Has something remotely similar to COVID-19 occurred before?
Let’s try to take a journey to a bygone era and learn what has come before us and if we have lessons to learn?
Let’s try to take a journey to a bygone era and learn what has come before us and if we have lessons to learn?
The 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic :
In summer of 1918 a Respiratory virus jumps from animals to humans (we dont know the animal) and killed between 50-100 million people (2.5-5% of total world population of 1.8 billion).
Was it in waves too?
In summer of 1918 a Respiratory virus jumps from animals to humans (we dont know the animal) and killed between 50-100 million people (2.5-5% of total world population of 1.8 billion).
Was it in waves too?
Three waves:
1. Mild: spring of 1918 and did not spread worldwide
2. Second: killed ⅔ of those people in about 14 weeks from late September through December 1918
3. A Third wave hit in February 1919 and lasted through the spring of 1919
1. Mild: spring of 1918 and did not spread worldwide
2. Second: killed ⅔ of those people in about 14 weeks from late September through December 1918
3. A Third wave hit in February 1919 and lasted through the spring of 1919
Exposure to the first wave was protective against the second wave but was there any event that lead to a bigger second wave?
Yes World War 1. The spread would have happened anyway but it accelerated it.
Yes World War 1. The spread would have happened anyway but it accelerated it.
What about the Third wave?
this wave was very lethal but not quite to the severity of the second wave.
But why?
this wave was very lethal but not quite to the severity of the second wave.
But why?
because the virus mutated so much that neither exposure to the first nor second wave seemed to protect against the third wave. (Google : Antigenic Drift)
Can this happen this time too as we have vaccines?
Possibility can't be denied as it depends on mutations the virus undergoes
Can this happen this time too as we have vaccines?
Possibility can't be denied as it depends on mutations the virus undergoes
has any other deadly pandemic occurred apart from Spanish Flu too?
In terms of proportion of the population who were killed, the "bubonic plague" of the 14th century is the deadliest pandemic aka “Black Death”.
All this seems so deja vu?
In terms of proportion of the population who were killed, the "bubonic plague" of the 14th century is the deadliest pandemic aka “Black Death”.
All this seems so deja vu?
The 1918 virus,(like coronavirus), but unlike most influenza viruses, could bind to cells in the upper respiratory tract which made it easily transmissible.
Did people die in India too?
Did people die in India too?
20-30 million people died in India. One of the thought out reason is that perhaps the Indians weren’t exposed to the first wave. This can also help us understand why deaths in this second wave of C-19 have grown manifold in rural India.
What about the leadership and polity
Acc to John Barry, an authority on this subject government was bent upon controlling the narrative (to keep up the morale around WWI) but the way this was handled became one of the major factor in the high death toll.
Acc to John Barry, an authority on this subject government was bent upon controlling the narrative (to keep up the morale around WWI) but the way this was handled became one of the major factor in the high death toll.
In Sept 1918 govt put put a parade “Liberty Loan Parade” to gather funds for the war effort in Philadephia where the 2nd wave had already established itself. Despite requests from the medical fraternity the parade was carried out.
What happened then?
(en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philadelp… )
What happened then?
(en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philadelp… )
Within 72 hours the influenza had exploded in Philadelphia killing 4,500 people in 3 weeks.
Even as schools were being shut, public gathering being banned, the local papers were saying this is “not a public health measure” despite people and family members dying all around them.
Even as schools were being shut, public gathering being banned, the local papers were saying this is “not a public health measure” despite people and family members dying all around them.
Can good governance change the course?
*San Francisco had good data points.
*They had the most aggressive restrictions and compulsory masks in public.
*The difference here was that the administration was honest; the key to reduce fear and panic and to bring a community together.
*San Francisco had good data points.
*They had the most aggressive restrictions and compulsory masks in public.
*The difference here was that the administration was honest; the key to reduce fear and panic and to bring a community together.
On comparing with C-19?
*Main similarity*: Coronavirus, similar to 1918 flu, can bind directly to the cells in lungs as well as upper respiratory
*Main difference*: The incubation period.
This makes managing COVID a nightmare
* Influenza incubation is 2-4d
* SARS-CoV-2 is 5-6days
*Main similarity*: Coronavirus, similar to 1918 flu, can bind directly to the cells in lungs as well as upper respiratory
*Main difference*: The incubation period.
This makes managing COVID a nightmare
* Influenza incubation is 2-4d
* SARS-CoV-2 is 5-6days
The disease (COVID-19) takes longer to develop in the body and takes much longer to pass through
This results in the whole process being stretched out over a longer period of time compared to influenza.
This results in the whole process being stretched out over a longer period of time compared to influenza.
Any conclusions on Leadership amidst a pandemic?
John Barry mentions in his book that pandemics require a very good leadership and recommends that the spokesperson should have no political affiliation.
(Further readings: The Great Influence: By John Barry.)
John Barry mentions in his book that pandemics require a very good leadership and recommends that the spokesperson should have no political affiliation.
(Further readings: The Great Influence: By John Barry.)
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