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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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19 Apr, 4 tweets, 2 min read
India day after day huge increases: 160,694; 185,248; 199,569; 216,850; 233,943; 260,778; Today 275,306. Urgency of actions to stop it is apparent.

1/
Fire plot shows there are states that could be green zones even now.

Strongly suppress where it is, protect where it isn't, contract geographically.

2/
Thailand has a new outbreak with daily cases: 985; 965; 1,335; 1,543; 1,585; 1,547; today 1,767

Past three days at about 1,550 gives some hope it will be under control soon, despite increase today. Next few days we will find out.

3/
Globally the 7 day average reached a new maximum of over 752,000, the previous peak of over 746,000 was in January.

4/

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
19 Apr
How can airlines claim flights are safe when there is no record of who was infected on board.
"There is a new record for the number of coronavirus infections traced back to a single commercial airline flight. A whopping 47 passengers..from New Delhi to Hong Kong April 4 have since tested positive for Covid-19. That number represents 25% of the 188 passengers on board.

1/
"All passengers..had tested negative for the virus within 72 hours prior to departure, in keeping with Hong Kong’s travel requirements. Yet 25 travelers tested positive immediately after landing in Hong Kong, and a further 22 cases were discovered on day 12.

2/
Read 7 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
19 Apr
Canada’s Crazy Pandemic Response
"As the third wave built and now may drown us, our leaders keep blathering about ‘balance.’

"If you want to know how crazy the COVID-19 crisis has become in Canada, just listen for a moment..

@TheTyee thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/…
"to Quebec Premier Francois Legault.

“We’ve had no choice but to lock down, reopen, lock down, reopen,” protested the premier last week as he acknowledged how fed up people are with Canada’s disastrous yo-yo approach to COVID-19.

2/
“The idea is to try to find a balance,” added Legault. “When we lock down, it’s to protect people’s physical health; when we reopen, it’s to help their mental health.”

3/
Read 7 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
18 Apr
More clarity on breakthrough infections (people who get infected after having been vaccinated) is available. CDC data shows that of these breakthrough infections, 7% were known to be hospitalized and 1% died.

1/
nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavir…
In other words, according to this data, when someone does get a breakthrough infection, they have a similar chance of death as someone who got infected without being vaccinated. (Of course, vaccination does a lot to prevent infection in the first place.)

2/
The effect of variants? "Some of the breakthrough infections are thought to stem from certain strains of the virus that may be more resistant to vaccines, experts say. They also say some highly contagious variants may pose a greater risk of reinfection from other variants"

3/
Read 7 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
16 Apr
Iran: Middle East's hardest-hit country Thursday reported 321 new deaths, 25,078 new cases. Widespread travel, weddings, celebrations during Iranian New Year starting March 20 cause surge in cases and deaths. Will be worse in upcoming weeks.

1/
reuters.com/world/middle-e…
Sweden: Ongoing failure

Highest European cases past week per capita: 625 new infections per million, 7-day average.

Compare 521 in Poland, 491 in France, 430 in the Netherlands, 237 in Italy, 208 in Germany.

Other Scandinavian countries much lower

2/
theguardian.com/world/2021/apr…
UK: Over the last seven days cases declined almost 7% compared with a week earlier. However, since Wednesday cases have increased somewhat.

reuters.com/world/uk/uk-re…
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
16 Apr
Some steps taken today toward stronger action in Ontario.

Still needed:
1. Paid sick leave and financial support for those who have lost income as well as enforcement of stay at home measures

1/
cp24.com/news/ontario-t…
2. Internal province travel guidelines as well as inter-province travel restrictions
3. Free isolation and quarantine for people who are sick to protect family members and housemates

2/
4. Essential services with much better protection of workers and customers.
5. Better allocation of vaccination to prevent transmission

3/
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
15 Apr
With the growing power of mass vaccination to reduce transmission, but with vaccine hesitancy and the threat of vaccine evading variants, we should consider mix and match elimination strategies:

1/
What strategies might work combining mass vaccination, mass testing, mass high quality masking, and stay at home restrictions, to achieve local elimination?

2/
Green zones continue to be the way to open up without restrictions, avoiding outbreaks of breakthrough variants. What level of border control or travel restrictions are needed depends on other ongoing precautions and vigilance.

3/
Read 4 tweets

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