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16 Apr, 4 tweets, 3 min read
Iran: Middle East's hardest-hit country Thursday reported 321 new deaths, 25,078 new cases. Widespread travel, weddings, celebrations during Iranian New Year starting March 20 cause surge in cases and deaths. Will be worse in upcoming weeks.

1/
reuters.com/world/middle-e…
Sweden: Ongoing failure

Highest European cases past week per capita: 625 new infections per million, 7-day average.

Compare 521 in Poland, 491 in France, 430 in the Netherlands, 237 in Italy, 208 in Germany.

Other Scandinavian countries much lower

2/
theguardian.com/world/2021/apr…
UK: Over the last seven days cases declined almost 7% compared with a week earlier. However, since Wednesday cases have increased somewhat.

reuters.com/world/uk/uk-re…
CDC reports about 5,800 people who have been vaccinated against coronavirus have become infected. 396 -- 7% -- of those who got infected required hospitalization and 74 people died.

Number of fully vaccinated is almost 77M.

ctvnews.ca/health/coronav…

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
18 Apr
More clarity on breakthrough infections (people who get infected after having been vaccinated) is available. CDC data shows that of these breakthrough infections, 7% were known to be hospitalized and 1% died.

1/
nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavir…
In other words, according to this data, when someone does get a breakthrough infection, they have a similar chance of death as someone who got infected without being vaccinated. (Of course, vaccination does a lot to prevent infection in the first place.)

2/
The effect of variants? "Some of the breakthrough infections are thought to stem from certain strains of the virus that may be more resistant to vaccines, experts say. They also say some highly contagious variants may pose a greater risk of reinfection from other variants"

3/
Read 6 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
16 Apr
Some steps taken today toward stronger action in Ontario.

Still needed:
1. Paid sick leave and financial support for those who have lost income as well as enforcement of stay at home measures

1/
cp24.com/news/ontario-t…
2. Internal province travel guidelines as well as inter-province travel restrictions
3. Free isolation and quarantine for people who are sick to protect family members and housemates

2/
4. Essential services with much better protection of workers and customers.
5. Better allocation of vaccination to prevent transmission

3/
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
15 Apr
With the growing power of mass vaccination to reduce transmission, but with vaccine hesitancy and the threat of vaccine evading variants, we should consider mix and match elimination strategies:

1/
What strategies might work combining mass vaccination, mass testing, mass high quality masking, and stay at home restrictions, to achieve local elimination?

2/
Green zones continue to be the way to open up without restrictions, avoiding outbreaks of breakthrough variants. What level of border control or travel restrictions are needed depends on other ongoing precautions and vigilance.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
14 Apr
India, despite success earlier with reducing cases, is now seeing by far the highest levels of transmission from the entire pandemic. New cases reached 199,569 today.

Figures are from yesterday.

Note: No magic stops the pandemic.

1/
Brazil with the P.1 variant out of control continues to at or near all-time highs of Covid deaths.

2/
Argentina has all-time high infections, though death rates are not (yet) at record highs. For such rapid increases in cases, the associated deaths will not occur for a few weeks.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
11 Apr
Now for the kicker on Evidence Based Science: New variant is here, all of the existing evidence is worthless, obsolete.

What you gonna do? Start all over again? Or make incorrect assumption of independence from the change (not evidence based!).

1/
Key the pseudo scientific speculation.

Here is a paper explaining this

Limits to phenomenology.

necsi.edu/the-limits-of-…

2/
What is the alternative? Complexity science of multiscale representations.

Use empirical observations as tests of representations.

This is the scientific method that includes the relationship between empirical and theoretical frameworks.

3/
necsi.edu/why-complexity…
Read 7 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
9 Apr
Good news: Cases going down again in Netherlands after peak April 1

Bad: Caught in half way yoyo lockdowns.

Travel bans for South Africa, Central and South America Negative PCR test and 10 day self-quarantine for others.

Why not do it all the way.

1/
government.nl/topics/coronav…
Massachusetts:

Premature school opening increases cases in under age 19 year olds.

Some "officials" trying to make excuses, but transmission in school is real, so is long covid in kids.

2/
patch.com/massachusetts/…
Oceania has done much better than other continents. Cases now growing fast in Asia (see India), deaths in Asia and Latin America.

edition.cnn.com/interactive/20…

3/
Read 5 tweets

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