Thread by @mafevema

1/17 This is such an interesting article by John Curtice on Labour's post-Brexit electoral strategy. It stop short of recommandations but the general line is clear.
I recommend reading the whole analysis but some extracts/summary below.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…

2/According to the dominant narrative - confirmed by the unimaginative Fabian Society paper published this week by a number of Labour MPs- the route back to power rests on the party winning back as many of the party's traditional working‐class ‘red wall’ seats as possible.

3/The argument is that Labour needs to focus on reversing its losses among traditional working‐class voters, steering away from the near anti‐Brexit stance the party had come to embrace by the time of the 2019 election & preferably away from the issue of Brexit entirely.

4/Labour's strategy is to focus on the voters it lost. However an equally important question is “Why was Labour less adept than the Conservatives at adapting to the politics of Brexit?” The votes show that the Conservatives didn't win by persuading voters of the merits of Brexit.

5/Only 47 per cent of the total vote in Great Britain was cast for parties that backed Brexit, while 52 per cent was given to those who were supporting a second referendum, showing a narrow majority in favour of Remain. The Tories'sucess was in persuading most Leave supporters to

6/back them while Labour failed to achieve the same degree of success among Remain voters. 79% of Leave voters backed the Tories whereas only around half (49%) of Remain voters backed Labour. If Labour had achieved among Remain voters the Tories’ success among Leave voters,

7/the party would have outpolled Boris Johnson and been in a position to oust him from power.This is of course due to the division of the opposition parties whereas the Tories benefited from the withdrawal of the Brexit party. Further, 64 per cent of Labour's support in pro‐Leave

8/seats came from Remain supporters. So any success in winning back red wall seats will be heavily reliant on retaining the support of the Remain vote. For Curtice, the roots of the Labour party's failure lay in its attempt to ride both Brexit horses - Leave & Remain

9/It failed to command sufficient support from Remain voters & to stem losses from Leave voters for whom "Get Brexit done" was more appealing. The Brexit divide requires Labour to choose & given that the Conservatives have chosen Leave & 80 per cent of Labour's vote now comes

10/from Remain supporters, the only realistic choice open to the party is to craft an appeal that will maintain & enhance its support among Remain voters, be they working class or not. The party is hoping that Brexit & the culture war which goes with it will no longer be a

11/primary concern & therefore that Labour can unite its current pro‐Remain electorate & its lost pro‐Leave support around a left‐of‐centre economic message. @keirstarmer has claimed that the UK's relationship with the EU will not be an issue at the next GE. But the Conservatives

12/ will continue to (misleadingly) extoll the benefits of Brexit & to provoke the cultural divide which works for them. Meanwhile the @LibDems, @TheGreenParty & @snp will continue with their clearer pro-EU message, eroding @UKLabour support among socially liberal Remain voters.

13/John Curtice does not suggest a solution to this connendrum. But, short of the annihilation of the SNP, the LibDems & the Greens - a dearly held dream in Labour circles- or unless they commit hara-kiri for Labour's benefit - unlikely I would say-

14/ there is only one apparent solution: an alliance between opposition parties. The earlier it is negotiated, the more stable & acceptable to voters it will be. To spring such an alliance at the last minute upon unprepared voters would be disastrous

15/& would smack purely of electoral expediency. The Alliance must have a coherent programme - pro-democracy &PR, pro-green, pro-social justice & fairness-. All these parties can find sufficient #CommonGrounds to agree such a core programme while retaining their distinctiveness

16/All can agree that a closer pragmatic relationship with the EU is a must while steering clear of rejoining. These new politics would enthuse many voters fed up with casting votes which don't count. It would allow each party to concentrate on its strengths in marginal seats

17/I know I sound like a broken record. But success in politics lies with dealing with the world as it is, not as you wish it to be. This is the only realistic route to electoral success & the sooner Labour recognises this, the better for us all. /END