fisman, Stall and TorStar whinge, is AstraZeneca, about which segments of medical community itself, in particular, regulators, have fomented doubt.
3/ turns out we have no Pfizer inventory other than that required to convert one weekly delivery into daily clinics. And that Moderna shipments erratic. We recently ran out.
Read 4 tweets
3 Apr
Toronto has MLB team. In Canada, there are no mail-in ballots or ballot harvesting. Nearly all votes on one day, in person with ID. Votes are counted in front of scrutineers from each(all) parties. Does new MLB policy prevent Toronto from hosting future all-star game?
if Canada is required to allow US-style ballot harvesting and non-ID mail-in ballots in order to host a future all-star game, then count me out.
to be more precise, Canada does permit residents to apply for absentee ballots and submit such ballots by mail under restricted circumstances. Percentage is small. We do not have mass mailings of ballots to voter list or abuse of absentee ballots.
Read 18 tweets
29 Mar
@realexmaple @FOOL_NELSON @shipwreckedcrew @wakeywakey16 @Guccifer2Henry re-reading the EC, I agree that base case should be that this paragraph relies on earlier Australian reporting, not on Pass The Telephone at Legat or Dibble stage.
@realexmaple @FOOL_NELSON @shipwreckedcrew @wakeywakey16 @Guccifer2Henry So it's probably not a 4-stage Pass The Telephone problem. However, Papadopoulos' ravings and whispering are easy enough to misunderstand under the best of circumstances, let alone when he was getting drunk with Erika. ( Base case is May 6 with Erika, not May 10 with Downer)
@realexmaple @FOOL_NELSON @shipwreckedcrew @wakeywakey16 @Guccifer2Henry Consider the problems that arise with FBI 302s under relatively controlled circumstances. Erika wasn't taking notes; there was no transcript or recording. What are the chances that Erika mischaracterized Papadopoulos' nonsense in earliest report? Pretty high.
Read 5 tweets
29 Mar
@FOOL_NELSON @shipwreckedcrew re Downer's evidence. The FBI EC opening Crossfire refers to Downer saying that Papadopoulos mentioned a "Russian offer to assist". In his public interviews, Downer has never mentioned or referred to this supposed "Russian offer". He evaded comment when asked directly on twitter
@FOOL_NELSON @shipwreckedcrew 2/ I think that there's a real and serious possibility that the language "Russian offer to assist" was an embellishment added somewhere in transmission from Erika to Downer to Dibble to Legat Boetig to FBI headquarters. Pass The Telephone.
@FOOL_NELSON @shipwreckedcrew 3/ all we've seen is the 4th or 5th hand EC.

Strzok and Pientka interviewed Downer and Thompson on Aug 2, but their 302/memorandum on interview remains concealed. Strzok spoke publicly on this interview last fall, but unfortunately his most explosive statement about interview
Read 4 tweets
14 Mar
@Wilkmaster @15poundstogo actually, I don't think that it was Jake Sullivan who was hacked anyway. It was someone who was copied on the email between Jake and Huma.
@Wilkmaster @15poundstogo What caught my eye about this was that it doesn't seem to have been released during the campaign. One would have thought that showing an email hack involving Huma Abedin in Sep 2016 would have been a notable scalp for DCLeaks and worth announcing.
@Wilkmaster @15poundstogo my puzzle arises precisely because this wasn't published. It seems to have been in a password-protected section of DCLeaks, (partial) contents of which were vacuumed up by Wayback.
Read 4 tweets

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