In 91 days, we are 99.71% of the way to President Biden's goal of 200 million shots in 100 days. We can expect to formally meet this goal tomorrow. #VaccinateAmerica
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As the U.S. continues through its first week of vaccine open season, many Americans are understandably very frustrated with not having open appointments near them (as seen in many of the darker states here). This is actually a good thing — it means demand is high. Quick thread:
Vaccines are allocated from the federal government proportionally based on population — while there are reasonable arguments to switch to a demand-based system this is the system we currently have. Thus, for reasons discussed here, states vary.
As seen in the two maps on the right, counties that have higher estimated hesitancy are more likely to have open pharmacy appointments. We need to increase outreach and outreach to give these residents a chance. public.tableau.com/profile/benjam…
The U.S. needs a vaccination rejuvenation. As @jenkatesdc, @joshmich and @larry_levitt estimate, it will only be a few weeks before all adults enthusiastic about getting a vaccine will have already received one. Let's look at the data and make suggestions: kff.org/policy-watch/s…
Great thread here on the "vaccine enthusiasm frontier" or "vaccine wall" and how it will vary widely based on geography. As seen from vaccinespotter.org data, pharmacies in many U.S. counties are seeing a proliferation of open appointments.
So why does it appear that the vaccination campaign is losing momentum? One of the major reasons is that the J&J vaccine, which has been paused, accounted for ~400,000 doses a day at its peak. As @juliettekayyem notes, we all expected this wall.
A few weeks ago, we examined Florida's rising cases, especially among young people in a largely unvaccinated population. Quick thread on most recent trends:
1. Cases continue to grow in almost all of the age groups. Particularly concerning spikes are in 5-14 year olds (orange), 15-24 (yellow) and 25-34 (green). 55-64 cases are also quite high, which could be a result of slow vaccination in those age bands.
2. Cases in those 75+ now represent a small portion of total cases. 79.9% of Florida's seniors (65+) have received at least once dose.
In many places, America's vaccine supply problem has now morphed into a demand one. Some states now have thousands of doses and appointments and few people willing to take them, hindering the nation's progress to herd immunity. Thread/thoughts on the data: nytimes.com/2021/04/09/hea…
The key metric we are monitoring here is the gap between doses distributed and administered (the "gap") — it's easy to find in CDC data. Acknowledging there may be data lags, darker states are seeing a bigger gap, pointing to delivery issues or hesitancy.
Let's take a look at Massachusetts and Mississippi. While the gap is increasing in all states, possibly pointing to the need for states' delivery systems to catch up, Mississippi's gap continues to increase since opening eligibility.