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Monica Gandhi MD, MPH Profile picture
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20 Apr, 6 tweets, 3 min read
Will we be able to achieve herd immunity and at what level vaccination? I believe we will but I don't know at what % vaccination though I suspect it could be 65-70%. Why?
1) Achieving herd immunity with a vaccine is dependent on its effectiveness; the mRNA vaccines are more
effective than we dared hope with 100% efficacy at 6 months per Pfizer data and amazing CDC breakthrough data showing (with ongoing cases), of 77 million fully vaccinated against COVID-19, ~5,800 infections (0.008%) – 0.005% symptomatic (29% asymptomatic)
pfizer.com/news/press-rel…
2) Study from Israel shows children do not need to be vaccinated to massively reduce transmission in this group. Just vaccinating adults >16 years brings down infections among children substantially (every 20 point increase adults; halves in children)
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
3) Dare I say we are finished with question that variants won't be covered by vaccines? I hope so; no one wants me to tweet about number of epitopes CD8 and CD4 cover across spike protein again or at least not for while
huffpost.com/entry/covid-19…
4) Israel at 60% 1st dose (UK at 50% 1st dose) and opening up more and more but cases remaining flat so far. Want to see as "system stressed" (e.g. opening up more and more, including to tourism) and vaccinations continue to increase do cases stay flat?
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
@USATODAY says we may never get to herd immunity due to vax hesitation. I think we will (I am perky one at end). But key line relevant to defanging the virus: Doesn't matter "if virus is transmitted in the population if it’s not causing serious problems"
usatoday.com/story/news/hea…

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Monica Gandhi MD, MPH Profile picture
21 Apr
Want to talk about INFLECTION POINT and how it looks like we have reached this in our country with hospitalizations at this vaccination rate & also turning the corner in Michigan. We discussed this first with Israel & I think "inflection point" with both hospitalizations & cases
will be different by country/state/region depending on degree of natural immunity there. This article in Nature from early on in the Israel roll-out: "You need to vaccinate much >1/3 of the population to really see a reduction in transmission", how much
nature.com/articles/d4158…
more probably depends on 1) natural immunity (surges before (CA has 38% of its population exposed); 2) degree of lockdown as you are vaccinating (UK more; Israel less; places in US variable); 3) maybe even what vaccine (?India). Paper from Israel (Fig)
nature.com/articles/s4157…
Read 14 tweets
Monica Gandhi MD, MPH Profile picture
20 Apr
This is true but I am VERY worried about India right now. My understanding is that vaccine capacity is not maximal because more raw materials are needed. India has called on the Biden Administration (ASlavitt) for help. Masks/distancing as much as possible in crowded conditions.
India has Covishield (AZ vaccine) + Covaxin (Bharat Pharm). I see from phase I/II trial of the Covaxin vaccine that cell-mediated responses were generated (although used IFN-gamma assay that Sputnik V used in their paper instead of direct measurement).
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
However, reason worried about Covaxin is that we have not seen phase 3 clinical trial results yet except in press release; would love to see peer reviewed publication (does anyone know status?). Covaxin is a whole inactivated viral vaccine like Sinovac
economist.com/graphic-detail…
Read 7 tweets
Monica Gandhi MD, MPH Profile picture
19 Apr
@DLeonhardt article today NYT illustrates what @drlucymcbride, I & so many others discussing: a fear of normal or even following simple March 8 CDC guidelines that vaccinated people can get together without masks/distancing due to irrational fear.
nytimes.com/2021/04/19/bri…
"Fortunately, [fear] also curable. The vaccines have nearly eliminated death, hospitalization and other serious Covid illness among people who [got] shots. .vaccines have also radically reduced chances that people contract even a mild version of Covid or can pass it on to others"
Even acclaimed experts like @ashishjha realized how "awesome" it was to meet friend for drink unmasked 2 months (!) after his last shot. My advice for society on this as MD who talks to patients about irrational fear all time?
1) Leaders like President Biden? Model behavior like
Read 7 tweets
Monica Gandhi MD, MPH Profile picture
19 Apr
Breakthrough infections by CDC. If we take out 29% of the 5814 who were asymptomatic, the rate of breakthrough infection is actually 0.00005 (or 0.005%). That is amazing! I took out asymptomatic infection because those actually show vax works: IgA in nose
cdc.gov/vaccines/covid…
limits replication & keeps viral load low so can't transmit (multiple articles below). For instance careful contact tracing of 39 breakthrough infections in Sonoma County last week showed no transmission!
nature.com/articles/s4159…
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar…
And please remember that is vaccine effectiveness (how do they work in real world?) under "stress conditions": we still have high cases in some areas, variable mask wearing, people have to work, etc. So should see very little breakthrough (with symptoms) in places with low cases
Read 4 tweets
Monica Gandhi MD, MPH Profile picture
18 Apr
How is US doing? 44 states doing well. In HHS/CDC/ASPR Report, 6 States have almost 50% of Confirmed COVID-19 Admissions in the last 7 days; these states represent 26% of the U.S. Population (MI, NY, FL, PA, NJ, IL). Reason such a mix of caution/optimism on the news.
Most of this still in Michigan although they have now reached peak hospitalizations and are coming down. Less natural immunity, B117 (but not all explained by that, see thread yesterday), seasonality?, vax rate slow in some counties esp at first
clickondetroit.com/news/local/202…
NY, NJ, PA: didn't vaccinate seniors (in SNFs) as fast as other states. So remaining 44 states + DC + the territories (74% of pop), have hospitalization rate of 8.5 per 100K overall (much less than 20-40K of flu) and approaching 5/100K in article washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/0…
Read 5 tweets
Monica Gandhi MD, MPH Profile picture
18 Apr
I really admire especially my local paper's dogged determination to help open schools given the impacts of school closures on child mental & physical health. However, would argue with @drlucymcbride that we need a @factsnotfear approach to our reporting
sfchronicle.com/opinion/editor…
if we really want parents/teachers/students to feel safe about school openings. Examples of #factsnotfear reports are 1) explain to public what the vax effectiveness data is showing us in real-world: vax incredibly effective under stress of surges, differential mask wearing etc.
Very difficult to get or give #covid19 after vaccine. So, also explain to public all the accumulating data that vaccines massively reduce transmission. Cover the multiple papers which show this & discuss how IgA (mucosal antibody) generated by vax protect from nasal infection
Read 12 tweets

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