The U.S. needs a vaccination rejuvenation. As @jenkatesdc, @joshmich and @larry_levitt estimate, it will only be a few weeks before all adults enthusiastic about getting a vaccine will have already received one. Let's look at the data and make suggestions: kff.org/policy-watch/s…
Great thread here on the "vaccine enthusiasm frontier" or "vaccine wall" and how it will vary widely based on geography. As seen from vaccinespotter.org data, pharmacies in many U.S. counties are seeing a proliferation of open appointments.
So why does it appear that the vaccination campaign is losing momentum? One of the major reasons is that the J&J vaccine, which has been paused, accounted for ~400,000 doses a day at its peak. As @juliettekayyem notes, we all expected this wall.
The good news: Polling data show that Americans are aware of the pause and believe it is the right decision. axios.com/axios-ipsos-po…
As @celinegounder points out, vaccine confidence remains high in certain groups but some Trump voters are now less likely to get a vaccine after the J&J pause.
The survey from @deBeaumontFndtn and @FrankLuntz found that 76% percent said the J&J pause does not decrease their likelihood of getting vaccinated and 87% of those who have been vaccinated said they would “definitely” make that same decision again. debeaumont.org/changing-the-c…
We will await the decision from ACIP on the J&J vaccine this Friday. If the pause is lifted, we must continue administering immediately. The one-and-done appeal of the vaccine has not waned too much.
Let's focus on two groups from a recent NPR/Marist poll in March: Younger Americans and Trump voters. There are vastly different strategies to reach both of them.
First, younger Americans. We need to reach people where they are the most, and for many younger Americans that is the workplace. I applaud the Biden administration's push today to employers to allow paid time to receive the vaccine. nytimes.com/2021/04/21/us/…
Next, Trump voters. The latest focus group from @FrankLuntz found some key messages:
- Stop talking about the possibility of coronavirus booster shots
- Don’t bully people who are vaccine holdouts
- Show us anyone besides Dr. Fauci washingtonpost.com/health/2021/04…
Additionally, members of the focus group have been frustrated with conflicting information between CNN and Fox News. So @TuckerCarlson, if you're reading this, your nightly vaccine rants will literally cost lives.
So what do we need to do? We need a course correction. In many places we now have enough supply to spread it out in as many locations as possible. Supermarkets, testing sites — vaccine locations should be everywhere. No counties should be turning down. apnews.com/article/kansas…
We need to greatly enhance the number of walk-in appointments. In pharmacies which have an abundance of open appointments (shown in green here), a portion should be dedicated to walk-ins. We now have enough supply that we can make these bold choices. Pop-up clinics everywhere.
Finally, equity needs to remain at the forefront. Racial disparities still persist, according to the latest data. kff.org/coronavirus-co…
The next few weeks are critical to readjusting demand channels and increasing daily output. We need to flood the country with vaccines. Once those who are hesitant see how easy and accessible it is to get a vaccine, they'll be more likely to take it. #WeCanDoThis
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As the U.S. continues through its first week of vaccine open season, many Americans are understandably very frustrated with not having open appointments near them (as seen in many of the darker states here). This is actually a good thing — it means demand is high. Quick thread:
Vaccines are allocated from the federal government proportionally based on population — while there are reasonable arguments to switch to a demand-based system this is the system we currently have. Thus, for reasons discussed here, states vary.
As seen in the two maps on the right, counties that have higher estimated hesitancy are more likely to have open pharmacy appointments. We need to increase outreach and outreach to give these residents a chance. public.tableau.com/profile/benjam…
A few weeks ago, we examined Florida's rising cases, especially among young people in a largely unvaccinated population. Quick thread on most recent trends:
1. Cases continue to grow in almost all of the age groups. Particularly concerning spikes are in 5-14 year olds (orange), 15-24 (yellow) and 25-34 (green). 55-64 cases are also quite high, which could be a result of slow vaccination in those age bands.
2. Cases in those 75+ now represent a small portion of total cases. 79.9% of Florida's seniors (65+) have received at least once dose.
In many places, America's vaccine supply problem has now morphed into a demand one. Some states now have thousands of doses and appointments and few people willing to take them, hindering the nation's progress to herd immunity. Thread/thoughts on the data: nytimes.com/2021/04/09/hea…
The key metric we are monitoring here is the gap between doses distributed and administered (the "gap") — it's easy to find in CDC data. Acknowledging there may be data lags, darker states are seeing a bigger gap, pointing to delivery issues or hesitancy.
Let's take a look at Massachusetts and Mississippi. While the gap is increasing in all states, possibly pointing to the need for states' delivery systems to catch up, Mississippi's gap continues to increase since opening eligibility.