Aaaaaand there it is. The Energy Turnaround.

On the cusp of shutting off their cleanest, most reliable, and most prolific power plants, German utilities demand fossil fuel get classified as "clean" or the country may face extreme danger.
This is why German fossil fuel plant capacity is UP over twenty years despite adding 115 GW of wind and solar.

One hundred. Fifteen. Gigawatts. Hundreds of billions of euro.

Just to desperately beg for more fossil fuel investment to save the country.
Germany is now tipping into a negative capacity time for its clean energy. Without passing emergency subsidies for old wind turbines, they'll exit. Nuclear exit is jumping 8 fold over next two years compared to the past five.

Solar coming in barely faster than old solar aging.
When I talk to folks in developing countries, I hear about energy ministers and top advisors in thrall to the German "success story".

This is the year the word will get out: the reason Germany wants you to buy renewables is to sell it to you, not because it's working at home.
"Germany is also under fire from most EU members and environmentalists for...Nord Stream 2, which will transport gas from Russia directly to Germany...On the other hand, Germany is about to exit nuclear power and lobbied against a green label for the technology..."

Says it all.
Who's going to get the angry podcast rant version of this thread?

👹

get your bids in

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More from @energybants

16 Apr
Noah making a common mistake. (Thread)

Because each wind or solar project is so much smaller and cheaper than nuclear, it intuitively seems cheap to build a lot.

As one-off nuclear plants suffer wild cost escalations, we intuitively think building lots will be too costly.
What actually happens in reality to the cost of electricity from building out a fleet of reactors is that electricity gets cheap, partly due to how cheap building fleets of reactors is!

When workers and managers get experience, and supply chains flow, something magic happens.
One one hand, take Texas, where ~$60 billion of wind and solar dropped to as low as 1% of demand in Feb's life-and-death weather. Even $200 billion more on wind/solar wouldn't fix this.

In France, ~$131 B (USD 2021) nuclear fleet never falls below 50% and provides 70% total TWh.
Read 8 tweets
15 Oct 20
Let's have this a little louder: Natural gas generation speculators are outright saying they ONLY INVESTED IN NATURAL GAS because they were SURE that nuclear plants would die.

Let's be even more explicit: the investment in natural gas was to *ENSURE* nuclear would die. (thread)
Nuclear plants need long stable investment horizons, to secure staffing and long-lead-time upgrade parts and services.

Natural gas speculators aggressively enter capacity auctions knowing their investments don't make sense unless they can ensure that local nuclear is killed.
This is happening over and over around the country. In fact, this is the real reason that "deregulated" markets were set up a few decades ago: to shift rents to new natural gas, wind, and solar entrants, away from existing power plants like our nuclear fleet.
Read 8 tweets

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