1 Pres. Biden may recognize the destruction of the Ottoman Armenians in 1915 as the Armenian Genocide @john_Hudson, @JakesNYT report. It’s the right thing to do. It will start to bring solace and closure to Armenians whose grandparents died in 1915-16.
2 This could lead to new understanding and dialogue--or not. A thread on this (knowing well that it's far too deep an issue for social media.) Here is my interview to @JAMNewsCaucasus about Armenian-Turkish issues and recognition jam-news.net/armenia-turkey…
3 The first thing to say: the destruction and deportation of almost all the Ottoman Armenians in 1915-16 was acknowledged at the time as the biggest atrocity of WW1. There are thousands of memoirs about it. Here are just five powerful ones
fivebooks.com/best-books/mem…
4 Historians—Kevorkian, Bloxham Suny etc--have written comprehensive accounts of the massacres. Importantly, Turkish historians, such as Taner Akcam, are now some of the top scholars of this story. To be blunt, no real alternative scholarly “Turkish version” bears weight.
5 The issue of the memory, forgetting, recalling, denial, politics of the “Metz Yeghern” after 1915 is the subject of my book Great Catastrophe. Also how 30 years later Rafael Lemkin devised the term “genocide” in 1944 and this issue came to dominate.
global.oup.com/academic/produ…
6 Lemkin specifically referred to the slaughter of the Armenians as genocide. There is no real debate here. Yet the genocide focus is often too legal, not sufficiently human. Philosopher Marc Nichanian has written movingly how a legal focus “forbids mourning”
7 Jews do not talk about the Jewish Genocide. Maybe normalized use of the term “Armenian Genocide” can be a stepping stone to use of a phrase comparable with Shoah and Holocaust--perhaps “Metz Yeghern”-- that sums up the totality of the experience and memorializes it better.
8 As @philippesands has written brilliantly, the term “crimes against humanity” deserves wider use, not just "genocide." "Crimes against humanity" was a term coined by Amb. Henry Morgenthau in 1915 to refer to the Armenian massacres.
9 10-15 years ago the focus was all on how Turkish society was changing. April 24 was marked in Istanbul, there were conferences and books, Kurdish mayors put up memorials. In 2012 I was present at the deeply moving re-dedication of the Armenian church in Diyabarkir.
10 Hrant Dink the great Armenian-Turkish activist and writer, horribly assassinated in 2007, did more than anyone to begin this debate in Turkey. He said that Armenians and Turks still had an unhealthy dependency on affirmation of Great Powers, should talk to one another.
11 Back then I personally believed that US genocide recognition was far less important than democratizing Turkey. That phase is over sadly, there's a new rationale for calling a spade a spade. The progressive/Kurdish HDP party is persecuted and the nationalist MHP is in power.
12 This can be menacing. I hope the US government is preparing a strong response if in response to Biden the AKP/MHP takes retribution against the 100,000 or so Armenians in Istanbul or Armenian cultural monuments.
13 I also caution against making a read-across from 1915 to the ARM-AZ conflict of 2020. Obviously, ARM and AZ politicians instrumentalize the issue--that's not my point. I’m talking about the real history.
14 In 1915 Azerbaijan was in the Russian Empire and played no part in the killing. The Armenian-Azerbaijan war of 1918-20 was very different, both sides had equal agency. Azerbaijanis and Turks are different in key ways, the history of each with Armenians is very different.
15 Armenians now feel threatened by AZ and TR. But 2021 is not 1921, international norms which worked against Armenians on NK also protect the ROA. Aliev and Erdoğan are 21c autocrats, they are not Talaat Pasha. Judge events now and then on their own merits.
16 To return to the first point: If and when Biden makes his statement, it will tell those Armenians who lost grandparents that their loss is no longer denied. April 24, a day of mourning and remembrance will belong to them. Maybe after that other things can happen.

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More from @Tom_deWaal

2 Dec 20
1 Today is the 100th anniversary of December 2nd 1920, the day that marked the end of the independent 1st Republic of Armenia when its last government handed over power to the invading Bolshevik 11th Army. There are some interesting parallels between Armenia in 1920 and 2020...
2 In 1920 the republic's PM Simon Vratsian had been in power for just a week. He said Armenia was caught between “the Bolshevik hammer and the Turkish anvil.” It was facing defeat from a Turkish military advance, had just lost the cities of Kars and Alexandropol (Gyumri).
3 Western powers “merely talked about her fate.” See this passage from Firuz Kazemzadeh’s book. There were furious debates between Armenian maximalists, who claimed historic lands under the Treaty of Sevres + rejected compromise, and realists trying to accommodate with Turkey.
Read 9 tweets
18 Nov 20
1 President Putin gave some interesting answers to questions about Russia’s new role in the #Karabakh conflict. Suggests he was much more strongly involved than was visible during the conflict. Some takeaways: en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
2 Putin’s personal engagement. He says that he was engaged in intense telephone diplomacy with his Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts. Like it or not, the Russians (he, Lavrov, Medvedev) know the Karabakh brief in all its details. No Western leader would even come close.
3 He says that a truce was close on Oct 19-20 but Pashinyan rejected it as it entailed the return of Azerbaijanis to Shusha/i—presumably inside Armenian-controlled NK. Such a deal would have saved many lives, also been much better for Armenian side than the one of Nov. 10
Read 9 tweets
15 Nov 20
1 A THREAD about Kelbajar. Today was billed as a momentous day for Kelbajar region with Armenian forces scheduled to withdraw from lands they have held since April 1993 + control restored to Azerbaijan. However the timetable has been extended, perhaps to ease potential trouble
2 Personally I think of my friend photographer Khalid Asgarov from Kelbajar. I used several of his pictures in my book (where I spelled his name Halid Askerov.) He had come to rescue his father and was there as Armenians moved in. Here is a picture by Khalid of the mass flight.
3 In 2017 @bbcwitness interviewed Khalid. He tells the story of how the only escape route for thousands was by foot across the Murov Mountains. Livestock perished and people froze. Listen to the story of how he walked with his father for two days. bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0…
Read 14 tweets
9 Nov 20
1 Conflict continues deep inside #Karabakh. It seemed today that Shusha/i had fallen. Picture not fully clear.
Let me focus on the humanitarian situation in Karabakh. Yesterday I spoke to Artak Beglaryan, local human rights ombudsman. He said I could share the information.
2 Beglaryan told me the following: Bombardment continues. Thousands of civilians left Karabakh over the weekend for Armenia mainly women and children. They mainly left on the northern route, as the road through Lachin was too dangerous.
3 He estimates that 100,000 Karabakh Armenians have been displaced by the conflict, mainly to Armenia, but also within Karabakh itself. (That is probably more than two thirds of the local population.)
Read 9 tweets
8 Nov 20
6 Yet hard to predict a pause. Fighting continues on multiple fronts. Armenians say they cannot afford to lose Shusha/i. With more civilians removed from Stepanakert, Azerbaijani forces could attack the town even more intensely.
7 Also today, a leaked report of a purported Russian-Turkish peace plan offering a mixed PK operation (Russians on Arm. side, Turks on Az. side), Armenian withdrawal from occupied territories around NK, two corridors across Lachin and Meghri.
middleeasteye.net/news/nagorno-k…
8 Plan reported here has a Turkish spin, was rumoured in mid-October. Nothing here on the big issue, the status of NK itself. But one more sign that the “Basic Principles” framework is crumbling. Instead an "enforced peace" plan by latter-day authoritarian Sultan and Tsar.
Read 4 tweets
8 Nov 20
1 A fateful day in the #Karabakh conflict. Pres. Aliyev announced to his nation that the hilltop city of Shusha, the former main Azerbaijani town in the heart of Karabakh, had fallen. No visual evidence given. Armenians (who call the town Shushi) said fighting continued.
2 Still, Pres. Aliyev's speech sparked scenes of jubilation in Azerbaijan. Shusha has a huge meaning for Azerbaijanis and its loss in May 1992 to the Armenians was felt as a moment of national humiliation.
3 Also, reports today of columns of cars evacuating thousands of Armenian women and children from Karabakh, amidst new bombardment of Stepanakert and fears that the battle for Shusha/i could spread next to this town, down in the valley. Read here eurasianet.org/fears-of-civil…
Read 5 tweets

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